The housing market continues to be hot, despite no end in sight for the COVID-19 pandemic.
As I have reported lately, if there were more existing home sellers and more new homes being built, they would all sell right now. We are in the midst of a “one for the record books” seller’s market, with buyers competing for the limited inventory of homes for sale.
With buyers having to fight for homes, chaos reigns supreme, so I was wondering, “is the housing market too hot?” Is the current rate of sales sustainable? Are we seeing 2003 through 2006 conditions happening again?
Today’s housing market report starts with a look at the big picture, the US housing market, and then drills down to Leon County and finally to zip code level in the Tallahassee real estate market.
Follow along to find out if the market is oversold, or if it’s just “cookin’ with gas!”
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US Housing Market
The following graph shows the number of homes sold in the US from 1989 to the present. 2020 sales figures have been estimated by annualizing the current number of homes sold. New home sales are shown in blue, stacked on top of existing home sales shown in red.
The US housing market is certainly hot, though it is on pace to fall short of a record by more than a million home sales. As it stands right now, it looks as if 2020 will finish as the fifth or six strongest years on record.
Bear in mind, the US population is growing, thus one would expect over time that the number of home sales would grow too. The population is 12% larger than it was in 2005 when the greatest number of homes were sold, and today’s population is 25% larger than it was at the starting point on this graph.
I believe the large population growth suggests plenty of upside in the US housing market. Sure, the pandemic could have a disastrous impact on our economy and we have to closely monitor what is going on, but the long-term outlook for the US housing market is strong and I would say with great confidence that home sales across the US are not “too hot.”
Tallahassee Housing Market
The following graph shows the number of homes sold in Leon County, Florida from 1991 to the present. 2020 sales figures have been estimated by annualizing the current number of homes sold. New home sales are shown in blue, stacked on top of existing home sales shown in red.
The Tallahassee housing market is not as energetic as the US housing market, though home sales are solid in 2020. As it stands right now, it looks as if this year will finish as the tenth or eleventh best year of the past thirty years. That means we’re likely to finish among the top third of all years. Does that sound “too hot” to you?
Tallahassee’s population has risen significantly more than has the US population during this time. We are 15% larger than we were during the record-setting year of 2005 and a whopping 52% larger than we were in 1991. There are just a lot more people living here now than in the past.
I believe there is significantly more upside in the Tallahassee real estate market, and barring large health or economic issues from the pandemic, the upside for Tallahassee home sales is very strong.
Upon viewing Tallahassee’s current rate of sales and comparing it with the past, I can say with great confidence that home sales in Tallahassee are not “too hot.”
Tallahassee Home Values Are Moving Higher
As we drill down further into the Tallahassee real estate market, we see that home values through the first seven months of 2020 have risen 6.3% higher than home values through the first seven months of 2019.
The appreciation graph lists all active zip codes in the Tallahassee real estate market and looks at the change in values of existing homes (meaning no new home sales).
The 32303 and 32310 zip codes are leading all others with homes appreciating at rates exceeding 8% in 2020. Only 32317 has a lower than historically average rate of appreciation thus far in 2020, with a rate of roughly 1/2 of the norm.
Now referring back to the question posed in the title of this article, is an overall appreciation rate of 6% too hot? Considering the average appreciation rate in the 1990s was just over 3%, I would say this is a major concern. But I also believe this rate is going to move higher.
For those readers who wish to know more about my thoughts on rampant appreciation, I suggest you watch my video on home prices (inflation-adjusted) here.
Tallahassee Home Prices By Zip Code
Let’s continue to drill down into the Tallahassee real estate market to find out what people are spending on homes in each of the active zip codes.
Northeast Tallahassee continues to top all other segments of the housing market when it comes to the average price of homes sold. The 32312 zip code unsurprisingly came out on top with an average home price of $350K, while 32304 continues to deliver the least expensive homes averaging just over $100K. Overall, the average price of an existing home sold in Tallahassee in 2020 has been $239K.
Are home prices too hot? Again, as with values, yes they are. But don’t expect to see homes get any cheaper unless we have a major disruption of our economy due to the pandemic. I addressed the differences between new and existing homes in this video, showing that costs are so much higher now in Leon County that we’re going to see all homes getting more expensive.
Our report will now drill down to the zip code level of the housing market, and as you’ll see, the results are not consistently distributed across the active zip codes in the Tallahassee real estate market. I have assembled them below in numerical order.
Each graph contains the total number of homes sold each year, both new and existing, and while previous years contain all twelve months of the year, the current year only contains home sales through a few days prior to when you are reading this report.
