Late Tuesday after, CNBC reported that the National Association Of Realtors released a statement acknowledging that their home sales reports have been OVER-COUNTED since January of 2007. That means everybody who relies on REALTOR reports for the US housing markets now knows that things are worse than they previously thought. Who would have thought such a thing could occur? [insert dripping sarcasm tone]
All the sales and inventory data that have been reported since January 2007 are being downwardly revised. Sales were weaker than people thought -NAR spokesman Walter Malony
Basically, the NAR does not cull all of the home sales data that is readily available from the MLS systems nationwide and report from these figures, they gather a sampling and then have a benchmarking algorithm that supposedly provides a fair interpretation of the overall market. This was a great system to have in 1950, when all MLS’s were paper-based, but perhaps they should consider something a little more current.
Can We Really Trust NAR?
Long-time readers of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog know that I report the NAR spin each month that Lawrence Yun produces in order to tell the public why the most recent set of housing market data is good news. While I understand they are the lobby for the REALTOR organization, I do not think an organization (My Organization!) should put themselves in a position to purposely misguide its 1+ million members who need to have an awareness of the market so as to council their clients.
For readers who do not really follow regular housing reports, each month it goes something like this:
On Board The NAR Titanic
Ship Hand: Captain, Icebergs ahead!
Lawrence Yun: It’s a sunny afternoon, it’s a great day to be cruising the Atlantic!
Ship Hand: Captain, contact imminent!
Lawrence Yun: Actually, icebergs exist all through this area, it’s a great day to be cruising the Atlantic!
Ship Hand: Captain, we’ve struck an iceberg. We’re taking on water!
Lawrence Yun: All ships get wet, it’s a great day to be cruising the Atlantic!
Ship Hand: Sir, we’ve run out of life boats …
Lawrence Yun: The Titanic is un-sinkable, it’s a great day to be cruising the Atlantic!
OK, perhaps a bit over-stated (pardon the pun), but I gave up trusting NAR long ago. I know that the Tallahassee real estate market is a relatively small market (when compared to NYC, Chicago, etc.), but we have been a fair bellweather for the rest of the housing markets and I will trust what I can measure. I not only look at data from the Tallahassee MLS, but I also compare it to the Tax records which records all of the property transfers in our housing market. This means that the reports I pull are as accurate as can be prepared.
Our pledge at the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog is to provide charts, graphs, and analysis of the housing market, without the spin. You can always leave comments below each blog post, and we make certain to follow-up with any questions. If you are in a position to be selling a home or buying a home, we can help you apply this market knowledge to your tactical advantage when it comes time to “making the best deal possible.”
