Looking For Signs Of A Housing Market Collapse?

In my pursuit to find evidence of an impending housing bubble, I continue instead to find evidence of the opposite.The real estate doomsayers are getting louder in their calls for the collapse of the housing market, so I continue my quest to find supporting (or opposing) evidence in order to guide our customers.

During the buildup of the housing bubble in 2006, we saw the inventory of homes for sale continue to swell, even as new contracts on homes declined. For this reason, I keep a very close eye on the supply of homes for sale. In my pursuit to find evidence of an impending housing bubble, I continue instead to find evidence of the opposite.

Today, we'll look at this new trend and speculate on its impact on home prices. First, take a quick peek at the supply of homes for sale in Tallahassee. You will notice that as prices drop below the top 5% of the market, the percentage of homes under contract with buyers rises to levels we do not normally see in October.

Tallahassee Homes For Sale

902 Properties
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Housing Market Collapse?

The Entire Housing Market

Chris Farley - Van down by the riverWhen we look at the overall housing market, we need to consider the options consumers face. They can buy or they can rent. They can live in a single-family home, a multi-family home, a mobile home, a dorm, an extended-stay hotel or hospital, student dorms, military barracks (or even in a van down by the river).

All of these property types must be considered when evaluating the overall health of the housing market because strength in one could very well cause weakness in another. For example, if a significant percentage of single-family home investors decided to sell their homes, it would add homes to the "for sale" market while removing homes from the "for rent market." In the short term, we might see home price growth slow down while seeing rents rise.

So it is important to study each segment of the housing market, looking for supporting or opposing trends that can provide insight into future market movements.

