Home Sales In The Neighborhoods Of Ox Bottom
If you ever need to pull information from the Leon County Tax Assessors database of home sales for the different Ox Bottom Neighborhoods in Tallahassee, it can get a bit confusing. There are four "Ox Bottom" neighborhoods:
- Ox Bottom
- Ox Bottom Manor
- Ox Bottom Gardens
- Ox Bottom Reserve
So, as I'm doing my quarterly update on Ox Bottom in Tallahassee, I was trying to decide whether or not I should just lump them together or treat them separately. I know the correct thing to do analytically is to separate them as they are different neighborhoods with differing home sites, but being a staff of 1 makes that not feasible due to time constraints.
But I had to satisfy my curiosity regarding valuation and unit sales, so the following graph breaks out the four different Ox Bottom neighborhoods by number of existing home sales and average price per square foot since 1991.
Ox Bottom Home Sales
What we see in this graph above is that most of the sales are from Ox Bottom Manor and therefore if we combine the data, Ox Bottom Manor will dominate the results. There are so few units in Ox Bottom Estates and Ox Bottom Reserve that they most likely have little impact on the global report. So ultimately, most of the home sales in Ox Bottom come from Ox Bottom Manor and Ox Bottom Gardens.
This real estate graph does show that unit sales have fallen very far. Ox Bottom Manor home sales have dropped from an average exceeding 60 units per year to just 6 thus far through May! And counting all of the Ox Bottom Subdivisions, there have been only 7 sales through May, compared with a record of 80 existing home sales back in 1998 (entire year).
With so little data, it is hard to tell if the price increase is real or just a few "rogue" sales. I suspect that home owners are holding on to the prices in Ox Bottom and that is why we see such few sales. The real question will be weather or not they can hold on long enough for the market to come back and protect their values.
The Four Neighborhoods Of Ox Bottom Together
The next real estate graph shows all of the four Ox Bottom neighborhoods together as one entity.
Just as we saw in the previous real estate graph, unit sales have plummeted in the four neighborhoods of Ox Bottom. Sales for 2008 were down over 50% from the previous year, and 2009 looks to be the 7th consecutive year of falling home sales. This is different than much of the rest of the market, which saw increased home sales through 2005 or 2006, and then the reduction of sales.
I'm not sure if this unusual trend trend is due to the age of the subdivision, its price range, or what the cause could be. I would love to see any feedback from residents of Ox Bottom. With the rest of the market down and unit sales so low in Ox Bottom, I would worry about major price drops coming over the next year.
Recent Existing Home Sales In Ox Bottom Manor
| Address | Price | SqFt HC | Sale Date |
| 7207 OX BOW CIR | $775,000 | 3,958 | 5/22/2009 |
| 160 SUGAR PLUM DR | $228,000 | 1,782 | 5/15/2009 |
| 454 SAN MARTIN DR | $400,000 | 2,607 | 5/15/2009 |
| 1809 MORNING STAR LN | $510,000 | 3,634 | 4/30/2009 |
| 6000 BOYNTON HOMESTEAD | $555,000 | 4,237 | 4/28/2009 |
| 6115 OX BOTTOM MANOR DR | $339,000 | 2,768 | 4/27/2009 |
| 6143 BORDERLINE DR | $300,000 | 2,167 | 3/26/2009 |
| 558 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $441,000 | 2,800 | 12/4/2008 |
| 6305 COACH HOUSE CT | $366,000 | 2,487 | 12/1/2008 |
| 206 BAXTER CT | $210,000 | 1,574 | 10/17/2008 |
| 6320 GLASGOW DR | $415,000 | 2,915 | 9/29/2008 |
| 421 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $412,500 | 2,855 | 9/25/2008 |
| 6000 BOYNTON HOMESTEAD | $530,000 | 4,255 | 9/18/2008 |
| 211 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $465,000 | 3,715 | 9/18/2008 |
| 6359 SAN MARTIN CT | $324,000 | 2,238 | 8/21/2008 |
| 6018 QUAIL RIDGE DR | $340,000 | 2,442 | 8/8/2008 |
| 187 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $345,000 | 2,433 | 7/28/2008 |
| 363 MILESTONE DR | $310,000 | 2,361 | 7/28/2008 |
| 200 SUGAR PLUM DR | $275,000 | 2,131 | 7/15/2008 |
| 6421 MALLARD TRACE DR | $387,500 | 2,531 | 6/30/2008 |
| 6012 OX BOTTOM MANOR DR | $400,000 | 2,760 | 6/27/2008 |
| 347 THORNBERG DR | $364,900 | 2,305 | 6/20/2008 |
| 417 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $449,000 | 3,202 | 6/9/2008 |
