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The Real Deal On Southwood Home Sales

4640 Grove Park A Home In Southwood Tallahassee FloridaA friend of mine asked me the other day "what's the real deal in Southwood?" I responded "The real deal?"

He said he heard all kinds of rumors about what is going on in Southwood, that taxes are up and values are down.

I told him that I would do a thorough analysis of the real estate market in Southwood, as I knew it would make great material for the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog.

So today we'll take an analytical tour of the supply and demand of homes in the Southwood neighborhood.

This post is packed full of information, including four (4) color graphs as well as two (2) important lists of homes. Make sure you click the continuation link below where it says "[click to see market graphs and list of homes in Southwood]"

There is a list of the homes that are currently on the market in Southwood, and there is a list of homes that are known to exist in the Southwood Shadow Inventory.

I believe my friend's question stemmed from an article in the Tallahassee Democrat on November 24th, where it was reported that Southwood was "getting low on inventory" and only 45 homes were on the market. Since I keep a regular eye on Southwood, I found that report to be amazing. And it was. In fact, it wasn't correct.

The good news is the number of homes for sale in Southwood (65 homes) represents about 9 months of supply, which is lower than last reported. Since the Tallahassee housing market is currently registering 13.7 months of supply (see Tallahassee Housing Report for November), Southwood can claim to be doing well better than average.

Supply and Demand Of Homes In Southwood

Unfortunately, a market at equilibrium usually registers at 6 months of supply, so I see continued pricing pressure for homeowners who wish to sell a home in Southwood. The following real estate graph shows homes for sale in Southwood and compares them to homes that failed to sell as well as homes that sold over the past 8 years.

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Real Estate Graph of Home Inventory In Southwood Tallahassee

Home Values In Southwood

When we look at home values in Southwood, we see homes on the market that are priced higher than buyers are willing to pay, and prices are dropping. When we look at homes that failed to sell, we see pricing so far above the current market that it is no wonder that they didn't sell. The real estate graph below shows a disturbing trend of drastic depreciation of home values in Southwood. Right now, home prices in Southwood are comparable to where they were in 2003, whereas the Tallahassee housing market average is values comparing back to 2005.

Real Estate Graph of Home Values In Southwood Tallahassee

Home Prices In Southwood

There is a growing separation between values of homes that sold versus homes that failed to sell. Buyers are looking to live in Southwood and pay around $270K, whereas there is a group of frustrated Southwood homeowners who are above the $380K range, and the current asking prices are averaging around $318K. There is a whole new trend of opportunity in Southwood for people wanting to pay less than $300K, and they are driving the bulk of Southwood home sales.

Real Estate Graph of Home Prices In Southwood Tallahassee

Larger Homes Slow To Sell In Southwood

While we are seeing inventory drop, it appears as if the smaller homes are selling while the larger homes are joining the "failed to sell" group. Note the growing separation between the red line ("failed to sell") and the green line ("homes that sold") in the graph of Southwood home sales below:

Real Estate Graph of Home Sizes In Southwood Tallahassee

Southwood Homes In The Shadow Inventory

So, the real deal in Southwood is that the number of home sales is up over last year and inventory is fallen, but there is still a glut.Here is a list of homes that were on the market in the past year and failed to sell, and currently are not active listings in the Tallahassee MLS. That means that these homes are part of the shadow inventory of homes in Tallahassee.

