Here's What Zillow's Reporting About The Housing Market

Report on the US housing market is done from Zillow data aloneIn case you didn't know, Zillow is a website that has homes for sale and homes for rent for most markets in the US. While one could argue about their methodology for selling your contact information to real estate companies, nobody can deny the breadth of the data that Zillow collects.

One of the hardest things about reporting on the US housing market is finding reputable data sources that can give us what we need to properly evaluate current conditions, but I'm becoming a believer in the data that Zillow shares on the backend of its website.

This report on the US housing market is primarily supported by data supplied by Zillow, and it provides enough information for us to draw a logical forecast of what to expect in the months and years to come.

Zillow Housing Market Update

US Home Sales Are Declining

The first graph in today's Zillow housing report shows a graph of the estimated number of unique properties sold each month.

Zillow's count of all US home sales February 2022

The blue bars measure the number of homes sold, while the yellow bars report the year-over-year change in sales. When the yellow bars rise about the horizontal axis, unit sales have grown. When the yellow bars fall below the horizontal axis, unit sales have declined.

January sales numbers show that for seven straight months, home sales have declined in the US. This is non-seasonal information, as each month's change is a comparison of the same month in two consecutive years. For example, the number of homes sold in January 2022 was 23% lower than the number of homes sold in January 2021.

The big question this graph raises is why are home sales declining?

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Mortgage Interest Rates Are Rising

This graph plots the average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate since 2016, and the most recent months might shed some light on the decline of home sales.

Average monthly mortgage interest rates February 2022

When I was preparing this graph on February 15, I checked the Mortgage News Daily website and it was reporting that the current rate was 4.1% while the one-year-ago rate was 2.86%, meaning that the cost of money for homebuyers has pushed up 43% in just one year.

Obviously, rising mortgage interest rates have cooled buyer demand, but I believe there is another factor that has caused the number of homes sold each month to decline for the past seven months.

Inventory Of Homes For Sale Is Declining

In this graph, Zillow is showing the unique listings that were active at any time in a given month since the beginning of 2019.

Zillow's inventory of US homes for sale February 2022

The blue field measures the number of listings, while the red line plots the year-over-year change in inventory. Look to where the red line crosses the dashed-blue line in 2019, as that is when the market shifted from inventory growth to inventory reduction.

In 2019, the market was already slightly skewed to sellers, as inventory levels were below six months of supply. As time moved forward, the low level of supply got continually worse and bidding wars among buyers became the norm.

The peak of the market inventories were 600,000+ homes too few, and homebuilder production has not yet stepped up to fill in the void, though there are signs that this might finally reverse in 2022.

I believe the historically low number of homes for sale has been a significant piece of the declining sales dilemma, as buyers have been trying to obtain loans before low mortgage interest rates go away forever. When you combine rising rates and declining inventories, it is no wonder that the number of home sales is falling.

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Median Home List Price Is Rising

This next graph plots the median price at which homes across the US were listed.

Zillow's measure of the median home list price February 2022

The blue field in the graph shows the median list price, while the red line shows Zillow's estimate of the median home sales price during the same time period.

The blue field shows there is a seasonal pattern on the median list price, with prices starting low at the beginning of the year, moving higher during the summer, and then falling slightly towards the end of the year. The median sales price does not move in a similar manner.

I believe this is showing us two things. First, home prices generally rise, so it makes sense that end-of-year asking prices are higher than the beginning of the year asking prices. Second, it shows that sellers who tried too high of an asking price earlier in the year, end up dropping their prices to get sold before the end of the year. Remember, a homeowner can ask any price that they like, but to get sold, they have to meet the market at the right price.

The red line shows that there is no actual inner-year cycle for prices, they just generally rise. The red line has been rising faster of late, and I believe we will not see any relief from the slope of sales prices until we start fixing the inventory shortage that has been wreaking havoc on the housing market since 2019.

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US Home Prices Are Soaring

This graph is Zillow's take on the median home price. Zillow explains the results as a smoothed, seasonally adjusted measure of the typical home value for single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops including market changes across the United States. It reflects the typical value of homes in the 35th to 65th percentile range. In other words, it approximates the median by swiping the middle-third of the market and analyzing it over time.

Zillow's Graph Of The Median Home Price February 2022

If you look closely at this graph, you'll see that Zillow has actually given us home values from 2000 through January of next year because their dataset includes past data plus a forecast that home values will rise 17.3% over the next twelve months

Zillow’s Home Value Index creates an inciteful image of how bad our housing market is behaving. Look at the slope of home value growth since 2020, it's toxically unhealthy. If you want some insight into what this price movement will do to the housing market, I urge you to watch some of my videos on home affordability. I suspect it's time to prepare for a move to a renter nation.

