Tallahassee Housing Market Update February 2024

Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or somewhere in between, understanding these trends is key to unlocking the potential of Florida's capital city marketDiving into the Tallahassee housing market reveals a landscape of shifting sands, where the winds of demand, supply, and luxury converge to create a dynamic and evolving real estate environment. From historic lows in distressed listings to a luxury market that's tightened from a sprawling 21 months of supply down to a mere five, the story of Tallahassee's homes is one of resilience, recovery, and remarkable transformation.

Whether you're a first-time buyer, a seasoned investor, or somewhere in between, understanding these trends is key to unlocking the potential of Florida's capital city market. Join us as we explore the intricate dance of numbers and narratives that define Tallahassee's real estate scene, offering insights and opportunities in equal measure.

I've included a list of the homes for sale in Tallahassee; the report follows below.

Homes For Sale In Tallahassee

877 Properties
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Housing Market Activity

This graph plots the monthly supply and sales of homes in Tallahassee and offers a nuanced perspective on market conditions. The green and red lines represent sales and inventory, respectively, while the blue bars indicate the months of supply of homes. The gold line, crucially, plots the relative supply of homes for sale, adjusting for the rate of demand, with the gold field marking the zone of market equilibrium (the market state where neither sellers nor buyers hold an advantage).

Home sales activity in the Tallahassee real estate market

The current positioning of the gold line below the equilibrium zone indicates a strong seller's market, characterized by a lower relative supply of homes compared to demand. This situation typically results in upward pressure on prices and a competitive environment for buyers, who may find themselves in bidding wars or having to make quick decisions. Despite dealing with this for more than four years, we have not built enough homes in Tallahassee to make it much easier for buyers today.

Despite these conditions favoring sellers, there's an observable trend toward reversal, suggesting a gradual shift that could lead to a more balanced market. This shift is significant for both buyers and sellers. Buyers might soon find more options available and less competition, while sellers may need to adjust their expectations as the market cools and becomes more equitable. This evolving dynamic underscores the importance of monitoring market trends closely for those looking to make informed real estate decisions in Tallahassee.

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Luxury Homes Market

The analysis of the luxury home segment in Tallahassee reveals distinct market dynamics when compared to the broader housing market. In this specialized graph, the color coding remains consistent with the previous general market graph: green for sales, red for inventory, blue bars for the months of supply, and the gold line representing the relative supply of homes for sale, adjusted for demand. The gold field highlights market equilibrium, a critical reference point for understanding market conditions.

Luxury home sales activity in the Tallahassee real estate market

A striking feature of the luxury home market is the significant decrease in the relative supply of homes for sale, with the gold line now below five months of supply, a sharp decline from the 21 months of supply observed in 2017. This dramatic reduction signifies a robust shift towards a seller's market within the luxury segment, characterized by a much tighter inventory relative to demand.

This tightening of the luxury market is indicative of increased demand for high-end properties in Tallahassee, driven by factors such as economic growth and historically low mortgage interest rates. For sellers of luxury homes, this trend suggests a favorable market condition, with the potential for quicker sales and possibly higher prices due to the limited inventory. On the other hand, buyers face a more competitive market, with fewer options available and the need for swift decision-making to secure desirable properties.

The marked decrease in the months of supply for luxury homes underscores the importance of timing, market knowledge, and strategic planning for participants in this segment. Whether looking to buy or sell luxury properties in Tallahassee, stakeholders would benefit from a keen understanding of these market dynamics to navigate the current landscape effectively.

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For Sale - But Not Available!

This graph showcases the current inventory status of homes for sale in Tallahassee and offers a clear view of market dynamics, with homes under contract plotted in blue and those listed but not under contract in red. The green line represents the percentage of homes under contract, while the dashed-green line indicates the annual trend for this metric. 

Home listing status in the Tallahassee real estate market

In a balanced market, 17% to 30% of listings are typically under contract. However, Tallahassee's market has been exceptionally tight on inventory, with over 50% of listings under contract for more than three years and peaks where over 70% of listings were under contract, highlighting a challenging environment for buyers due to the scarcity of available homes.

Imagine looking to buy a home in Tallahassee only to discover that of the 20 listings in your price range, only six are really available! Tallahassee buyers have been struggling with this for years.

Currently, the percentage of homes under contract stands at 45%, the lowest since 2019, suggesting a slight easing of the market. This shift could indicate a more favorable environment for buyers, as a higher proportion of the inventory remains available for viewing and purchase. If this trend strengthens, sellers might need to adjust expectations and strategies in a market that is becoming slightly less competitive (for buyers) than in previous years.

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Are We About Back To Normal?

