Looking For Signs Of A Housing Market Collapse?

In my pursuit to find evidence of an impending housing bubble, I continue instead to find evidence of the opposite.The real estate doomsayers are getting louder in their calls for the collapse of the housing market, so I continue my quest to find supporting (or opposing) evidence in order to guide our customers.

During the buildup of the housing bubble in 2006, we saw the inventory of homes for sale continue to swell, even as new contracts on homes declined. For this reason, I keep a very close eye on the supply of homes for sale. In my pursuit to find evidence of an impending housing bubble, I continue instead to find evidence of the opposite.

Today, we'll look at this new trend and speculate on its impact on home prices. First, take a quick peek at the supply of homes for sale in Tallahassee. You will notice that as prices drop below the top 5% of the market, the percentage of homes under contract with buyers rises to levels we do not normally see in October.

Tallahassee Homes For Sale

935 Properties
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Housing Market Collapse?

The Entire Housing Market

Chris Farley - Van down by the riverWhen we look at the overall housing market, we need to consider the options consumers face. They can buy or they can rent. They can live in a single-family home, a multi-family home, a mobile home, a dorm, an extended-stay hotel or hospital, student dorms, military barracks (or even in a van down by the river).

All of these property types must be considered when evaluating the overall health of the housing market because strength in one could very well cause weakness in another. For example, if a significant percentage of single-family home investors decided to sell their homes, it would add homes to the "for sale" market while removing homes from the "for rent market." In the short term, we might see home price growth slow down while seeing rents rise.

So it is important to study each segment of the housing market, looking for supporting or opposing trends that can provide insight into future market movements.

