What Everybody Ought To Know About The Average Home

In yesterday's blog, I chose to revisit an old blog topic and wrote "Time to Revisit The 3000 Square Foot House." This was a follow-up article to one that I wrote in July about what has happened to the 3000 square foot house. The article was inspired by a question that I had received from a relocation company that wanted some background information about the Tallahassee real estate market and felt that a good litmus test would be to see some history of home pricing for 3000 square foot homes.

Tallahassee Home Inventory Holding Value

Fortunately, this type of research provides some residual information that is very valuable. In doing the data gathering for this blog, I decided to take all the home sales in Leon County (Tallahassee real estate market) from the Tallahassee MLS and break them down into five size groups (1000,2000,3000,4000 & 5000 square feet). For example, the 4000 square foot homes in Tallahassee group was compiled from all homes sized from 3600 to 4400 square feet.

What this shows is rather amazing. Unit sales are down anywhere from 42% to 58%, yet prices have only come down very little. I think this is a sign that there is still a lot of room for prices to diminish, but the key to that will be inventory levels (and whether they continue to reduce). If inventory levels continue to drop, it will ease the pressure on pricing, and that is why we track Tallahassee home inventory levels on a daily basis.

Tallahassee Average Home Trails The Market Trends

When we graph the above information, we find that the "2000 square foot house" is doing worse than the other categories. Since the majority of our sales fall in this category, we can see why the overall market is down over 50% from peak to now.

Tallahassee Home Inventory Trends Graph

Tallahassee Home Sales Trend By Home Size

This final real estate graph shows how the greatest impact of falling unit sales has been centered on the 2000 square foot home. With this portion of the market approaching a 60% reduction from the top of the market, it has had a huge impact on the overall market figures.

Tallahassee Area Home Sales Graph 2

Again, the key to finding the bottom will be aligned with inventory movement in the Tallahassee real estate market. Our consistent monitoring of the flows of homes both on and off the market will give us all the insight necessary to determine the turn in the Tallahassee housing market.

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#1 By Joe Manausa at 7/11/2017 3:48 AM

Thanks Brittney. I think a significant drop in inventories will "protect" prices, whereas no significant movement in inventories will "flush" the super-motivated sellers into the open, thus making them reduce their prices to entice a buyer.

Every market contains discretionary and non-discretionary buyers. Our current market contains very few discretionary buyers, but lower prices will entice them into the market.

This is normal. This is how market cycles move. To change from fear to greed, we must see prices move lower and the greed cycle of the market will develop.

#2 By Brittney Johnson at 7/11/2017 3:48 AM

I really enjoyed reading your blog. I am taking Macro Economics at FSU right now and when you were talking about if the inventory levels drop it will ease the pressure on pricing, it is exactly what we are discussing in class. How if you are to influence the supply/inventory then the result will be a change in prices. -Brittney
P.S. -Loved your graphs!

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