The Real Deal On Southwood Home Sales
A friend of mine asked me the other day "what's the real deal in Southwood?" I responded "The real deal?"
He said he heard all kinds of rumors about what is going on in Southwood, that taxes are up and values are down.
I told him that I would do a thorough analysis of the real estate market in Southwood, as I knew it would make great material for the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog.
So today we'll take an analytical tour of the supply and demand of homes in the Southwood neighborhood.
This post is packed full of information, including four (4) color graphs as well as two (2) important lists of homes. Make sure you click the continuation link below where it says "[click to see market graphs and list of homes in Southwood]"
There is a list of the homes that are currently on the market in Southwood, and there is a list of homes that are known to exist in the Southwood Shadow Inventory.
I believe my friend's question stemmed from an article in the Tallahassee Democrat on November 24th, where it was reported that Southwood was "getting low on inventory" and only 45 homes were on the market. Since I keep a regular eye on Southwood, I found that report to be amazing. And it was. In fact, it wasn't correct.
The good news is the number of homes for sale in Southwood (65 homes) represents about 9 months of supply, which is lower than last reported. Since the Tallahassee housing market is currently registering 13.7 months of supply (see Tallahassee Housing Report for November), Southwood can claim to be doing well better than average.
Supply and Demand Of Homes In Southwood
Unfortunately, a market at equilibrium usually registers at 6 months of supply, so I see continued pricing pressure for homeowners who wish to sell a home in Southwood. The following real estate graph shows homes for sale in Southwood and compares them to homes that failed to sell as well as homes that sold over the past 8 years.
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Home Values In Southwood
When we look at home values in Southwood, we see homes on the market that are priced higher than buyers are willing to pay, and prices are dropping. When we look at homes that failed to sell, we see pricing so far above the current market that it is no wonder that they didn't sell. The real estate graph below shows a disturbing trend of drastic depreciation of home values in Southwood. Right now, home prices in Southwood are comparable to where they were in 2003, whereas the Tallahassee housing market average is values comparing back to 2005.
Home Prices In Southwood
There is a growing separation between values of homes that sold versus homes that failed to sell. Buyers are looking to live in Southwood and pay around $270K, whereas there is a group of frustrated Southwood homeowners who are above the $380K range, and the current asking prices are averaging around $318K. There is a whole new trend of opportunity in Southwood for people wanting to pay less than $300K, and they are driving the bulk of Southwood home sales.
Larger Homes Slow To Sell In Southwood
While we are seeing inventory drop, it appears as if the smaller homes are selling while the larger homes are joining the "failed to sell" group. Note the growing separation between the red line ("failed to sell") and the green line ("homes that sold") in the graph of Southwood home sales below:
Southwood Homes In The Shadow Inventory