Recent Housing Market Reports

Tallahassee Real Estate Report March 2022
The pace of this video moves fast, and I cover more than ten key real estate trends, so you might want to go back to any graph that you want to spend more time on.
Building Permits Reveal Major Housing Crisis
How do we know there is a major housing crisis brewing? Look no further than building permits! This video examines building permits in detail, as the issue of home affordability is going to become one of the most prominent topics for many years in the national media.
Top 10 Tallahassee Neighborhoods
If you want to know where homebuyers chose to live in 2021, then this video was produced specifically for you. Follow along as I share the top-ten selling communities in Tallahassee in 2021, with insight on what it costs to live in each neighborhood as well as the number of homes that sold.
Median Home Price Continues Higher - Home Affordability Declines
If you want to understand how prices and values are moving in the housing market, it starts in the middle. Why the middle? Find out in this video!
US Housing Market Forecast 2022
Complete housing market forecast for 2022 including data on Population, Mortgage Interest Rates, Jobs (The Economy), New Home Construction, Foreclosures & Forbearances, Supply & Demand, Home Prices, and Rental Rates.
Home Ownership Is Radically Different For Millennials
This is a simple millennial housing case study that will clearly show that the millennials will face a housing market like no other generation going back to post-World War II.
Are We Overbuilding Again?
I've been asked recently for my opinion on the number of homes being built in the US. Specifically, people are wondering if the ghost of 2006 has come back to bring more homes to the market than what can be consumed?
Luxury Homes Report January 2022
Luxury home sales are being propped up by low mortgage rates, so keep an eye on luxury home sales and you will get a fair warning for the slowdown in the rest of the housing market.
Real Estate Supply Update January 2022
Have you seen what’s happened to the supply of homes for sale? It’s disturbing! In this video, I’m going to show you a thorough analysis of the supply-side of the housing market, and then reveal the primary reason that all US markets are running out of homes.
Zillow Housing Market Report March 2022
This Zillow real estate report on the US housing market is primarily supported by data supplied by Zillow, and it provides enough information for us to draw a logical forecast of what to expect in the months and years to come.
Why It's Alway About Supply And Demand In Real Estate
It's all about supply and demand. The real estate supply and demand dynamic tells us everything we need to know to forecast home sales in any given area.
Proof Of Runaway Appreciation In Real Estate?
Over the years, we've come to expect "normal" real estate appreciation to be just over 3%, but homes are appreciating much faster than a normal rate. Home values are moving higher fast enough to cause alarm bells to ring, and today's report will show you exactly how the housing market has performed.
4 Important US Housing Market Trends Impacting 2022
Here’s the thing about forecasts, they require a working knowledge of what consumers face when selling and buying homes. It's these pressure points that I'll share with you as I prepare my forecast for 2022.
Interesting Employment Dynamic Impacts Home Sales
Home sales in the United States are vibrant, and we can look to the economy as a big reason homes are selling. I have found a pocket of data on the Federal Reserve Economic Data website that explains the vitality of the US housing market.
How Soaring Home Prices Are Impacting The Housing Market
Report includes three graphs that show just how far home prices have risen as we move towards conditions where home affordability might become the greatest challenge the housing market has EVER embraced.
Foreclosure Wave? The End Of The Mortgage Moratorium And Forbearance
Many claim a foreclosure tsunami will be the cause of a new housing bubble, yet I believe they are a little short-sighted and I have some evidence that shows this is just not going to happen.
Signs Of A Housing Market Collapse?
When we study the US median market rent, we see signs that paint a clear picture of the future of home prices and home values.
New Versus Existing Home Values Creates Bubble?
New Versus Existing Home Values | Is A New Housing Bubble Forming? Have you noticed the difference between new versus existing home values and wondered is a new housing bubble forming?
Homeownership Rate Crash #shorts
60 Second Video: Homeownership is going to decline over the next 30 years, as home affordability hits the worst levels seen since the end of World War II. This is a generational shift in the housing market
Housing Shortage Confirmed: Median Market Rent Explosion
The lack of home builder production has home prices and home values soaring, now look at what's happening to rents too!
Multi-Family Properties - Are They Appreciating Fast Too?
In this video, I discuss the status and market projection of the multi-family homes market. The data I will provide show how multi-family properties compare to single-family homes, market behavior, and how much both have appreciated over the past ten years, comparatively.
How Low Will They GO?
Mortgage interest rates are probably the lowest you will ever see in your lifetime, keeping the demand for Real Estate extremely high!
US Homeownership Rate Crash
Homeownership has been high since World War II, but there is a generational shift in the US housing market that is occurring with two key trends that will soon destroy home affordability and then homeownership in the US.
How Often Do Home Prices Fall?
Are home prices falling? Will house prices fall soon? Home prices are soaring, buyers are having to pay above most sellers' asking prices, and the housing market feels just like a feeding frenzy during Shark Week on the Discovery Channel.
Home Affordability Forecast
Real estate prices are moving higher (faster). This is a real estate forecast you need to see. Many have been misinformed about home prices and the housing market and must watch and internalize the message from this video.
Tallahassee Builders Association Real Estate Outlook
The Tallahassee Builders Association meeting where Joe Manausa gives an update on the real estate outlook in Tallahassee. Includes housing market forecast, housing market activity, new construction analysis, and reveals how Tallahassee compares with the overall US housing market.
Central North Florida Home Sales Report
Average home prices, average home values, and average home sizes in each of the 8 counties of Central North Florida
What Do Low Mortgage Interest Rates Really Mean?
Every article or video about mortgage interest rates conveys that rates are low, but do you really know what it means?
Home Affordability Forecast and Housing Report 2021 Q1
A look at how home affordability is likely to change over the next twenty years. I produced the forecast by using data from the past and applying it forward, including inflation, home prices, home values, and mortgage interest rates. If you have a stake in the housing market, you don't want to miss this forecast
Are Home Sales Sustainable At Today's Pace?
The housing market is hot, but is it too hot? Can we keep selling homes at the rates we're seeing today, or is this a case of what goes up, must come down? The answer to are home sale sustainable can be found with a study of historic home sales rates and population growth trends, allowing us to forecast future home sales.
Here's Where Home Affordability Is Heading
There is a generational shift occurring in the housing market that I reveal in this video. I’m talking about how buying a home over the next twenty years will be unlike what previous generations saw since the early 1980s.
How Low Mortgage Interest Rates Are Shaping The Real Estate Market
Historic low mortgage interest rates are redefining the housing market and we will see the impact of today's mortgages last long into the future.
The Truth About The Housing Bubble Of 2021
Will there be a housing bubble in 2021? - If you look at the most active real estate videos on YouTube, you'll find that the forecast for the next real estate bubble is very popular. Is there a housing crisis and will there be a housing crash in 2021? Or is it just sensationalism that drives people to watch these so-called reports? This video exposes real evidence and I will give you data that tells you everything you need to know about a housing bubble in 2021.

Rents Are Soaring Too

I have been saying that we need more homes for the past five years. The US population has increased by more than 30 million people since the housing bubble burst, yet the pace of new home production has dropped dramatically.

The lack of new home production has created scarcity in the "for sale" market, and I wondered if it was having a similar impact on the "for rent" market. The graph below plots the median market rent in the US since 2014.

Graph of median market rent October 2021

The graph above was created from a dataset produced by Zillow, created to share rental rates from most of the larger US metropolitan areas. Zillow estimates the median by cutting a slice out of the middle of the rental market (by choosing listed rents that fall into the 40th to 60th percentile range for all homes and apartments). The blue field plots the median monthly rental rate, while the red line reports the year-over-year change of this rental rate.

Does this look familiar to you? It sure does to me!

Apparently, it’s not just home prices and values that are skyrocketing, so too are rental rates. August rental rates were nearly 13% higher than were rental rates in August of last year, and that is awfully close to the runaway rate of appreciation that we’re seeing with existing home sales. This only reinforces my concerns about home affordability and a decline in the homeownership rate.

Future Housing Market Reports

I'm exploring new data sources and hope to produce an examination of rents, prices, and median incomes. When adjusted for inflation, I believe it will give us a clear view of home affordability and where the market will be heading when the Fed gets aggressive on interest rates and we see these (wonderful) historically low mortgage interest rates fade away.

If you have any thoughts or questions on how we can better explore local and US housing market conditions, just drop a comment below and I'll consider it for future posts.

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