The previous graphs are static and will not change over time. But the following graphs for each zip code are dynamic and will update whenever new home sales are posted. For this reason, my analysis will be based on the date this article was posted.
Average Home Price 32301 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32301 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 seeing fewer homes sold than were reported in 2019, making 2020 a top-ten year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32301 zip code is not “too hot!”
The average home price in the 32301 zip code has risen less than 2% over last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of about 3% in 2020.
Average Home Price 32303 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32303 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 posting more homes sold than were reported in any year going back to 2007, making 2020 a top-five year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32303 zip code is not “too hot,” though it will only be outpaced by the explosive years of 2003 through 2006.
The average home price in the 32303 zip code has risen just under 7% over last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of nearly 12% in 2020 and is already an all-time high record.
Average Home Price 32304 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32304 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 posting more homes sold than were reported in any year going back to 2006, making 2020 a top-four year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32304 zip code is not “too hot,” though it will only be outpaced by the explosive years of 2004 through 2006.
The average home price in the 32304 zip code has risen just over 8.5% over last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of more than 14% in 2020 though it is still below the all-time high record.
Average Home Price 32305 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32305 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 seeing more homes sold than were reported in 2019 but less than many other recent years, making 2020 a top-twelve year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32305 zip code is not “too hot!”
The average home price in the 32305 zip code has risen 21% over last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of about 36% in 2020. I suspect we’ll see this pace cool off as the second half of the year plays out.
Average Home Price 32308 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32308 zip code.
Average Home Prices
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 posting more homes sold than were reported in any previous year, making 2020 the top year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe one could say that the real estate market in the 32308 zip code is “too hot,” though it has to finish as strong as it started but with less inventory.
Also, unlike what we saw from most other zip codes, the years 2004 through 2006 did not experience the spike in sales as there were very few new homes built in this zip code and speculators were shopping elsewhere.
The average home price in the 32308 zip code has risen just over 8% more than last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of more than 13% in 2020 and this average price has already achieved the all-time record high.
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Average Home Price 32309 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32309 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 seeing about the same number of homes sold that were reported in 2019, making 2020 a middle of the pack year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32309 zip code is not “too hot!”
The average home price in the 32309 zip code has risen more than 6.5% over last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of about 11% in 2020.
Average Home Price 32310 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32310 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 seeing fewer homes sold than were reported in 2019, making 2020 a middle of the pack year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32310 zip code is not “too hot!”
The average home price in the 32310 zip code has exploded nearly 35% higher than last year’s average, meaning that something serious must be going on in the 32310 zip code.
The 32310 zip code is located in Tallahassee’s SW quadrant and has a combination of lower-priced inner-city homes combined with higher-priced homes on and around Lake Talquin.
When you take those two extreme’s and then factor in a relatively few number of sales each year, there is going to be volatility in the data. This year, the average sales price is 29% higher than the median sales price, meaning a few high-end sales are skewing the average much higher.
Average Home Price 32311 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32311 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 posting more homes sold than were reported in any year going back to 2007, making 2020 a top-four year for homes sold.
The 32311 zip code is located in Southeast Tallahassee and we often say that as goes the Southwood community, so too goes the 32311 zip code. Some day in the near future when new home sales are exhausted in Southwood, we’ll see the resale market stabilize and the expected number of home sales will be far less than what we saw during Southwood’s large growth years from 2001 through the present.
Based on current activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32311 zip code is not “too hot,” though 2020 will only be outpaced by the explosive years of 2004 through 2006.
The average home price in the 32311 zip code has risen just over 5% over last year’s average, meaning the pace should lead to an average home price change of about 10% in 2020 though it is still below the all-time high record.
Average Home Price 32312 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32312 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 seeing more homes sold than were reported in 2019, but fewer than many in the past, making 2020 a top-ten year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32312 zip code is not “too hot!”
The average home price in the 32312 zip code has not moved much over the past three years but does sit at an all-time high of $350K.
Average Home Price 32317 Zip Code
The following chart shows the number of homes sold and the average price each year in the 32317 zip code.
Average Home Price
The current rate of home sales will result in 2020 posting more homes sold than were reported in any year going back to 2006, making 2020 a top-five year for homes sold. Based on this activity, I believe it is fair to say that the real estate market in the 32317 zip code is not “too hot,” though it will only be outpaced by the explosive years of 2002 through 2005.
The average home price in the 32317 zip code has come down just over 1% in 2020 when compared to last year’s average. I would expect to see this reverse and move higher by year’s end.