So, the real deal in Southwood is that the number of home sales is up over last year and inventory is fallen, but there is still a glut.Here is a list of homes that were on the market in the past year and failed to sell, and currently are not active listings in the Tallahassee MLS. That means that these homes are part of the shadow inventory of homes in Tallahassee.
| Address | Off Market Date | Status | Last Price | Original Price | Square Feet |
| 3644 BILTMORE AVE | 11/22/2009 | Failed To Sell | $219,900 | $248,000 | 1,416 |
| 4067 COLLETON CT | 11/17/2009 | Failed To Sell | $179,900 | $179,900 | 1,744 |
| 3286 Salinger Way | 11/15/2009 | Failed To Sell | $330,000 | $330,000 | 2,368 |
| 3142 BARINGER HILL DR | 11/5/2009 | Failed To Sell | $699,000 | $775,000 | 4,144 |
| 2123 Sunlight Terrace | 10/24/2009 | Failed To Sell | $351,900 | $367,000 | 2,756 |
| 3208 Whitman Way | 10/18/2009 | Failed To Sell | $379,900 | $379,900 | 2,325 |
| 2467 Rain Lily Way | 10/14/2009 | Failed To Sell | $370,000 | $370,000 | 2,281 |
| 4208 Grove Park Drive | 10/12/2009 | Failed To Sell | $299,900 | $330,000 | 2,241 |
| 4012 Shady View Lane | 10/2/2009 | Failed To Sell | $280,000 | $299,900 | 2,190 |
| 3753 Ivy Green Trail | 10/1/2009 | Failed To Sell | $348,500 | $348,500 | 2,250 |
| 4640 Grove Park Drive | 9/30/2009 | Failed To Sell | $715,000 | $750,000 | 3,449 |
| 3780 Biltmore Avenue | 9/16/2009 | Failed To Sell | $549,900 | $595,000 | 2,968 |
| 4200 Grove Park Drive | 9/12/2009 | Failed To Sell | $325,000 | $325,000 | 1,780 |
| 3252 Thoreau Avenue | 8/31/2009 | Failed To Sell | $439,900 | $469,900 | 2,767 |
| 4334 GROVE PARK DR | 8/19/2009 | Failed To Sell | $290,000 | $305,000 | 1,962 |
| 4251 Four Oaks Blvd | 8/15/2009 | Failed To Sell | $197,700 | $197,700 | 1,483 |
| 2570 Twain Drive | 8/9/2009 | Failed To Sell | $499,900 | $525,000 | 2,983 |
| 4031 Swift Way | 8/1/2009 | Failed To Sell | $289,500 | $289,500 | 1,780 |
| 3583 Mossy Creek Lane | 7/28/2009 | Failed To Sell | $998,000 | $1,227,000 | 4,444 |
| 3641 Longfellow Road | 7/23/2009 | Failed To Sell | $329,900 | $324,000 | 2,223 |
| 4218 Avon Park Circle | 7/17/2009 | Failed To Sell | $164,900 | $175,000 | 1,324 |
| 2501 Twain Drive | 7/16/2009 | Failed To Sell | $364,000 | $364,000 | 2,325 |
| 3576 Mossy Creek Lane | 7/13/2009 | Failed To Sell | $490,000 | $569,650 | 3,100 |
| 3157 MULBERRY PARK BLVD | 7/9/2009 | Failed To Sell | $179,900 | $184,900 | 1,324 |
| 3256 Newberry | 7/7/2009 | Failed To Sell | $259,900 | $259,900 | 1,771 |
| 3562 FOUR OAKS Boulevard | 7/6/2009 | Failed To Sell | $245,000 | $245,000 | 1,780 |
| 4269 Summertree Drive | 6/29/2009 | Failed To Sell | $259,900 | $265,000 | 1,625 |
| 4055 COLLETON Court | 6/13/2009 | Failed To Sell | $199,999 | $205,000 | 1,324 |
| 3683 Esplanade Way | 6/9/2009 | Failed To Sell | $239,000 | $249,000 | 1,605 |
| 3624 Biltmore Avenue | 5/27/2009 | Failed To Sell | $229,000 | $239,000 | 1,675 |
| 4252 RALEIGH Way | 5/23/2009 | Failed To Sell | $299,900 | $299,900 | 2,073 |
| 3121 Mist Flower Rd | 5/12/2009 | Failed To Sell | $230,000 | $269,900 | 1,643 |
| 3763 Longfellow Drive | 5/11/2009 | Failed To Sell | $459,900 | $459,900 | 2,891 |
| 3676 Biltmore Avenue | 5/8/2009 | Failed To Sell | $240,000 | $259,900 | 1,584 |
| 3167 ANDELUSIA AVE | 4/2/2009 | Failed To Sell | $359,000 | $359,000 | 2,368 |
| 3081 Surrat Lane | 3/16/2009 | Failed To Sell | $925,000 | $925,000 | 5,900 |
| 4065 Colleton Court | 3/3/2009 | Failed To Sell | $162,000 | $179,900 | 1,324 |
| 2979 Verdura Point Drive | 2/24/2009 | Failed To Sell | $274,900 | $274,900 | 1,643 |