Address Off Market Date Status Last Price Original Price Square Feet
3644 BILTMORE AVE 11/22/2009 Failed To Sell $219,900 $248,000 1,416
4067 COLLETON CT 11/17/2009 Failed To Sell $179,900 $179,900 1,744
3286 Salinger Way 11/15/2009 Failed To Sell $330,000 $330,000 2,368
3142 BARINGER HILL DR 11/5/2009 Failed To Sell $699,000 $775,000 4,144
2123 Sunlight Terrace 10/24/2009 Failed To Sell $351,900 $367,000 2,756
3208 Whitman Way 10/18/2009 Failed To Sell $379,900 $379,900 2,325
2467 Rain Lily Way 10/14/2009 Failed To Sell $370,000 $370,000 2,281
4208 Grove Park Drive 10/12/2009 Failed To Sell $299,900 $330,000 2,241
4012 Shady View Lane 10/2/2009 Failed To Sell $280,000 $299,900 2,190
3753 Ivy Green Trail 10/1/2009 Failed To Sell $348,500 $348,500 2,250
4640 Grove Park Drive 9/30/2009 Failed To Sell $715,000 $750,000 3,449
3780 Biltmore Avenue 9/16/2009 Failed To Sell $549,900 $595,000 2,968
4200 Grove Park Drive 9/12/2009 Failed To Sell $325,000 $325,000 1,780
3252 Thoreau Avenue 8/31/2009 Failed To Sell $439,900 $469,900 2,767
4334 GROVE PARK DR 8/19/2009 Failed To Sell $290,000 $305,000 1,962
4251 Four Oaks Blvd 8/15/2009 Failed To Sell $197,700 $197,700 1,483
2570 Twain Drive 8/9/2009 Failed To Sell $499,900 $525,000 2,983
4031 Swift Way 8/1/2009 Failed To Sell $289,500 $289,500 1,780
3583 Mossy Creek Lane 7/28/2009 Failed To Sell $998,000 $1,227,000 4,444
3641 Longfellow Road 7/23/2009 Failed To Sell $329,900 $324,000 2,223
4218 Avon Park Circle 7/17/2009 Failed To Sell $164,900 $175,000 1,324
2501 Twain Drive 7/16/2009 Failed To Sell $364,000 $364,000 2,325
3576 Mossy Creek Lane 7/13/2009 Failed To Sell $490,000 $569,650 3,100
3157 MULBERRY PARK BLVD 7/9/2009 Failed To Sell $179,900 $184,900 1,324
3256 Newberry 7/7/2009 Failed To Sell $259,900 $259,900 1,771
3562 FOUR OAKS Boulevard 7/6/2009 Failed To Sell $245,000 $245,000 1,780
4269 Summertree Drive 6/29/2009 Failed To Sell $259,900 $265,000 1,625
4055 COLLETON Court 6/13/2009 Failed To Sell $199,999 $205,000 1,324
3683 Esplanade Way 6/9/2009 Failed To Sell $239,000 $249,000 1,605
3624 Biltmore Avenue 5/27/2009 Failed To Sell $229,000 $239,000 1,675
