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Housing Report Yields One Pleasant Surprise

We love to get questions and comments from our readers, as they often times lead to the best blog posts on the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog. After reading yesterday's blog regarding the appreciation rates of homes in Tallahassee, sorted by size ranges, we received the following comment from reader "Brad" who wrote:

This is pretty interesting. I wonder if there is a correlation to amount of sales. I guess you would have to calculate the % increase or drop in amount of sales just like you did with price. This might show us which segments the current market thinks are over/under priced.

As a quick review from yesterday's analysis, I created the following ranges in order to break down all Tallahassee home sales into size ranges that could be used to gather some information.

Tallahassee Home Sizes

Description Heading
Homes that are less than 1,000 square feet < 1,000 Sqft
Homes sized between 1,000 and 1,500 square feet 1,000 - 1,499 Sqft
Homes sized between 1,500 and 2,000 square feet 1,500 - 1,999 Sqft
Homes sized between 2,000 and 2,500 square feet 2,000 - 2,499 Sqft
Homes sized between 2,500 and 3,000 square feet 2,500 - 2,999 Sqft
Homes that are greater than 3,000 square feet > 3,000 Sqft

Yesterday we used these categories to measure the depreciation trend across each size range, today we used them to measure how far each one has declined (in number of home sales) over the past year. Would you believe that one was slightly positive?

Tallahassee Existing Home Sales Continue Decline

The real estate graph below shows that each size range, except one, has seen a fairly large decline in home sales trend over the past 12 months.

Tallahassee Home Sales By Size

Tallahassee Housing Unit Sales Trends - By Size

As you can see, 5 of the 6 ranges of home sizes in Tallahassee has experienced falling home sales over the past twelve months. The hardest hit were the smaller homes (< 1,000 Sqft), while homes sized greater than 3,000 square feet were slightly above zero!  The following table shows a breakdown from the information above:

Description Results
Homes that are less than 1,000 square feet -61%
Homes sized between 1,000 and 1,500 square feet -38%
Homes sized between 1,500 and 2,000 square feet -17%
Homes sized between 2,000 and 2,500 square feet -30%
Homes sized between 2,500 and 3,000 square feet -39%
Homes that are greater than 3,000 square feet -0%

Tallahassee Home Sales Trends Useful

So, putting the information on home value trends from yesterday, with the information on unit home sales trends from today, we get the following:

Home Sizes Unit Trend Price Trend
<1,000 Sqft -61% -21%
1,000-1,499 Sqft -38% -8%
1,500-1,999 Sqft -17% -8%
2,000-2,499 Sqft -30% -9%
2,500-2,999 Sqft -39% -5%
>3,000 Sqft 0% -6%

So, in a nutshell, we continue to see huge drops in home sales, with the exception of the largest homes. Bear in mind though, this is just the recent 12 months trend. Before we could draw a solid conclusion from this, we would have to run our trend line further back, to see if these results were due to over corrections from a prior period.

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Joe Manausa is a real estate blogger, a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Discussion

#1 By Brad at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

Great data. Thanks for taking the time to do it. I'm confused about why your price trend differs from the data yesterday. Shouldn't it look more like below? Or was yesterday's listing price and today's is sold price?

Unit Sales Price Drop
3,000 0% -6%


Thanks again,

#2 By Brad at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

it didn't take my graph above, lets try this:

Unit Sales Price Drop
3,000 0% -6%

#3 By Joe Manausa at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

Thanks for the "heads up" Brad. I think I needed one more cup of coffee this a.m. It is fixed now.

#4 By Sarah R. at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

I am so surprised! I would have thought that smaller homes would have done better. Perhaps once you go below 1000 Sqft people people start getting more picky, since you are essentially buying a glorified apartment at that point.

#5 By Joe Manausa at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

Sarah, another part of this is the fact that "money" has left real estate, so the remaining investors have a lot to choose from. The glut in the smaller homes and townhomes is even causing investors to be more patient, thus the reduction in purchases is putting more pricing pressure on sellers. This will be magnified when the mass of foreclosures and short sales hit the market.

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