| 4063 COLLETON Court | 2/19/2009 | Failed To Sell | $180,000 | $224,000 | 1,441 |
| 3772 IVY GREEN TRAIL | 2/17/2009 | Failed To Sell | $369,900 | $389,900 | 2,687 |
| 4260 SUMMERTREE DR | 2/12/2009 | Failed To Sell | $355,900 | $355,900 | 2,027 |
| 3254 Salinger Way | 2/5/2009 | Failed To Sell | $360,375 | $360,375 | 2,325 |
| 3161 Buckhead Trace | 2/3/2009 | Failed To Sell | $369,000 | $396,000 | 2,812 |
| 4274 Raleigh Way | 1/26/2009 | Failed To Sell | $262,900 | $262,900 | 1,692 |
| 3692 Overlook | 1/23/2009 | Failed To Sell | $474,900 | $474,900 | 2,662 |
| 3590 Four Oaks Blvd. | 1/19/2009 | Failed To Sell | $209,000 | $209,000 | 1,415 |
| 3300 Calumet Drive | 1/9/2009 | Failed To Sell | $264,900 | $299,900 | 1,544 |
| 3111 MULBERRY PARK | 1/8/2009 | Failed To Sell | $159,990 | $178,000 | 1,255 |
| 3771 Overlook Drive | 1/6/2009 | Failed To Sell | $498,500 | $525,000 | 3,050 |
| 3793 Esplanade Way | 1/3/2009 | Failed To Sell | $269,900 | $269,900 | 1,940 |
| 3606 Biltmore Ave | 1/1/2009 | Failed To Sell | $249,000 | $269,000 | 1,648 |
| 3778 PINEY GROVE DRIVE | 12/31/2008 | Failed To Sell | $560,000 | $559,900 | 3,191 |
| 3105 MULBERRY PARK | 12/11/2008 | Failed To Sell | $168,900 | $184,900 | 1,324 |
| 3258 APPLETON DRIVE | 12/9/2008 | Failed To Sell | $435,000 | $450,000 | 2,776 |
| 4302 Park Crossing Trail | 12/8/2008 | Failed To Sell | $219,900 | $234,900 | 1,441 |
| 3558 Four Oaks Blvd | 12/1/2008 | Failed To Sell | $249,900 | $259,900 | 1,680 |
| 4059 Colleton Court | 11/29/2008 | Failed To Sell | $198,500 | $198,500 | 1,483 |
| 3254 Belle Meade Trail | 11/26/2008 | Failed To Sell | $875,000 | $875,000 | 4,012 |
| 2566 Twain Drive | 11/25/2008 | Failed To Sell | $499,000 | $549,000 | 2,832 |
| 3771 LONGFELLOW ROAD | 11/4/2008 | Failed To Sell | $490,000 | $500,000 | 2,650 |
| 4028 SHADY VIEW LANE | 11/1/2008 | Failed To Sell | $259,900 | $279,900 | 1,953 |
Homes For Sale In Southwood
Below are the 65 homes for sale in Southwood, downloaded yesterday from the Tallahassee MLS. When you combine them with the 61 known "failed to sell" homes in the shadow inventory, you can see there are at least 126 homes available in Southwood. 128 homes represents about 13 months of supply at the current rate of home sales in Southwood.
| Address | List Price | Original Price | Square Feet | PPSFT |
| 4073Colleton Court | $150,900 | $150,900 | 1,483 | $102 |
| 3993Four Oaks Boulevard | $155,000 | $164,900 | 1,324 | $117 |
| 3996Shumard Oaks | $155,700 | $199,700 | 1,744 | $89 |
| 3972Grove Park Drive | $159,000 | $159,000 | 1,324 | $120 |
| 4086COLLETON CT | $164,000 | $164,000 | 1,324 | $124 |
| 4268Four Oaks Blvd | $164,839 | $164,839 | 1,551 | $106 |
| 4272Four Oaks Blvd | $164,893 | $164,893 | 1,551 | $106 |
| 4020Colleton Court | $164,990 | $164,990 | 1,324 | $125 |
| 4013COLLETON CT | $172,900 | $169,900 | 1,324 | $131 |
| 4290AVON PARK Circle | $189,500 | $197,500 | 1,324 | $143 |
| 3578Four Oaks Boulevard | $199,000 | $199,000 | 1,416 | $141 |
| 4307Four Oaks Boulevard | $199,000 | $199,000 | 1,744 | $114 |
| 3757Esplanade Way | $200,000 | $245,000 | 1,620 | $123 |
| 4264FOUR OAKS BLVD | $203,030 | $203,030 | 1,889 | $107 |
| 3080Indian Grass Lane | $209,900 | $209,900 | 1,393 | $151 |
| 3992Shumard Oaks | $210,700 | $227,700 | 1,744 | $121 |
| 4274Park Crossing Trail | $210,700 | $227,700 | 1,744 | $121 |
| 4276Four Oaks Blvd | $218,114 | $218,114 | 1,889 | $115 |
| 2404Rain Lily Way | $220,330 | $220,330 | 1,588 | $139 |
| 3661Esplanade Way | $224,900 | $228,000 | 1,782 | $126 |