Years ago, somebody asked me what percentage of listings sell each month. You could say he was looking to ascertain the "normal" percentage of home listings that go under contract monthly. To answer his question, I created the "Normal" graph below, something I've updated with more than 15 years of Tallahassee housing data.

Home contract status in the Tallahassee real estate market

Understanding the dynamics of the Tallahassee housing market requires a deep dive into historical data and trends. One particularly insightful analysis comes from a graph that plots over 15 years of housing data, focusing on the number of homes that went under contract each month (plotted in blue) against the percentage of the inventory sold (plotted in red). This graph introduces a concept of "normalcy" in the market through a red banner, which delineates the expected range of inventory turnover in a balanced market environment.

In a typical year, the market would exhibit a balanced distribution: three months would fall below this "normal" range, indicating slower sales activity; three months would surpass it, showing heightened activity; and six months would align within the range, suggesting a stable market. However, the data reveals that since before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Tallahassee market has consistently seen months in or above this normal range. This pattern indicates a prolonged period of strong seller's market conditions, where a higher percentage of listings are selling each month than would be expected in a balanced market. Such conditions typically result from high demand coupled with a limited inventory, leading to competitive market dynamics that favor sellers.

Interestingly, the trend is showing signs of a downward shift, suggesting that the market may be moving towards a more balanced state. If this trend continues, it could mean that by the end of 2024, the market might return to normal percentages of inventory sold. This potential shift towards normalization is significant for several reasons. For buyers, it could herald a market with more options and less competition, making it easier to purchase homes without the frenetic pace and pressure seen in recent years. On the other hand, sellers might need to recalibrate their expectations and strategies if the market cools and becomes more balanced.

This evolving market landscape in Tallahassee offers a unique opportunity for stakeholders to adjust their approaches, whether they are looking to buy, sell, or invest. The anticipation of a return to a more balanced market underscores the importance of staying informed and agile, ready to adapt to the changing dynamics of the local real estate scene.

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Very Few Foreclosures And Short Sales

This graph provides a compelling narrative about the evolving dynamics of the Tallahassee housing market over the past 14 years. It shows arms-length listings in green and distressed listings in red, and the navy blue line records the percentage of homes sold in distressed situations, providing invaluable insights into market health and trends.

Distressed property activity in the Tallahassee real estate market

The current distressed listing rate of 7% hovers just above an all-time low, suggesting a market that has completely recovered from past turmoil, such as the financial crisis of 2008 and subsequent years of economic instability. However, this figure comes with a crucial caveat: the overall number of active listings is at a historic low. This scarcity of inventory inherently skews the percentage of distressed sales higher, as there are fewer transactions overall.

Understanding the significance of these findings requires a nuanced interpretation. If the inventory levels were closer to historic norms, the actual percentage of distressed properties on the market would likely be at an unprecedented low, indicating robust health and stability in the Tallahassee real estate market. This scenario suggests a strong seller's market, where fewer homeowners are forced into distress sales, reflecting an economy where more people are able to meet their mortgage obligations due to better employment rates, rising incomes, or other favorable economic conditions (like low mortgage interest rates).

This analysis not only highlights the current state of the market but also underscores the importance of considering inventory levels when evaluating the percentage of distressed listings. For potential buyers, investors, and policymakers, understanding these dynamics is crucial for making informed decisions. When contextualized with the overall low inventory, the low percentage of distressed listings points to a market where home sellers control nearly every price point and location.