| 352 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $340,000 | 2,684 | 6/4/2008 |
| 341 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $400,000 | 2,449 | 5/29/2008 |
| 6369 MALLARD TRACE DR | $380,000 | 2,691 | 5/23/2008 |
| 6000 BOYNTON HOMESTEAD | $500,000 | 4,255 | 5/14/2008 |
| 6359 BELGRAND DR | $302,500 | 2,008 | 5/2/2008 |
| 8015 EVENING STAR LN | $437,400 | 3,072 | 4/9/2008 |
| 6330 BELGRAND DR | $490,000 | 2,953 | 3/28/2008 |
| 6309 PICKNEY HILL RD | $407,500 | 2,692 | 2/5/2008 |
| 192 SUGAR PLUM DR | $240,000 | 1,782 | 12/28/2007 |
| 6000 BOYNTON HOMESTEAD | $475,000 | 4,255 | 12/17/2007 |
| 448 TALL STAND CT | $340,000 | 2,294 | 11/30/2007 |
| 7333 OX BOW CIR | $462,500 | 3,035 | 11/14/2007 |
| 130 THISTLEWOOD CT | $365,000 | 2,280 | 11/2/2007 |
| 6351 SINKOLA DR | $310,000 | 1,944 | 10/31/2007 |
| 6232 WHITTONDALE DR | $354,900 | 2,346 | 10/26/2007 |
| 135 THISTLEWOOD CT | $402,000 | 2,483 | 10/25/2007 |
| 401 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $453,000 | 2,803 | 10/15/2007 |
| 6318 COACH HOUSE CT | $390,000 | 2,268 | 10/3/2007 |
| 6362 SAN MARTIN CT | $445,000 | 2,738 | 9/27/2007 |
| 6359 BELGRAND DR | $295,000 | 2,008 | 9/19/2007 |
| 143 COTILLION CIR | $360,000 | 2,213 | 9/14/2007 |
| 182 COTILLION CIR | $295,900 | 2,068 | 9/13/2007 |
| 310 THORNBERG DR | $322,500 | 1,975 | 8/30/2007 |
| 6110 BORDERLINE DR | $320,000 | 2,048 | 8/23/2007 |
| 6359 MALLARD TRACE DR | $447,000 | 3,075 | 8/23/2007 |
| 2255 GOOSEBERRY CT | $447,500 | 2,586 | 8/23/2007 |
| 6345 MALLARD TRACE DR | $385,000 | 2,501 | 8/2/2007 |
| 472 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $385,000 | 2,248 | 7/27/2007 |
| 181 LOVE RIDGE CT | $288,300 | 1,925 | 7/25/2007 |
| 211 HAWKMEADOW DR | $368,000 | 2,326 | 7/13/2007 |
| 6367 SINKOLA DR | $440,000 | 2,250 | 6/27/2007 |
| 5112 WILD ROSE WAY | $412,000 | 2,531 | 6/27/2007 |
| 414 MEADOW RIDGE DR | $450,000 | 2,686 | 6/26/2007 |
| 6018 QUAIL RIDGE DR | $323,900 | 2,442 | 6/16/2007 |
| 6327 COACH HOUSE CT | $420,000 | 2,729 | 6/15/2007 |
| 6323 BELGRAND DR | $390,000 | 2,368 | 6/8/2007 |
| 5133 WILD ROSE WAY | $545,000 | 3,609 | 5/29/2007 |
| 147 SUGAR PLUM DR | $285,000 | 1,816 | 5/16/2007 |
| 6356 SAN MARTIN CT | $392,000 | 2,222 | 5/4/2007 |
| 6154 BORDERLINE DR | $400,000 | 2,782 | 5/2/2007 |
| 6264 WHITTONDALE DR | $345,000 | 2,150 | 5/2/2007 |
| 181 LOVE RIDGE CT | $226,600 | 1,925 | 4/24/2007 |
| 6397 MALLARD TRACE DR | $440,000 | 2,444 | 4/5/2007 |
| 7075 OX BOW ROAD | $625,000 | 3,796 | 4/4/2007 |
| 270 THORNBERG DR | $442,900 | 2,688 | 3/30/2007 |
| 143 THISTLEWOOD CT | $330,000 | 2,074 | 3/27/2007 |
| 5100 WILD ROSE WAY | $360,400 | 2,961 | 3/9/2007 |
| 6292 WHITTONDALE DR | $362,000 | 2,228 | 2/28/2007 |
| 8015 EVENING STAR LN | $210,000 | 3,072 | 1/12/2007 |
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Discussion
Joe... I just wanted you to know how much I look forward to receiving and reading your reports. I am impressed by the analytical skills, and professional interpretation you bring to the collected data. How about a review of residential building lot supplies in the Tallahassee market? As you may know, I have a number of "luxury lots" to sell and MLS shows only a few sales in 2008 of product costing above $150,000 and almost none in 2009. Are lower price lots selling at all? Is there a "tipping point" in lot sale prices?
Thanks and keep up the wonderful work you are doing.
Buddy
Is my understanding correct that you anticipate a large drop in home values for the oxbottom area over the next year? I am looking for a house within the next 4 months. my realator hasn't been so great.
Thank you Buddy. That is a great idea and I will try to get a "Tallahassee Lot Sales" blog post out in the next week or so.
Hey Mark, I hate to say it, but ... yes. The data shows sales levels so low in a typically hot subdivision, so I think the pricing point will emphasized even more so in Ox Bottom than in other areas. And before anybody in Ox Bottom gets mad at this, they need to understand that other areas have seen more pricing corrections than Ox Bottom has, so that is why I believe it is inevitable. It is not realistic that people will stop moving out of Ox Bottom at a rate different than the past.
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