| 3815Overlook Drive | $224,900 | $224,900 | 1,919 | $117 |
| 3174Coneflower Drive | $229,687 | $229,687 | 1,643 | $140 |
| 3124Mist Flower Road | $229,990 | $229,990 | 1,643 | $140 |
| 2412Rain Lily Way | $239,690 | $239,690 | 1,757 | $136 |
| 4240Raleigh Way | $239,900 | $249,900 | 1,605 | $149 |
| 3677ESPLANADE Way | $240,000 | $250,000 | 1,940 | $124 |
| 2108New Dawn Road | $249,900 | $249,900 | 2,219 | $113 |
| 2408Rain Lily Way | $250,035 | $250,035 | 2,093 | $119 |
| 3797Piney Grove | $264,900 | $264,900 | 2,333 | $114 |
| 4024Shady View Lane | $265,000 | $339,900 | 2,212 | $120 |
| 2995Verdura Point | $270,000 | $349,900 | 2,292 | $118 |
| 3978Grove Park Drive | $275,000 | $275,000 | 1,500 | $183 |
| 3244NewberryBoulevard | $279,900 | $279,900 | 2,080 | $135 |
| 2106Merrifield Lane | $280,000 | $300,000 | 2,462 | $114 |
| 4020Shady View Lane | $285,900 | $294,900 | 2,185 | $131 |
| 3245Dunleith Lane | $289,900 | $289,900 | 2,156 | $134 |
| 3254Stanhope Drive | $299,000 | $315,000 | 2,250 | $133 |
| 3614BILTMORE Avenue | $299,900 | $299,900 | 1,933 | $155 |
| 3712Riverton Trail | $299,900 | $335,000 | 2,251 | $133 |
| 4103Kipling Court | $315,000 | $315,000 | 2,368 | $133 |
| 3245Thoreau Avenue | $320,000 | $365,000 | 2,374 | $135 |
| 3163ANDELUSIA AVE | $325,000 | $325,000 | 2,228 | $146 |
| 2500Twain Drive | $329,000 | $343,000 | 2,250 | $146 |
| 3760Overlook Drive | $333,500 | $333,500 | 2,302 | $145 |
| 3226Salinger Way | $339,900 | $339,900 | 2,325 | $146 |
| 3247Carollton Drive | $339,900 | $329,900 | 2,862 | $119 |
| 2525Twain Drive | $349,900 | $370,000 | 2,530 | $138 |
| XXXXGrove Park Drive | $359,000 | $359,000 | 2,505 | $143 |
| 3792Wentworth Way | $359,900 | $359,900 | 2,819 | $128 |
| 3742Overlook Drive | $385,000 | $385,000 | 2,992 | $129 |
| 4146Faulkner Lane | $405,000 | $405,000 | 3,037 | $133 |
| 3666OVERLOOK DRIVE | $425,000 | $425,000 | 3,100 | $137 |
| 2119Sunlight Terrace | $450,000 | $395,000 | 2,626 | $171 |
| 3790Piney Grove Drive | $450,000 | $499,000 | 2,760 | $163 |
| 4122Fitzgerald Road | $459,900 | $459,900 | 2,800 | $164 |
| 3262Belle Meade Trail | $474,900 | $474,900 | 3,279 | $145 |
| 3271Endicott | $499,000 | $549,000 | 3,600 | $139 |
| 3678Overlook Drive | $499,900 | $499,900 | 3,577 | $140 |
| 3243Appleton Drive | $529,900 | $589,900 | 3,414 | $155 |
| 3572Mossy Creek Lane | $569,900 | $587,000 | 3,740 | $152 |
| 3134BARINGER HILL | $699,000 | $699,000 | 4,400 | $159 |
| 2565Twain Drive | $700,000 | $960,000 | 6,208 | $113 |
| 3162Dunbar Lane | $721,000 | $721,000 | 4,430 | $163 |
| 3631Mossy Creek Lane | $850,000 | $900,000 | 4,512 | $188 |
| 3640Mossy Creek | $925,000 | $925,000 | 5,186 | $178 |
Discussion
Your Real Deal on Southwood Home Sales was a real eye-opener. The Tallahassee Democrat article was wishful thinking and not well-researched.
Hey Marlie, welcome back!
Unfortunately, most newspapers just regurgitate pieces of press releases by the National Association of REALTORS, without studying any of the underlying reports.
Each and every neighborhood has unique markets that must be known in order to achieve the best results in your housing endeavors.
Lacour Lane is not in SouthWood.
Thanks Chris, it's been fixed.
I appreciate your honest approach to real estate. Very accurate facts, keep going!
Thank you Brian. Will do!
That's a lot of houses for sale and failing to sale. How many homes are in Southwood overall?
Thanks for giving us all the facts.
You are welcome Karen, and thanks for commenting!
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