Recent Housing Market Reports

Real Estate Supply Update
Today, you really have to track the real estate supply and demand for homes so that you know just how aggressive and flexible you will need to be when it comes time to find a home to buy.
How Soaring Home Prices Are Impacting The Housing Market
Report includes three graphs that show just how far home prices have risen as we move towards conditions where home affordability might become the greatest challenge the housing market has EVER embraced.
Available Housing Inventory Is Rising
Two important market statistics about the available housing inventory that all Realtors, buyers, and sellers should know if they want to be in a position to properly negotiate a transaction to its best outcome.
Foreclosure Wave? The End Of The Mortgage Moratorium And Forbearance
Many claim a foreclosure tsunami will be the cause of a new housing bubble, yet I believe they are a little short-sighted and I have some evidence that shows this is just not going to happen.
Signs Of A Housing Market Collapse?
When we study the US median market rent, we see signs that paint a clear picture of the future of home prices and home values.
New Versus Existing Home Values Creates Bubble?
New Versus Existing Home Values | Is A New Housing Bubble Forming? Have you noticed the difference between new versus existing home values and wondered is a new housing bubble forming?
Pending Home Sales Report October 2021
Pending Home Sales Report provides an early insight into housing market activity, as we look to present conditions with contracts as opposed to waiting for home sales to close.
Homeownership Rate Crash #shorts
60 Second Video: Homeownership is going to decline over the next 30 years, as home affordability hits the worst levels seen since the end of World War II. This is a generational shift in the housing market
Housing Shortage Confirmed: Median Market Rent Explosion
The lack of home builder production has home prices and home values soaring, now look at what's happening to rents too!
Multi-Family Properties - Are They Appreciating Fast Too?
In this video, I discuss the status and market projection of the multi-family homes market. The data I will provide show how multi-family properties compare to single-family homes, market behavior, and how much both have appreciated over the past ten years, comparatively.
How Low Will They GO?
Mortgage interest rates are probably the lowest you will ever see in your lifetime, keeping the demand for Real Estate extremely high!
US Homeownership Rate Crash
Homeownership has been high since World War II, but there is a generational shift in the US housing market that is occurring with two key trends that will soon destroy home affordability and then homeownership in the US.
How Often Do Home Prices Fall?
Are home prices falling? Will house prices fall soon? Home prices are soaring, buyers are having to pay above most sellers' asking prices, and the housing market feels just like a feeding frenzy during Shark Week on the Discovery Channel.
Housing Report September 2021
This home sales report examines current housing market conditions, mortgage interest rates, and home sales trends in 2021 when compared to previous years.
Real Estate Supply And Demand
This housing market report dissects the supply side of the Tallahassee real estate market, examining what’s coming in, what's under contract, and what present levels mean for home values and buying a home today.
Home Affordability Forecast
Real estate prices are moving higher (faster). This is a real estate forecast you need to see. Many have been misinformed about home prices and the housing market and must watch and internalize the message from this video.
Median Home Value Soars In August
This video examines the median home price and median home value, and compares the current real estate appreciation rate with past years' rates in order to provide a future forecast
Luxury Home Sales July 2021
Tallahassee Luxury homes are selling better than ever through mid-July in 2021. This video luxury home sales report shows the highest rate of home sales ever at the very top of the market. Many wonder whether or not it will continue.
Tallahassee Builders Association Real Estate Outlook
The Tallahassee Builders Association meeting where Joe Manausa gives an update on the real estate outlook in Tallahassee. Includes housing market forecast, housing market activity, new construction analysis, and reveals how Tallahassee compares with the overall US housing market.
Central North Florida Home Sales Report
Average home prices, average home values, and average home sizes in each of the 8 counties of Central North Florida
New Construction Forecast | How New Construction Is Evolving
The evidence that points to a very clear picture of where the real estate market is heading and what is going to happen to the new home construction market specifically.
What Do Low Mortgage Interest Rates Really Mean?
Every article or video about mortgage interest rates conveys that rates are low, but do you really know what it means?
Housing Market 2021 And Beyond Boom Or Bust?
Housing Market 2021 And Beyond Boom Or Bust? What's going on with US Home Sales in 2021? Are we getting ready to relive the 2005 market? Or perhaps the 2006 market as it all came tumbling down? This comprehensive report with graphs and third-party data gives you the answers you need to know! #housingmarket2021 #realestatemarket2021
Home Affordability Forecast and Housing Report 2021 Q1
A look at how home affordability is likely to change over the next twenty years. I produced the forecast by using data from the past and applying it forward, including inflation, home prices, home values, and mortgage interest rates. If you have a stake in the housing market, you don't want to miss this forecast
Are Home Sales Sustainable At Today's Pace?
The housing market is hot, but is it too hot? Can we keep selling homes at the rates we're seeing today, or is this a case of what goes up, must come down? The answer to are home sale sustainable can be found with a study of historic home sales rates and population growth trends, allowing us to forecast future home sales.
Here's Where Home Affordability Is Heading
There is a generational shift occurring in the housing market that I reveal in this video. I’m talking about how buying a home over the next twenty years will be unlike what previous generations saw since the early 1980s.
Real Estate Supply And Demand Update March 2021
Real Estate Supply And Demand Update March 2021: Prudent homeowners and prospective buyers are wise to study the supply and demand for homes in the market in which they live. Today's report on the supply and demand for homes in Tallahassee parallels what other markets are reporting. The consistent message for more than two years is that we need more homes! Today’s report focuses on the supply-side of the housing market, looking at what’s coming in and what present levels mean for home values and buyer oppor
Real Estate Market Forecast 2021
Real Estate Market Forecast 2021 - Are you curious about what will happen in the 2021 housing market? There are so many videos making a housing market forecast, many which use shocking headlines about the coming real estate market crash that I felt it would be good to produce a fact-based housing market forecast. I summarize how the market performed last year, look at current supply and demand ratios, assess the major variables impacting the market, and then conclude with a reasonable expectation from that
How Low Mortgage Interest Rates Are Shaping The Real Estate Market
Historic low mortgage interest rates are redefining the housing market and we will see the impact of today's mortgages last long into the future.
The Truth About The Housing Bubble Of 2021
Will there be a housing bubble in 2021? - If you look at the most active real estate videos on YouTube, you'll find that the forecast for the next real estate bubble is very popular. Is there a housing crisis and will there be a housing crash in 2021? Or is it just sensationalism that drives people to watch these so-called reports? This video exposes real evidence and I will give you data that tells you everything you need to know about a housing bubble in 2021.
Real Estate Crash In 2021?
Are you worried about a real estate crash in 2021? For this to happen, we’ll first start to see a rise in the supply of homes for sale, so today’s housing market 2020 report is focused on the supply side of housing market conditions. In normal years, October is about the slowest month for new contracts being written and new listings entering the market. But this is 2020. This is not normal. You should know that I do provide a fair warning, for all home sellers, near the end of this video.

Rents Are Soaring Too

I have been saying that we need more homes for the past five years. The US population has increased by more than 30 million people since the housing bubble burst, yet the pace of new home production has dropped dramatically.

The lack of new home production has created scarcity in the "for sale" market, and I wondered if it was having a similar impact on the "for rent" market. The graph below plots the median market rent in the US since 2014.

Graph of median market rent October 2021

The graph above was created from a dataset produced by Zillow, created to share rental rates from most of the larger US metropolitan areas. Zillow estimates the median by cutting a slice out of the middle of the rental market (by choosing listed rents that fall into the 40th to 60th percentile range for all homes and apartments). The blue field plots the median monthly rental rate, while the red line reports the year-over-year change of this rental rate.

Does this look familiar to you? It sure does to me!

Apparently, it’s not just home prices and values that are skyrocketing, so too are rental rates. August rental rates were nearly 13% higher than were rental rates in August of last year, and that is awfully close to the runaway rate of appreciation that we’re seeing with existing home sales. This only reinforces my concerns about home affordability and a decline in the homeownership rate.

Future Housing Market Reports

I'm exploring new data sources and hope to produce an examination of rents, prices, and median incomes. When adjusted for inflation, I believe it will give us a clear view of home affordability and where the market will be heading when the Fed gets aggressive on interest rates and we see these (wonderful) historically low mortgage interest rates fade away.

If you have any thoughts or questions on how we can better explore local and US housing market conditions, just drop a comment below and I'll consider it for future posts.

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