4252 RALEIGH Way 5/23/2009 Failed To Sell $299,900 $299,900 2,073
3121 Mist Flower Rd 5/12/2009 Failed To Sell $230,000 $269,900 1,643
3763 Longfellow Drive 5/11/2009 Failed To Sell $459,900 $459,900 2,891
3676 Biltmore Avenue 5/8/2009 Failed To Sell $240,000 $259,900 1,584
3167 ANDELUSIA AVE 4/2/2009 Failed To Sell $359,000 $359,000 2,368
3081 Surrat Lane 3/16/2009 Failed To Sell $925,000 $925,000 5,900
4065 Colleton Court 3/3/2009 Failed To Sell $162,000 $179,900 1,324
2979 Verdura Point Drive 2/24/2009 Failed To Sell $274,900 $274,900 1,643
4063 COLLETON Court 2/19/2009 Failed To Sell $180,000 $224,000 1,441
3772 IVY GREEN TRAIL 2/17/2009 Failed To Sell $369,900 $389,900 2,687
4260 SUMMERTREE DR 2/12/2009 Failed To Sell $355,900 $355,900 2,027
3254 Salinger Way 2/5/2009 Failed To Sell $360,375 $360,375 2,325
3161 Buckhead Trace 2/3/2009 Failed To Sell $369,000 $396,000 2,812
4274 Raleigh Way 1/26/2009 Failed To Sell $262,900 $262,900 1,692
3692 Overlook 1/23/2009 Failed To Sell $474,900 $474,900 2,662
3590 Four Oaks Blvd. 1/19/2009 Failed To Sell $209,000 $209,000 1,415
3300 Calumet Drive 1/9/2009 Failed To Sell $264,900 $299,900 1,544
3111 MULBERRY PARK 1/8/2009 Failed To Sell $159,990 $178,000 1,255
3771 Overlook Drive 1/6/2009 Failed To Sell $498,500 $525,000 3,050
3793 Esplanade Way 1/3/2009 Failed To Sell $269,900 $269,900 1,940
3606 Biltmore Ave 1/1/2009 Failed To Sell $249,000 $269,000 1,648
3778 PINEY GROVE DRIVE 12/31/2008 Failed To Sell $560,000 $559,900 3,191
3105 MULBERRY PARK 12/11/2008 Failed To Sell $168,900 $184,900 1,324
3258 APPLETON DRIVE 12/9/2008 Failed To Sell $435,000 $450,000 2,776
4302 Park Crossing Trail 12/8/2008 Failed To Sell $219,900 $234,900 1,441
3558 Four Oaks Blvd 12/1/2008 Failed To Sell $249,900 $259,900 1,680
4059 Colleton Court 11/29/2008 Failed To Sell $198,500 $198,500 1,483
3254 Belle Meade Trail 11/26/2008 Failed To Sell $875,000 $875,000 4,012
2566 Twain Drive 11/25/2008 Failed To Sell $499,000 $549,000 2,832
3771 LONGFELLOW ROAD 11/4/2008 Failed To Sell $490,000 $500,000 2,650
4028 SHADY VIEW LANE 11/1/2008 Failed To Sell $259,900 $279,900 1,953

