Homes That Failed To Sell In Tallahassee February 4, 2010

We are seeing an unexpected but predictable "good move" in the following real estate graph, which measures the "failure rate" of homes that were listed for sale in Tallahassee. This is the measure of the number of homes that departed the market without a successful sale over the past 365 days, divided by the number of new listings during that same period of time.

  • Unexpected: Normally, the number of homes coming on the market starts to increase at the end of February, which increases the denominator in our equation, thus increasing the failure rate. But listings continue to decline this year, thus giving us an unexpected assist in reducing the inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee.
  • Predictable: Knowing that inventory is coming onto the market at a slower rate than last year makes it fairly easy to forecast a reduction in the failure rate. It is not a true reduction in failures, it is just the nature of the measurement process we use to estimate the failure rate in the market.

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