How To Find The Bottom Of The Real Estate Market

Just a reminder that the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter was mailed to subscribers this morning. If you have not yet subscribed, you can do so in the form on the right (or at the end of this article). It is easy and does not even take a minute to subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter.

One of the interesting real estate graphs that we observe on a daily basis has the one year inventory trends for single family homes, condominiums and townhouses in the Tallahassee real estate market. These trends, or specifically the close monitoring of these trends, should lead us to the discovery of the real estate market bottom just as it occurs.

The Five Phases Of The Real Estate Market Transition

If you want to know the beginning of the next phase of the market turn, just keep an eye on the green line in the graph below. You can visit this graph (updated twice per week) at The Market Bulletin.

The next phase you say....? Absolutely. I believe that the transition from a buyers' market to a sellers' market will follow this pattern:

  1. Inventory changes from growth to reduction.
  2. Home Values Fall At Accelerating Rate
  3. Year over year sales increase.
  4. Inventory levels reach 6 months of supply (balanced market).
  5. Home Values Stop Falling/Start Rising.

I think it is obvious that we are still in the second phase right now, as we see home values continue to drop.

one-year-real-estate-trends-in-tallahassee

It is important to note that the beginning of a new phase does not necessarily mean the termination of the activities in the previous one. For example, we still need to see inventory reduced and we will see home values continue to fall, even after we see year over year sales increases. Most likely, prices will fall right up to the point of market balance.

How To Find The Bottom Of The Real Estate Market

The green line in the graph above measures the number of daily closed home sales in the Tallahassee real estate market, on a 1 year trend. When we see it change direction (start climbing higher), then we will be seeing year-over-year sales increases, or the market turn! This graph can be viewed at any time and is updated twice per week at The Tallahassee Real Estate Web Site.

Daily Sales Rate Down 21%

What the green line is showing now is that the current daily sales rate is down 21% just since December 9th! This is not due to time of year issues as we are measuring 365 days of information at every point on the line. The next major phase of this market turn will occur when we begin seeing year-over-year unit sales increases!

[download id="3" format="1"]

subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter

Subscribe in a reader Subscribe by email

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.

If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can Subscribe by Email.You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
View Joe Manausa's profile on LinkedIn

Please Do Us A Small Favor

We work very hard to produce daily content for our long-time readers and first-time visitors. We provide this information for free, hoping to earn your respect and trust and the right to one-day help you when selling or buying a home. Can we get your help spreading the word about our blog?

If you like the content, would you please like it or share it using the Facebook button at the beginning of the post? This simple action will be greatly appreciated! THANK YOU!

Please Like Us And Share On Facebook - Help us grow our brand!

Also like us on Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/joemanausarealestate/

Joe Wrote The Book On How To Sell A Home Today

Joe Manausa wrote the book on how to sell a home in the digital age, you can find it here“Location, location, location’ is no longer a competitive advantage. Digital marketing and going direct to consumer have made all geographical boundaries obsolete. The Business of Getting Business is a must-read modern-day survival guide for any local business to get to the next decade. Local businesses are on death ground.

They can either take a stand and re-invent themselves by embracing the digital frontier and have a chance to survive the overwhelming odds of digital direct-to-consumer capabilities that have erased all local and national business distinctions, or they can choose business as usual and accept certain death.

The Business of Getting Business is the critical survival guide for those that choose to dig in and fight.”
   – Anthony Noto, CEO, SoFi and former COO, Twitter

Get the book that explains it all, in a manner that is understanding to all, even technology neophytes. It's available on Amazon, a trusted source for consumers.

Real Estate Agent reveals in Tallahassee, Florida

Think all REALTORS are alike?

Read what people are saying about working with Joe Manausa Real Estate! You can see thousands of real customer reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow at this link: CLICK HERE FOR REAL ESTATE AGENT REVIEWS.

Discussion

#1 By Sarah at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

Just wanted to thank you for the great information you provide the public with this blog. It must take a lot to of work, but it's so hard for the average person to piece all of this together.

#2 By Joe Manausa at 7/11/2017 3:44 AM

Thank you Sarah. It is a lot of work, but the research behind it is something I have always done in order to stay abreast of the market. The blog and the newsletter have really helped me as well (to get my thoughts and conclusions together).

Post a Comment

(850) 378-5727