Homes For Sale In Southwood

Below are the 65 homes for sale in Southwood, downloaded yesterday from the Tallahassee MLS. When you combine them with the 61 known "failed to sell" homes in the shadow inventory, you can see there are at least 126 homes available in Southwood. 128 homes represents about 13 months of supply at the current rate of home sales in Southwood.

Address List Price Original Price Square Feet PPSFT
4073Colleton Court $150,900 $150,900 1,483 $102
3993Four Oaks Boulevard $155,000 $164,900 1,324 $117
3996Shumard Oaks $155,700 $199,700 1,744 $89
3972Grove Park Drive $159,000 $159,000 1,324 $120
4086COLLETON CT $164,000 $164,000 1,324 $124
4268Four Oaks Blvd $164,839 $164,839 1,551 $106
4272Four Oaks Blvd $164,893 $164,893 1,551 $106
4020Colleton Court $164,990 $164,990 1,324 $125
4013COLLETON CT $172,900 $169,900 1,324 $131
4290AVON PARK Circle $189,500 $197,500 1,324 $143
3578Four Oaks Boulevard $199,000 $199,000 1,416 $141
4307Four Oaks Boulevard $199,000 $199,000 1,744 $114
3757Esplanade Way $200,000 $245,000 1,620 $123
4264FOUR OAKS BLVD $203,030 $203,030 1,889 $107
3080Indian Grass Lane $209,900 $209,900 1,393 $151
3992Shumard Oaks $210,700 $227,700 1,744 $121
4274Park Crossing Trail $210,700 $227,700 1,744 $121
4276Four Oaks Blvd $218,114 $218,114 1,889 $115
2404Rain Lily Way $220,330 $220,330 1,588 $139
3661Esplanade Way $224,900 $228,000 1,782 $126
3815Overlook Drive $224,900 $224,900 1,919 $117
3174Coneflower Drive $229,687 $229,687 1,643 $140
3124Mist Flower Road $229,990 $229,990 1,643 $140
2412Rain Lily Way $239,690 $239,690 1,757 $136
4240Raleigh Way $239,900 $249,900 1,605 $149
3677ESPLANADE Way $240,000 $250,000 1,940 $124
2108New Dawn Road $249,900 $249,900 2,219 $113
2408Rain Lily Way $250,035 $250,035 2,093 $119
3797Piney Grove $264,900 $264,900 2,333 $114
4024Shady View Lane $265,000 $339,900 2,212 $120
2995Verdura Point $270,000 $349,900 2,292 $118
3978Grove Park Drive $275,000 $275,000 1,500 $183
3244NewberryBoulevard $279,900 $279,900 2,080 $135
2106Merrifield Lane $280,000 $300,000 2,462 $114
4020Shady View Lane $285,900 $294,900 2,185 $131
3245Dunleith Lane $289,900 $289,900 2,156 $134
3254Stanhope Drive $299,000 $315,000 2,250 $133
3614BILTMORE Avenue $299,900 $299,900 1,933 $155
3712Riverton Trail $299,900 $335,000 2,251 $133
4103Kipling Court $315,000 $315,000 2,368 $133
3245Thoreau Avenue $320,000 $365,000 2,374 $135
3163ANDELUSIA AVE $325,000 $325,000 2,228 $146
2500Twain Drive $329,000 $343,000 2,250 $146
3760Overlook Drive $333,500 $333,500 2,302 $145
3226Salinger Way $339,900 $339,900 2,325 $146
3247Carollton Drive $339,900 $329,900 2,862 $119
2525Twain Drive $349,900 $370,000 2,530 $138
XXXXGrove Park Drive $359,000 $359,000 2,505 $143
3792Wentworth Way $359,900 $359,900 2,819 $128
3742Overlook Drive $385,000 $385,000 2,992 $129
4146Faulkner Lane $405,000 $405,000 3,037 $133
3666OVERLOOK DRIVE $425,000 $425,000 3,100 $137
2119Sunlight Terrace $450,000 $395,000 2,626 $171
3790Piney Grove Drive $450,000 $499,000 2,760 $163
4122Fitzgerald Road $459,900 $459,900 2,800 $164
3262Belle Meade Trail $474,900 $474,900 3,279 $145
3271Endicott $499,000 $549,000 3,600 $139
3678Overlook Drive $499,900 $499,900 3,577 $140
3243Appleton Drive $529,900 $589,900 3,414 $155
3572Mossy Creek Lane $569,900 $587,000 3,740 $152
3134BARINGER HILL $699,000 $699,000 4,400 $159
2565Twain Drive $700,000 $960,000 6,208 $113
3162Dunbar Lane $721,000 $721,000 4,430 $163
3631Mossy Creek Lane $850,000 $900,000 4,512 $188
3640Mossy Creek $925,000 $925,000 5,186 $178

Discussion

#1 By Marlie at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

Your Real Deal on Southwood Home Sales was a real eye-opener. The Tallahassee Democrat article was wishful thinking and not well-researched.

#2 By Joe Manausa, MBA at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

Hey Marlie, welcome back!

Unfortunately, most newspapers just regurgitate pieces of press releases by the National Association of REALTORS, without studying any of the underlying reports.

Each and every neighborhood has unique markets that must be known in order to achieve the best results in your housing endeavors.

#3 By Chris Keller at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

Lacour Lane is not in SouthWood.

#4 By Joe Manausa, MBA at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

Thanks Chris, it's been fixed.

#5 By Brian Sealey at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

I appreciate your honest approach to real estate. Very accurate facts, keep going!

#6 By Joe Manausa, MBA at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

Thank you Brian. Will do!

#7 By TLH Landlord at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

That's a lot of houses for sale and failing to sale. How many homes are in Southwood overall?

#8 By Karen at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

Thanks for giving us all the facts.

#9 By Joe Manausa, MBA at 7/11/2017 3:45 AM

You are welcome Karen, and thanks for commenting!

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