Housing Market Inventory Update September 2020

We have included five important graphs and provided an explanation of eachThe supply-side of the housing market has slowed progress for the past 6 months, so today's report will examine and reveal what is happening to the inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee.

We have included five important graphs and provided an explanation of each, after which you should be fully informed about the supply of homes in the market.

Start by looking at the current listings for sale in Tallahassee. They are sorted from highest to lowest price. As you scroll down by asking price, the percentage of homes under contract goes through the roof.

There are even more homes for sale marked "pending," though they have been removed from our search because they are soon to close with qualified buyers.

Listings In The Tallahassee Housing Market

738 Properties
Page 1 of 62

This week's housing market report focuses on the supply-side of the Tallahassee real estate market. We'll examine several different graphs that depict the current state of the inventory shortage in the housing marketing, starting with year-over-year fresh listings and culminating with a look at how well the new homes market is faring in its attempt to satisfy the need for more new homes.

Year Over Year New Listings Decline

Our first graph in today's report shows year-over-year fresh listings. "Fresh" means that the home has not been recently listed for sale with its current or another real estate company.

Each line in the graph below measures the percentage change in fresh listings from the same month the prior year. A green line reports growth, while a red one reveals a decline.

Year-over-year new listings graph

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a clear impact on existing home sellers entering the market. The past five months have shown fewer homes listed each month than in the same five months of 2020.

We saw about 12% fewer fresh listings in August than were recorded in August 2019, showing that a percentage of homeowners are still leary about listing their home during these trying times.

I believe some of this might be related to job uncertainty and some is related to the concern for safety from the virus. Either way, the decline in fresh listings is keeping the market grossly undersupplied of homes for sale in Tallahassee.

The next graph shows the seasonal nature of sellers entering the market and might help us forecast the likely listing activity in the following months.

When Sellers Normally List Their Home

This graph uses the fresh listings reported from 2013 through 2019 (seven full years) to establish the listing behavior of existing homeowners in Tallahassee.

Graph showing when homes are listed throughout the year

Historically, the months of September through December yield the fewest fresh listings of all months of the year. Does that mean we should expect to see the same in 2020?

Normally, I would answer with an unequivocal "YES" to that question. But here is why I have some doubts and think we might just see a different pattern this year.

First of all, demand is scorching hot right now. We are seeing multiple offers on most of our listings and that means there are plenty of buyers awaiting new homes. Those that get listed and marketed properly, will get sold.

Second, there is a growing pool of pent-up supply. This is that group of homeowners who have chosen not to enter the market due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Now that the economy is recovering and people are getting back to work, many of these homeowners are going to want to take advantage of historically low mortgage interest rates. They will need to sell their homes for their move to their new homes.

Third, I expect to see less travel and smaller gatherings during the holiday season. The holidays are typically the #1 reason that we hear from sellers about why they want to wait to list until the new year. This year, they will have less reasons to wait.

When you put all three of those factors together, I think there is a good chance that we'll see some year-over-year gains in the months to come. The market is too hot to ignore for people with homes to sell. In fact, our next graph will reveal just how hot it is for sellers.

Home Seller Success Rate

This graph measures what I call the "home seller success rate." As simple as this graph appears to be, it actually takes many hours each month to produce. We have to remove a lot of duplicate information in the MLS in order to find out the percentage of sellers who are successful in selling their homes with their first real estate agent.

Graph of home seller success rate over time

I really wish I had the data to show you what this graph looked like back in 2008 through 2012. At one point, I had measured the success rate to be just below 40%, can you imagine. Back then, less than 4 out of every 10 home sellers got their home sold during their first 6 month listing period.

But times change and market conditions are ripe for home sellers. The graph above shows that 87% of home sellers right now are getting their homes sold with the first agent hired.

To say that "now is the time to sell" is a gross understatement.

Our final two graphs are going to clearly reveal the impact that concerned homeowners are having on the inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee, as well as the impact that local builders are bringing. Can we build our way out of a housing shortage?

There are a lot of people who endorse Joe for the job of selling your home, from Barbara Corcoran (Star of ABC's Shark Tank) to Preston Scott (host of Tallahassee's top daily "Audio Magazine," as well as the thousands of happy customers Joe has helped in the past. Listen why!