US Home Rental Rates Are Soaring

The final graph in today's Zillow Housing Report shows why we're not going to be able to fix this housing market in the same way the last one was fixed. This graph measures what Zillow refers to as the "typical observed market rental rate" and like the previous graph, takes a swipe from the middle of the market to approximate the median.

Zillow's measurement of the change in rental rates February 2022

The blue area measures the rental rate index each month (median rent) while the red line plots the year-over-year percentage change each month. It is this red line that should make your head spin.

As the inventory of homes for sale has declined, so too has the inventory of homes for rent. How do we know this? Well, in January, the median rental rate of $1,904 was nearly 15% higher than the median rental rate of $1,657 recorded in January of 2021. Can you imagine if your monthly rent was increased from $1,650 to $1,900 per month? If the rate remains the same over the next year, that same median unit will rent for $2,190 per month, a rent hike of more than $500 monthly in just two years!

What You Can Takeaway From The Zillow Housing Update

The previous graph is the smoking gun that lets us know just how troubled the housing market has become. When people get priced out of the "for sale" market, they no longer can turn to the "for rent" market, as they will be priced out of that too!

We have not been creating enough residential units to house our growing population, and unfortunately, inflation has pushed the cost of new construction to a level where the median home buyer cannot be served.

I am having a hard time finding a solution to what could be a severe turn towards a renter nation, where control of prices and rental rates move from "Main Street to Wall Street." If you feel like I'm overreacting or you have ideas for a solution, I welcome your comments below.