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Before you decide upon a specific mortgage amortization on a home loan, take a look at this quick case study that compares a 15-year loan with a 30-year loan and a 40-year amortized loan.
What are closing costs when buying a home?
If you are planning to buy a home now, or in the next few months, there are some fees and expenses you’ll need to pay in addition to your down payment that you should know about. Other than your down payment, all money you spend when you buy a home are called “closing costs,” and you should know about them ahead of time. Even experienced buyers can be surprised at all the costs that are associated with buying a home today. This short video will cover what you need to know so that you can (one, be prepared,
How Much Should You Put Down On A House?
Need some downpayment advice? Want to know what to put down on a house? There are issues you might not have considered when determining a home down payment, but my home buying tips include a side-by-side comparison of some options that will help you make the best decision.
Don't Buy A Home Without Seeing This First!
If you plan to buy a home now or in the next few months, let me tell you about a critical document that you absolutely must get from the seller before you start spending any money on inspections or repairs. The document that I’m addressing is the SELLERS PROPERTY DISCLOSURE, and you should not just HOPE that the seller will include it in the marketing documents. Instead, demand to see this document with a current signature and date from the seller on the day the contract is executed. As you will discover in
10 Mistakes Homebuyers Make In The Home Mortgage Process
10 Mistakes Homebuyers Make In The Home Mortgage Process | Home Buyer Tips - If you are getting ready to buy a home and you are financing your purchase, I am going to cover a list of ten things you are going to want to avoid until after you have closed on your home. The home mortgage process is very structured, loaded with rules and guidelines that you must follow in order to be approved. Remember, a bank is going to lend you hundreds of thousands of dollars, so it's not too shocking that they want you to f
Need To Move? Buying vs. Renting Today
Wondering whether to buy a house or rent a house in 2022? I have created a simple real estate case study to help you make your next move confidently
Is Home Ownership A Hedge Against Inflation?
Could homeownership today still be a smart hedge against inflation? This is a study of real estate during inflation.
How To Buy Your First Home - Step By Step
How To Buy Your First Home - Step By Step - The home buying process from start to finish. Walkthrough the entire homebuying process, great for first time homebuyers and anyone buying a home this year. This is Home Buying 101.
How HGTV Is Like Meth For Homebuyers
This is what I have observed regarding the HGTV impact on buying a home and selling a home.
6 Real Estate Investing Lessons from the 2008 Housing Bubble
Join us as we embark on a journey through the wreckage, unearthing wisdom that could safeguard your investments and set you up for unprecedented success.
How Often Do Home Prices Fall?
Are home prices falling? Will house prices fall soon? Home prices are soaring, buyers are having to pay above most sellers' asking prices, and the housing market feels just like a feeding frenzy during Shark Week on the Discovery Channel.
New Home Construction: Buy Now or Wait for Prices To Drop?
Is now the best time to buy a newly built home? Or should you wait for prices to drop? Today's report on timing the new construction market has the answers you seek!
How To Use Price Per Square Foot When Valuing A Home
Price per square foot is a measurement of a home's value, but the price per square foot alone is not an effective way to determine the price a home will sell in today's housing market.
8 Tips For Buying An Affordable Florida Vacation Home
It's possible to find an affordable Florida vacation home, but you have to be prepared. Follow these 8 smart tips so that you can own your piece of Florida paradise without breaking the bank.
How To Avoid Common Legal Issues When Buying Or Selling A Home
This video examines the most common real estate law problems and provides guidance on avoiding legal issues when buying or selling a home.
What To Offer On A Home In A Sellers Market
We are experiencing the strongest seller's market on record, so you have to be prepared to make the right kind of offer if you want to buy a home today. And it's not all just about how much to offer, there is so much involved when making the "RIGHT" offer in a seller's market. I have shared my experience of selling thousands of homes in a seller's market, both with working for buyers and with working for sellers. I have shared 3 important home buying tips to enlighten you on what matters most to sellers so
Why It's Alway About Supply And Demand In Real Estate
It's all about supply and demand. The real estate supply and demand dynamic tells us everything we need to know to forecast home sales in any given area.
Top 10 Tallahassee Neighborhoods
If you want to know where homebuyers chose to live in 2021, then this video was produced specifically for you. Follow along as I share the top-ten selling communities in Tallahassee in 2021, with insight on what it costs to live in each neighborhood as well as the number of homes that sold.
Why Fixer Uppers Are the New Gold | Home Renovation Guide
This video explains why fixer uppers are the new gold. If you need a home renovation guide full of great home renovation tips, this is where to start your home renovation journey.
10 Home Inspection Issues And Tips
Moving from one home to another has enough stress and chaos built into the entire affair, and the home inspection is often the biggest stressor. Here's how to avoid home inspection stress!
Real Estate Negotiation Strategies For Each Market Condition
If you mishandle the negotiation on a home, several things will possibly happen, and all of them are bad. First and foremost, you’ll leave money on the table through either the sales price or the terms that are negotiated. Today, buyers are losing out on homes they want to buy and it’s often due to poor positioning in the negotiation. And while we are in the midst of a historic sellers’ market, I’m seeing sellers leave money on the table even when they have multiple offers! #realestatenegotiation #homenegot
Four Smart Ways To Use A Real Estate Contract Assignment
Contract assignability allows buyers to give or sell their rights to another buyer, and that creates opportunity. Tune in to discover four reasons to assign a real estate contract (including contract assignment profits)
What Does A Transaction Coordinator Do?
When you are selling a home or buying a home, a critical member of your support team is your transaction coordinator. Here's what to expect!
Real Estate Appraisal Versus Fair Market Value Of A Home?
What is the difference between a real estate appraisal and the fair market value of a home? If there is one practice that confounds both home buyers and home sellers alike it's the fact that the majority of real estate transactions close at the mercy of an appraisal conducted for a purpose that most consumers do not consider. Understanding these differences will save you money when it comes to buying or selling a home, and it will help you appreciate the need and value of a real estate appraisal. But here’s
What Is A Real Estate Hot Sheet?
What Is A Real Estate Hotsheet? - When agents are new to the real estate industry, they are trained to monitor the " MLS Hot Sheet" every morning in order to stay informed of the inventory changes. So what is a real estate hot sheet, and can non-Realtors get access to it? ?? Link to the current real estate Hot Sheet: https://www.TallahasseeHotSheet.com Up until now, the hot sheet was proprietary information only available to paid members of the MLS. But recognizing that inventory is so low in the Tallahass
Who is responsible for determining the value of the home you want to buy?
If you are planning on buying a home now, or within the next three to six months, you are going to have all sorts of questions pop up for which you’ll want answers. Among the most important of these will have to do with figuring out what a home is worth. As a matter of fact, I was recently asked this question “Who is primarily responsible for determining the market value of the home you want to buy?” Questions about valuation are very common from buyers of all experience levels because nobody wants to overp
What Is The Definition Of Distressed Property?
What Is The Definition Of Distressed Property? I received this question from "Rich" who asked: Joe, what is your definition of a "Distressed Property" - foreclosure, disrepair, time on market, location? That's a great question because we have a ton of people who have registered to receive our regularly updated list of distressed properties for sale in Tallahassee, so I know the topic is very popular today. In fact, it’s not uncommon for people just entering the market to buy a home to be focused on distress
Why Use A Buyer's Agent For New Construction?
Why Use A Buyer's Agent For New Construction? - I was recently asked about the benefits of having a buyers agent for new construction. Specifically, she asked why she should use a buyer's agent for new construction? My short answer is that you should always hire a well-trained advocate to help you buy any real estate, including new construction homes. This video though will specifically address several benefits of having your own advocate when purchasing a brand new home, whether it has already been built
What Is A Seller's Market In Real Estate?
You might have heard that we have a huge seller’s market right now in real estate. Do you know what that means? This real estate frequently asked question comes up from time to time when somebody is buying a home or selling a home. They want to know if its a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. Is now a good time to buy a home in the Tallahassee real estate market? I have prepared this short video to demonstrate the conditions that make this a seller’s market, and then we’ll show you the numbers and how we
What Is A Swimming Pool Worth?
What Is A Swimming Pool Worth? Recently, a customer buying a home asked me a simple question. She inquired “how much does a pool add to the value of a home?” Pretty simple question, right? Well, by the end of this short video, you’ll know the not-so-simple answer (and why this is so important).
How Many Times Will A Home Seller Counter Offer?
This real estate frequently asked question is from a recent home buyer. If you are about to buy a home in Tallahassee Florida or beyond and you’re trying to better understand how the real estate negotiation process will work, then understanding how to better control the negotiation is going to keep some of your hard-earned money in your pocket!
What You Should Know About School Zones When Buying A Home
What You Should Know About School Zones When Buying A Home - Buyers always ask about school zones, even when they do not have school-aged children. They understand that homes in the highest-rated school zones often fetch the most money, so they believe they are putting themselves in the best position for a future sale by purchasing a home in an acceptable school zone today. Unfortunately, this logic is flawed. If you are buying a home with no need for a school yet plan on including your opinion of the publi
Real Estate Is Local - What This Means!
If you plan on buying a home, or selling a home, you’ll want to understand the local nature of real estate and use it to your advantage.
Do's And Don'ts During The Home Loan Process
During the home loan process, you'll want to avoid negatively impacting your loan pre-approval in any way

