Do You Remember The Shadow Inventory? Well, It's Gone!
If you are a long-time reader of the Tallahassee real estate blog, then you might remember all the articles that we wrote about the shadow inventory of homes for sale. As a reminder, those were all the homes that had been on the market but failed to sell and had not yet be relisted.
We wrote about those homes because there was a glut of homes for sale on the market, yet we knew that were even more homes waiting to come back to the market.
Well, those days are over, the shadow inventory has been exhausted, and we have the opposite problem of too few homes available. Take a look at some choice listings available today, and then see our evidence that the shadow inventory is gone.
Homes For Sale In Tallahassee
New Listings In Tallahassee
Each month we do a deep-dive in the listings data to see what has changed in the market. There is a lot of cleaning we must do to convert MLS marketing data into actionable information, but the work is necessary to see what really is occurring.
We examine all listings to see if they are fresh (haven't been listed for sale recently) or stale (meaning they recently failed to sell and have come back to the market listed by a new brokerage).
Fresh Listings In Tallahassee
The following real estate graph measures all fresh new listings entering the market since 2013.
The two things that catch my eye from this graph are that 1, the current trend has dropped significantly has it back at the same level as two years ago. Much of the decline has to do with April numbers being so low this year.
If builders were to "overbuild," we would see a spike or significant growth here. Unfortunately, we don't see any sign of builders ramping up production.
Our next graph provides evidence of the depleted shadow inventory of homes.
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Shadow Inventory Measured Through Stale Listing Numbers
The next real estate graph measures all stale new listings reentering the market since 2013.
The graph above shows that the one-year average of new stale listings has reached an all-time low in the graph. There will always be a flow of failed sellers returning to the market, but the levels were so high from 2008 through 2015 that we knew that others had given up.
Currently, anybody who wants to sell a home in Tallahassee that is worth less than $500K will enjoy a seller's market. Stale listings are declining because far fewer sellers are failing to sell. In fact, we advise anybody contemplating a sale to watch our video and to evaluate our omnichannel marketing plan.
The way a home is sold in the digital era is different than how it was done in the past. Sellers who understand what to do will net MORE MONEY from the sale of their home, so take the time to prepare!
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