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Two terms have gained prominence over the past few years. NIMBY (Not In My Back Yard) and YIMBY (Yes, In My Back Yard) are labels that classify housing market activists into one of two camps
What Is The Definition Of Distressed Property?
What Is The Definition Of Distressed Property? I received this question from "Rich" who asked: Joe, what is your definition of a "Distressed Property" - foreclosure, disrepair, time on market, location? That's a great question because we have a ton of people who have registered to receive our regularly updated list of distressed properties for sale in Tallahassee, so I know the topic is very popular today. In fact, it’s not uncommon for people just entering the market to buy a home to be focused on distress
Four Smart Ways To Use A Real Estate Contract Assignment
Contract assignability allows buyers to give or sell their rights to another buyer, and that creates opportunity. Tune in to discover four reasons to assign a real estate contract (including contract assignment profits)
How HGTV Is Like Meth For Homebuyers
This is what I have observed regarding the HGTV impact on buying a home and selling a home.
Housing - Do You Follow Your Gut (Or Analytics) In Housing?
I think the signs in the housing market are loud and clear, yet most real estate reports I read or view are missing the most critical factor in housing today.
Selling A Home In A Strong Sellers Market | AVOID This MISTAKE!
If you are getting ready to sell a home, you must avoid making a horrible mistake that I'm seeing every single day. As we continue in the midst of the strongest seller's market on record, one might assume that a home seller can do no wrong.
What Is Pre Marketing In Real Estate When Selling A Home?
What is pre-marketing in real estate when selling a home? When your home hits the market and it "goes live," how many buyers will be standing in line to get in? Will it look like an Apple store on the day the new iPhone is released? If not, why not? ... it's all in the video ??????
How To Determine The Value Of A Home With An Enclosed Garage
What is an enclosed garage worth? The evaluation is not always simple. There are many things that go into deciding how much extra value it adds.
Market Equilibrium, How The Balance Has Changed In Real Estate
The way we estimate housing market equilibrium has changed, and with it, the way the market is evaluated must change.
Who is responsible for determining the value of the home you want to buy?
If you are planning on buying a home now, or within the next three to six months, you are going to have all sorts of questions pop up for which you’ll want answers. Among the most important of these will have to do with figuring out what a home is worth. As a matter of fact, I was recently asked this question “Who is primarily responsible for determining the market value of the home you want to buy?” Questions about valuation are very common from buyers of all experience levels because nobody wants to overp
Need To Move? Buying vs. Renting Today
Wondering whether to buy a house or rent a house in 2022? I have created a simple real estate case study to help you make your next move confidently
How Often Do Home Prices Fall?
Are home prices falling? Will house prices fall soon? Home prices are soaring, buyers are having to pay above most sellers' asking prices, and the housing market feels just like a feeding frenzy during Shark Week on the Discovery Channel.
New Home Construction: Buy Now or Wait for Prices To Drop?
Is now the best time to buy a newly built home? Or should you wait for prices to drop? Today's report on timing the new construction market has the answers you seek!
How The Fed Funds Rate Impacts Mortgage Interest Rates
Concerned about mortgage rates? This video shows the history of the fed funds rate and mortgage interest rates to see if a correlation exists that we can use for a real estate forecast.
Will Assumable Mortgages Save Housing?
Will assumable mortgages save housing? Home affordability is becoming one of the hottest topics in the economy, but I was recently asked if assumable mortgages might bring some relief to homebuyers. This video shares what I think about how mortgage assumption will impact housing.
Real Estate Negotiation Strategies For Each Market Condition
If you mishandle the negotiation on a home, several things will possibly happen, and all of them are bad. First and foremost, you’ll leave money on the table through either the sales price or the terms that are negotiated. Today, buyers are losing out on homes they want to buy and it’s often due to poor positioning in the negotiation. And while we are in the midst of a historic sellers’ market, I’m seeing sellers leave money on the table even when they have multiple offers! #realestatenegotiation #homenegot
How Much Should You Put Down On A House?
Need some downpayment advice? Want to know what to put down on a house? There are issues you might not have considered when determining a home down payment, but my home buying tips include a side-by-side comparison of some options that will help you make the best decision.
How To Get A Good Deal On A Home
Watch this short video before you buy a house to ensure you know whether to buy a home now or wait! This is the smart way to get a good deal on a house today.
Selling A Home In 2022? The Most Important Question You Must Ask
There is one singular issue that stands above all others when selling a home in a strong sellers' market. In this video, I walk you through the question and best answer to the most important question you should ask when selling a home.
Is Home Ownership A Hedge Against Inflation?
Could homeownership today still be a smart hedge against inflation? This is a study of real estate during inflation.
10 Home Inspection Issues And Tips
Moving from one home to another has enough stress and chaos built into the entire affair, and the home inspection is often the biggest stressor. Here's how to avoid home inspection stress!
Real Estate Appraisal Versus Fair Market Value Of A Home?
What is the difference between a real estate appraisal and the fair market value of a home? If there is one practice that confounds both home buyers and home sellers alike it's the fact that the majority of real estate transactions close at the mercy of an appraisal conducted for a purpose that most consumers do not consider. Understanding these differences will save you money when it comes to buying or selling a home, and it will help you appreciate the need and value of a real estate appraisal. But here’s
Top 7 Ways To Market Your Home For Sale Using Technology
Technology has opened up a world of possibilities for homeowners looking to market their property and attract potential buyers. In this video, we'll be sharing the top 7 ways to use technology to market your home for sale.
What You Should Know About School Zones When Buying A Home
What You Should Know About School Zones When Buying A Home - Buyers always ask about school zones, even when they do not have school-aged children. They understand that homes in the highest-rated school zones often fetch the most money, so they believe they are putting themselves in the best position for a future sale by purchasing a home in an acceptable school zone today. Unfortunately, this logic is flawed. If you are buying a home with no need for a school yet plan on including your opinion of the publi
Buy A Home Now Or Wait For 2024?
Are Home Prices Dropping? Will Rising Mortgage Interest Rates Bring Falling Home Prices? If you have been waiting for falling home prices, this is a very important video for you. Do you buy a home now or wait for 2023?
