Tallahassee Real Estate Blog - Reader Response Requested

Perhaps the most comforting point I’ve read, Greg, is that you’ll check back in the next 6 months. Please wait that long or longer. Let the rest of us have intelligent debates without emotion and attacks.

Also, your own statement that a home in Ox Bottom that once sold for $220/sq is now only worth $120/sq shows a decline of nearly 50%! Per your report Meredith Whitney predicted a 40% decline. Therefore, your own example states that we’re at the bottom of the market.

Now, I’m not too naive to believe that we’re at the bottom of the market, and most people, including yourself and Joe, agree. I do appreciate exact data from the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog so that I can form my own educated opinion.

Finally, one point that I think everyone overlooks is America’s spending habits. We all agree that some buyers and sellers will make a move in the market no matter what is happening, e.g., job relocation, divorce decree that stipulates selling home, death in family, etc. The discretionary buyers, i,e. those who don’t have to move but would like to, have been told (and rightly so) not to buy in 2007, 2008, and likely 2009. Will the average American really choose to put off what they want to purchase for 3 years? Can we trust that Americans really will wait until the right time to buy? It is my opinion that if the financial markets show more liquidity, many people who have waited to purchase a home since the beginning of 2007 will decide to make their move. And, if I’m wrong, I’m sure there will be many people to let me know…

Greg,

I don’t think you’re being fair. Like you, I am a housing bear; I think home prices will continue to drop both locally and nationally. I can give you endless reasons why real estate is not a good investment going during the near term.

With that being said, I wonder if you have been reading Joe’s blog long. If you look at his posts at least the data presentation portion tends to be very objective – especially relative to any other blogs maintained by a Realtor. Sure, the conclusions of his analysis tend to be much more optimistic than you and I. However, relative to every other Realtor’s blog, which are filled with reckless Pollyannaish predictions, Joe’s analysis is always tempered with a level of conservatism.

The thing I like most about Joe’s blog is he presents the data both good and bad, something I have never seen another Realtor do. Most will only present positive data while completely omitting anything even remotely negative. And, I am thankful for Joe’s work because there certainly is no one else out there giving us the data – good and bad — on Tallahassee’s real estate market. Just look at this particular post – how often have you seen a Realtor show a price graph like the one in this post?

And, if you need any more evidence of Joe’s relative objectivity, just look at your two comments. Joe did not need to post your comments. He could have just deleted them just like most other Realtors do to every critical remark I have ever left on a Realtor’s blog. At least Joe is willing to openly debate the direction of the market.

What do you expect from a Realtor’s blog? Do you expect to have a similar tone as Thehousingbublbleblog.com or Patrick.net (two other blogs I read daily)? Joe is in the business of selling homes and you should expect his tone to be optimistic towards real estate. If you were in the market for a Realtor to buy, sell, or even rent a home, would you want to use someone who was overly pessimistic about the future for real estate?

As a disclaimer, I have never met Joe. So, this isn’t one of his buddies coming to his defense. I’m just a fan of his blog, even if we don’t always agree on the direction of the market.

Joe,

Keep up the good work; I appreciated. And, just so you know, I have sent many Tallahassee residents to your site. Hopefully, it will eventually pay off for you in sales. I know when I am back in the market to buy real estate, I will be contacting you (Don’t get too excited; I think Tally’s bottom is still two years off. So, it will be a while).

Thanks.

Anna,

Meredith Whitney's prediction is a prediction of average decline. High end housing (i.e., those requiring a jumbo loan) is and will be hit far worse. The Wooded Gorge house in yesterday's report sold for 120/sq foot. It's not unreasonable to think that that house would have sold for 220/sq foot two years ago. Thus, my hypothetical was reasonable.

Steve,

While I agree that Joe's blog is less biased than the typical realtor blog, I think it remains obviously biased. Further, because Joe's arguments appear intellectual, they are actually significantly more dangerous to readers than the typical junk. For example consider his argument about mortgage rates which is effectively: buy now ("at the right price")cause even if prices drop, mortgage rates will be higher in the future so you'll be in worse shape buying later. This is disingenuous as Joe himself surely knows--mortgage rate increases will themselves further reduce home prices.

On your question about what kind of realtor I'd want: I'd want someone to give me his best prediction as to what's going to happen in the future so that I can make the best decision as to what to do right now. This is true whether I'm a buyer or a seller. It does me no good to hear fairy tale stories not grounded in reality. I read a bit too much of that in this blog.

Greg said, "Further, because Joe’s arguments appear intellectual, they are actually significantly more dangerous to readers than the typical junk."

Good point.
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Hey Joe,

Can you dumb it down for me please? I don't want you to confuse me with all of your intellectual fancy words and charts. I like pictures, but not the kinds with numbers in them.

Thanks,

Jim Six Pack