Local Tallahassee Housing Expert

As we've navigated through the intricate details of Tallahassee's housing market, from the overarching trends to the nuanced shifts within the luxury segment, it's clear that this market is both vibrant and complex. The journey from a period of high-distressed listings to a robust seller's market underscores a rapidly evolving landscape. For those poised on the brink of decision-making, whether contemplating entering the market for the first time, considering an investment in luxury properties, or thinking about selling, the time to act is now.

The current trends signal a unique window of opportunity. Buyers have a chance to secure homes in a market that's gradually becoming more balanced, while sellers can capitalize on favorable conditions, even in the luxury segment where demand remains strong. The key to navigating this market successfully lies in informed decision-making backed by the latest data and trends.

Don't let the complexities of the market deter you. Whether you're drawn to the allure of luxury homes or looking to find your footing in the broader Tallahassee real estate market, the moment to make your move is here. Let our team of experienced agents guide you through the nuances of the market, ensuring that you make decisions that align with your goals and aspirations. In the dynamic landscape of Tallahassee's real estate, armed with the right information and expert advice, you can turn your real estate dreams into reality.

There are a lot of people who endorse Joe for the job of selling your home, including Preston Scott (host of Tallahassee's top daily "Audio Magazine," as well as the thousands of happy customers Joe has helped in the past. Listen why!

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