What Is A Real Estate Hot Sheet?
What Is A Real Estate Hotsheet? - When agents are new to the real estate industry, they are trained to monitor the " MLS Hot Sheet" every morning in order to stay informed of the inventory changes. So what is a real estate hot sheet, and can non-Realtors get access to it? ?? Link to the current real estate Hot Sheet: https://www.TallahasseeHotSheet.com Up until now, the hot sheet was proprietary information only available to paid members of the MLS. But recognizing that inventory is so low in the Tallahass
Leveraging Seller Financing to Expand Market Opportunities
Owner financing explained, also known as seller financing or seller carryback, is a creative alternative to traditional mortgage financing for real estate.
Ugly Real Estate Listing Pictures | Real Estate Photography Tips
I’ve got some funny, ugly real estate listing pictures to share with you today, along with some simple real estate photography tips. Take a humorous look at some of the WORST pictures I have seen used when marketing a home ... not the way to sell your house!
How To Sell A Home That Needs Repairs
How To Sell A Home That Needs Repairs - If you want to know how to sell a fixer upper house fast, then there are some fundamentals of selling a fixer-upper that you should understand. Ideally, in real estate sales, when selling a home, you should bring a house to market-condition before you sell your house fast in order to attain top dollar during the sale. But ideal situations are not always possible. If you follow the tips and advice in this video, you will know how to sell a fixer-upper house fast and in
First Right Of Refusal Meaning Explained
What is a right of first refusal? What does first right of refusal mean when dealing with a real estate contract? Accepting real estate contingencies without understanding them often causes home sellers problems. I have shared a real-world example of how we handled a first right of refusal real estate contract negotiation, and the decision-making process used to put the home seller in the best situation possible. Pay close attention to this short video and you’ll have a better understanding of the right to
What Does A Transaction Coordinator Do?
When you are selling a home or buying a home, a critical member of your support team is your transaction coordinator. Here's what to expect!
What Is A Seller's Market In Real Estate?
You might have heard that we have a huge seller’s market right now in real estate. Do you know what that means? This real estate frequently asked question comes up from time to time when somebody is buying a home or selling a home. They want to know if its a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. Is now a good time to buy a home in the Tallahassee real estate market? I have prepared this short video to demonstrate the conditions that make this a seller’s market, and then we’ll show you the numbers and how we
How Much Margin For Negotiation Should I Include In My Asking Price?
I was recently asked "How much margin for negotiation should I include in my asking price?" This is a common question from experienced home sellers. They have sold homes in the past and understand the negotiation process involves a game of give and take, so doesn’t it make good sense to start with a little wiggle room in your price so that you can give it to the buyer to secure a sale? Here's what you should know. I explain EXACTLY how much margin for negotiation you should add to the price of your home t
How Long Does It Take To Sell A Home In 2021?
How long does it take a home to sell in 2021? I've been asked this question a lot recently, and it made me realize a full explanation was in order. Why? Because if you understood how to sell a home for top dollar, you would know that it is a trick question. Trust me on this. Invest the few minutes it takes to watch the video and you'll have a better understanding of selling a home than do most people in the real estate industry (and I'll prove it!).
20 Percent Down On A Home?
Learn how to decide how much you should put down on a house. Here is some down payment advice that might help you keep some cash in your pocket.
How Many Times Will A Home Seller Counter Offer?
This real estate frequently asked question is from a recent home buyer. If you are about to buy a home in Tallahassee Florida or beyond and you’re trying to better understand how the real estate negotiation process will work, then understanding how to better control the negotiation is going to keep some of your hard-earned money in your pocket!
Real Estate Is Local - What This Means!
If you plan on buying a home, or selling a home, you’ll want to understand the local nature of real estate and use it to your advantage.
5 Ways To Handle The House In A Divorce
If there is one thing that I see divorcing couples doing wrong more often than not, it is the decision on how to handle the house where the couple has lived. While I am not a lawyer and I'm not dispensing legal advice, take it from somebody who has helped hundreds of divorcing couples, there is a right way (and FOUR wrong ways) to handle the house in a divorce. Tell your attorney that you want to do it right!
What Is A Swimming Pool Worth?
What Is A Swimming Pool Worth? Recently, a customer buying a home asked me a simple question. She inquired “how much does a pool add to the value of a home?” Pretty simple question, right? Well, by the end of this short video, you’ll know the not-so-simple answer (and why this is so important).
How Digital Has Changed How We Sell A Home Today
Time to sell a home? The digital age has had a huge impact on what homeowners must do to get top dollar when selling their home. In this video, Joe Manausa explains why and how things have changed, and then lays out the plan for what home sellers must do.
How To Subscribe To The Joe Manausa Real Estate Channel On YouTube
Have you subscribed to the Joe Manausa Real Estate Channel on YouTube? It's a "must" for people who are planning to sell or buy a home in the near future. Just click subscribe to get started, and the bell icon, so that you never miss anything!
How To Buy Your First Home - Step By Step
How To Buy Your First Home - Step By Step - The home buying process from start to finish. Walkthrough the entire homebuying process, great for first time homebuyers and anyone buying a home this year. This is Home Buying 101.
Get More Money For Your Home
In order to understand how to get more money from a house sale, one must learn about the neighborhood stalker.
Are Wages Keeping Up With Rising Home Prices
Home prices are rising. Mortgage interest rates are rising. Are people earning enough money to buy homes today, or is the home affordability crisis getting worse?
Do's And Don'ts During The Home Loan Process
During the home loan process, you'll want to avoid negatively impacting your loan pre-approval in any way

Your Local Expert In Tallahassee

When moving to, in, or from Tallahassee, you will fare better if you work with a local expert. We are here to help. If you have further questions on the Tallahassee real estate market, you can leave a comment below, give us a call at (850) 366-8917, or drop us a note and we'll give you the local information needed to ensure a successful, smooth transaction.

As a local born and raised in Tallahassee with a focus on customer service, I promise you'll find great success when working with Joe Manausa Real Estate, just as have our past customers. You can read thousands of their reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow right here: Real Estate Agent Reviews Tallahassee.

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