Pending Home Sales Continue The Climb February 21, 2010
Observing pending home sales is the most obvious way to predict future home sales. This list of homes that are under contract and waiting for closing can be tracked on a daily basis in the Tallahassee MLS, and thus are an easy and quick litmus test for the direction of the housing market.
The real estate graph below shows that pending home sales are climbing up from the bottom found in mid July. It is exciting to see this growth after years of steady declines. It is also important to closely scrutinize the recent (double-plateau) growth trend, as we want to continue to see the rise in this trend.
This graph is the one-year trend of pending home sales, so the changes that we see are not due to any annual seasonality in any way (every point on the graph contains a full 365 days worth of information). By removing seasonality with our trend reports, we can comfortably assume that the changes that we observe are real estate changes in the actual direction of the housing market.
With the tax credit continuing through June and expanded for all home buyers with contracts through April, I suspect that we will see at least a continuation of current pending home sales (and possibly a steady increase like we’ve seen over the past seven months). Our market requires this growth in order to consume the glut of homes on the market in Tallahassee.