Why The Housing Market Is Not “Too Hot”
That’s about as far down as we’re going to dig today. I started this article with three questions: “Is the housing market too hot? Is the current rate of sales sustainable? Are we seeing 2003 through 2006 conditions happening again?”
We’ve seen that the national market is not too hot, nor is the larger local market, nor are the zip codes in our area.
The population both locally and nationally has grown, so we expect to see the housing market grow too, though there are cycles and influencers far beyond just population growth that will have short-term impacts on the market.
The current rate of sales is much lower than the peak-of-the-market years and should be sustainable at current or even higher levels and today’s market does not even closely resemble the speculative market from 2003 through 2006.
Think about how many times we saw zip codes only selling at the fourth, fifth, and even twelfth best year on record? Does that sound like an out of control housing market to you? It certainly does not seem so to me.
If you have further questions or feedback on today’s topic, I welcome your input in the comments section below.
Recent Home Sales
The following table lists the most recent 1,000 homes sold in the Tallahassee real estate market.
Recent Tallahassee Home Sales
| Address | Price | Price / SQF | Closing Date | Year Built | SQF | Sale Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4034 Delvin Dr | $379,000 | $218 | 2026-10-09 | 1973 | 1,740 | Resale |
| 998 Rosebay Court | $950,000 | $261 | 2026-10-09 | 1986 | 3,633 | Resale |
| 2128 Wembley Way | $295,000 | $212 | 2026-10-09 | 1980 | 1,391 | Resale |
| 3917 Ardmore Ln | $600,000 | $252 | 2026-10-09 | 2026 | 2,378 | New |
| 487 Grand Oaks Rd | $405,000 | $225 | 2026-10-09 | 2023 | 1,804 | New |
| 2316 Cobb Dr | $615,000 | $198 | 2026-10-09 | 2000 | 3,104 | Resale |
| 6429 Jet Pilot Trl | $260,200 | $151 | 2026-10-09 | 1986 | 1,718 | Resale |
| 8605 Coach Rd | $560,000 | $193 | 2026-10-09 | 1981 | 2,908 | Resale |
| 300 S Duval St | $217,000 | $309 | 2026-10-09 | 2009 | 703 | Resale |
| 9526 Old Woodville Rd | $180,000 | $158 | 2026-10-09 | 1967 | 1,140 | Resale |
| 2705 Roberts Ave | $115,000 | $93 | 2026-10-09 | 2002 | 1,232 | Resale |
| 1306 Leewood Dr | $467,500 | $259 | 2026-10-08 | 1964 | 1,807 | Resale |
| 5431 Water Valley Ct | $255,000 | $237 | 2026-10-08 | 1992 | 1,076 | Resale |
| 3399 Mizell St | $290,000 | $223 | 2026-10-07 | 2026 | 1,301 | New |
| 1823 Tyndall Dr | $182,500 | $195 | 2026-10-07 | 1959 | 934 | Resale |
| 3111 Brockton Way | $315,000 | $253 | 2026-10-06 | 1983 | 1,246 | Resale |
| 1574 Goodwood Dr | $310,000 | $185 | 2026-10-06 | 1976 | 1,679 | Resale |
| 9570 Starhawk Dr | $550,000 | $189 | 2026-10-06 | 2001 | 2,907 | Resale |
| 4186 Ridge Haven Rd | $208,000 | $162 | 2026-10-06 | 2006 | 1,286 | Resale |
| 3113 Shannon Lakes N | $455,000 | $205 | 2026-10-05 | 1986 | 2,222 | Resale |
| 4349 Camden Rd | $300,000 | $144 | 2026-10-05 | 1984 | 2,086 | Resale |
| 2463 Tippecanoe Rdg | $345,000 | $219 | 2026-10-05 | 2018 | 1,574 | Resale |
| 1575 Paul Russell Rd Apt 5010 | $220,000 | $129 | 2026-10-05 | 2005 | 1,705 | Resale |
| 844 Brookwood Dr | $407,500 | $237 | 2026-10-02 | 1958 | 1,716 | Resale |
| 415 Williams St Apt B | $261,000 | $183 | 2026-10-02 | 1984 | 1,428 | Resale |
| 6704 Johnstown Loop | $340,000 | $180 | 2026-10-02 | 1984 | 1,888 | Resale |
| 6708 Chant Trl | $335,000 | $242 | 2026-10-02 | 1979 | 1,386 | Resale |
| 5161 Holly Fern Trce | $455,000 | $242 | 2026-10-02 | 2016 | 1,879 | Resale |
| 10564 Lake Iamonia Dr | $504,000 | $238 | 2026-10-02 | 1993 | 2,121 | Resale |
| 756 Rhoden Cove Rd | $596,000 | $195 | 2026-10-02 | 1985 | 3,051 | Resale |
| 2788 Summer Meadow Dr | $280,000 | $146 | 2026-10-02 | 2006 | 1,922 | Resale |
| 215 W College Ave Apt 903 | $300,000 | $270 | 2026-10-02 | 2006 | 1,112 | Resale |
| 7512 Talley Ann Dr | $240,000 | $218 | 2026-10-02 | 1981 | 1,103 | Resale |
| 6051 Flintlock Loop | $392,500 | $232 | 2026-10-02 | 1990 | 1,692 | Resale |
| 2933 Tipperary Ct | $395,000 | $206 | 2026-10-01 | 1971 | 1,921 | Resale |
| 2544 Centerville Ct | $222,000 | $178 | 2026-10-01 | 2000 | 1,244 | Resale |
| 1489 Vieux Carre Dr | $696,000 | $288 | 2026-10-01 | 2002 | 2,415 | Resale |
| 2938 Abbotsford Way | $500,000 | $181 | 2026-10-01 | 1978 | 2,757 | Resale |
| 540 Bienville Pl | $687,900 | $238 | 2026-10-01 | 2026 | 2,890 | New |
| 241 Old Dirt Rd | $399,000 | $168 | 2026-10-01 | 1971 | 2,368 | Resale |
| 1653 Copperfield Cir | $439,000 | $214 | 2026-10-01 | 1992 | 2,054 | Resale |
| 5050 Velda Dairy Rd | $797,000 | $259 | 2026-10-01 | 1979 | 3,072 | Resale |
| 2801 Chancellorsville Dr Unit 934 | $131,000 | $120 | 2026-10-01 | 2004 | 1,096 | Resale |
| 5188 Holly Fern Trce | $599,500 | $245 | 2026-10-01 | 2017 | 2,447 | Resale |
| 6311 Bird Dog Pt | $1,100,000 | $349 | 2026-10-01 | 2014 | 3,151 | Resale |
| 3400 Old Bainbridge Rd Apt 402 | $155,000 | $113 | 2026-10-01 | 2004 | 1,368 | Resale |
| 300 S Duval St | $310,000 | $261 | 2026-10-01 | 2009 | 1,186 | New |
| 1334 Kings Dr | $164,000 | $186 | 2026-10-01 | 1983 | 882 | Resale |
| 415 Saint Francis St Apt 138 | $307,000 | $341 | 2026-10-01 | 2007 | 900 | Resale |
| 2348 Ryan Pl | $215,000 | $181 | 2026-09-30 | 1983 | 1,188 | Resale |
| 3624 Craigs House Ct | $408,000 | $227 | 2026-09-30 | 1991 | 1,794 | Resale |
| 2005 N Meridian Rd Apt F | $178,500 | $167 | 2026-09-30 | 1984 | 1,067 | Resale |
| 2581 Panther Creek Rd Unit B | $180,000 | $203 | 2026-09-30 | 1981 | 885 | Resale |
| 3526 Sedona Loop | $225,000 | $240 | 2026-09-30 | 1987 | 939 | Resale |
| 4106 Beauregard Way | $460,000 | $209 | 2026-09-30 | 2026 | 2,200 | New |
| 543 Bienville Pl | $369,100 | $240 | 2026-09-30 | 2026 | 1,535 | New |
| 184 Bienville Pl | $565,000 | $220 | 2026-09-30 | 2024 | 2,572 | Resale |
| 3029 Bidhurst Ct | $400,000 | $224 | 2026-09-30 | 2010 | 1,782 | Resale |
| 201 Myddelton Trce | $430,000 | $243 | 2026-09-30 | 2002 | 1,766 | Resale |
| 2325 Haverhill Rd | $515,000 | $189 | 2026-09-30 | 1984 | 2,729 | Resale |
| 8364 Bull Headley Rd | $451,600 | $251 | 2026-09-30 | 2025 | 1,802 | New |
| 6375 Thomasville Rd | $854,000 | $189 | 2026-09-30 | 1981 | 4,529 | Resale |
| 6842 Donerail Trl | $295,000 | $235 | 2026-09-30 | 1981 | 1,253 | Resale |
| 5752 Cypress Cir | $208,000 | $188 | 2026-09-30 | 1979 | 1,104 | Resale |
| 4309 Calcutta Ct | $255,000 | $148 | 2026-09-30 | 1979 | 1,722 | Resale |
| 4074 Riverwood Rd | $362,000 | $175 | 2026-09-30 | 1987 | 2,070 | Resale |
| 3214 Springdale Dr | $315,000 | $184 | 2026-09-30 | 2000 | 1,712 | Resale |
| 2981 Byington Cir | $164,000 | $131 | 2026-09-30 | 1991 | 1,255 | Resale |
| 2109 Pecan Ln Apt B | $145,000 | $131 | 2026-09-30 | 1981 | 1,104 | Resale |
| 2466 Tippecanoe Rdg | $355,000 | $210 | 2026-09-30 | 2023 | 1,690 | Resale |
| 1814 Lilac Dr | $135,000 | $132 | 2026-09-30 | 1982 | 1,024 | Resale |
| 2178 Timberwood Cir S | $170,000 | $144 | 2026-09-30 | 1993 | 1,184 | Resale |
| 2926 Oakwood Dr | $95,000 | $99 | 2026-09-30 | 1972 | 957 | Resale |
| 1917 Corvallis Ave | $160,000 | $136 | 2026-09-30 | 2008 | 1,177 | Resale |
| 1134 Willow Crossing Dr | $379,000 | $240 | 2026-09-30 | 2019 | 1,580 | Resale |
| 1111 Brafforton Dr | $195,000 | $193 | 2026-09-30 | 1991 | 1,008 | Resale |
| 2390 Quazar Cir | $200,000 | $171 | 2026-09-30 | 2006 | 1,173 | Resale |
| 524 Lynndale St | $61,500 | $72 | 2026-09-30 | 1955 | 850 | Resale |
| 2545 Lantana Ln | $525,000 | $246 | 2026-09-30 | 2016 | 2,137 | Resale |
| 220 Young St | $120,000 | $125 | 2026-09-30 | 1950 | 958 | Resale |
| 5627 Fletcher Oaks Dr | $144,200 | $85 | 2026-09-29 | 2022 | 1,702 | Resale |
| 528 E Pensacola St | $188,000 | $271 | 2026-09-29 | 1948 | 695 | Resale |
| 206 Belmont Rd | $195,000 | $148 | 2026-09-29 | 1974 | 1,314 | Resale |
| 227 Nabb Rd | $375,000 | $181 | 2026-09-29 | 2005 | 2,076 | Resale |
| 1816 Folkstone Rd | $369,900 | $233 | 2026-09-29 | 2019 | 1,587 | Resale |
| 8388 Bull Headley Rd | $441,600 | $245 | 2026-09-29 | 2026 | 1,802 | New |
| 3257 Lord Murphy Trl | $270,000 | $149 | 2026-09-29 | 1989 | 1,815 | Resale |
| 3735 Ravine Dr | $320,000 | $213 | 2026-09-29 | 1993 | 1,502 | Resale |
| 2403 Hartsfield Rd Apt 607 | $130,000 | $107 | 2026-09-29 | 2004 | 1,216 | Resale |
| 5540 Green Meadows Ct | $225,000 | $195 | 2026-09-29 | 2002 | 1,156 | Resale |
| 1125 Azalea Dr | $415,000 | $207 | 2026-09-29 | 1954 | 2,008 | Resale |
| 1529 Lake Ave | $119,900 | $157 | 2026-09-29 | 1984 | 765 | Resale |
| 603 Famcee Ave | $270,000 | $196 | 2026-09-29 | 1956 | 1,376 | Resale |
| 18184 Blountstown Hwy | $200,000 | $151 | 2026-09-29 | 1928 | 1,324 | Resale |
| 4019 Kilmartin Dr | $435,000 | $204 | 2026-09-28 | 1987 | 2,132 | Resale |
| 3026 Bell Grove Dr | $425,000 | $195 | 2026-09-28 | 1986 | 2,174 | Resale |
| 465 Olivia Rose Ave | $450,000 | $284 | 2026-09-28 | 2022 | 1,586 | Resale |
| 8503 Congressional Dr | $1,700,000 | $244 | 2026-09-28 | 2001 | 6,960 | Resale |
| 5600 Rustic Dr | $195,500 | $174 | 2026-09-28 | 1977 | 1,125 | Resale |
| 2618 Faversham Dr | $206,500 | $145 | 2026-09-28 | 1982 | 1,420 | Resale |
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