Year To Date New Listings

This graph measures the fresh, existing homes entering the market from January through August of each year. This means that it DOES NOT include new construction homes (which will be examined in the final graph) and it does not include sellers who had been listed with a previous company.

For those readers who understand how the MLS works, it also shows each listing on the date it was initially listed. So those agents who keep canceling and relisting their unsold properties do not have an effect on this report.

Graph of new listings (Year To Date) for 7 years

Thus far in 2020, through August, there have been 3,148 fresh homes listed for sale in the Tallahassee MLS. That is 15% fewer than last year and the fewest of the past 20 years, though I only have the data shown for the past seven years.

Remember, this does not include new construction, just existing homeowners deciding (for the first time) to enter the market.

This 15% decline is 545 homes that the market desperately needs and represents pent-up supply that will eventually find its way to the market. Will they all hit in the Spring, or will some enter in the final quarter of 2020? Time will tell.

Either way, they will be consumed by the pent-up demand from buyers who cannot find homes right now (unless the builders beat them to the buyers).

Year To Date New Construction Homes Listed

It appears as if the home builders in Tallahassee have heard our pleas as the construction of new units is growing.

Our final graph shows the new construction homes listed for sale in the Tallahassee MLS from January through August of each year going back to 2014.

Graph Of The Number Of Year To Date New Construction Homes Listed

It’s nice to see that the construction of new homes is up 51% in 2020 versus what we saw a year ago. This is rather impressive as I can imagine that builders and their subcontractors are dealing with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

This graph shows listings, not sales, so we’ll have to keep an eye out on closings and then report back to you on whether or not these new homes are making it to the closing table. I have heard reports about a backlog of various materials and appliances that new homes require.

What To Do If You Have A Home To Sell

The smartest thing you can do if you have a home to sell is to spend a few minutes discussing your needs and wants with a listing specialist. In fact, you can book a 15-minute call right here if you like. There are no strings attached and we'll listen to what you want to accomplish and let you know if it is possible in today's climate.

Your Local Expert In Tallahassee

When moving to, in, or from Tallahassee, you will fare better if you work with a local expert. We are here to help. If you have further questions on the Tallahassee real estate market, you can leave a comment below, give us a call at (850) 366-8917, or drop us a note and we'll give you the local information needed to ensure a successful, smooth transaction.

As a local born and raised in Tallahassee with a focus on customer service, I promise you'll find great success when working with Joe Manausa Real Estate, just as have our past customers. You can read thousands of their reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow right here: Real Estate Agent Reviews Tallahassee.

The digital marketing guide for small businessesHave you heard about my new book "The Business of Getting Business?" It's a comprehensive guide for small businesses to help them make the move to digital. For those of us who want to survive and thrive in a world where large corporations are taking over, it is a must-read. It's also the perfect guide for how to sell a home in the digital age. You can find The Business Of Getting Business by clicking on any of the trusted retailers below.

Real Estate Agent reveals in Tallahassee, Florida

Think all REALTORS are alike?

Read what people are saying about working with Joe Manausa Real Estate! You can see thousands of real customer reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow at this link: CLICK HERE FOR REAL ESTATE AGENT REVIEWS.

TEMP

Top 10 Tallahassee New Construction Neighborhoods
Living In Tallahassee. The top-ten selling builder communities in Tallahassee in 2022, with insight on what it costs to live in each neighborhood as well as the number of homes that sold.
Top 10 Patio Home Neighborhoods In Tallahassee
Real Estate: Patio homes are growing in popularity in Tallahassee as much of the new construction sold in tract housing neighborhoods are on lots much smaller than homes built before 2000.
Top 10 Tallahassee Neighborhoods
If you want to know where homebuyers chose to live in 2021, then this video was produced specifically for you. Follow along as I share the top-ten selling communities in Tallahassee in 2021, with insight on what it costs to live in each neighborhood as well as the number of homes that sold.
How Bad Is It? SHOCKING Building Permits Report!
The lack of home affordability has become a widely discussed issue in the media - the shortfall in new single-family home permits and multi-family property permits and construction exacerbates the current housing crisis.
Existing Homes Update - Tallahassee Real Estate
Just as you find in most local US housing markets, the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee remains far too few, measuring below 900 properties and just above 500 when you remove those already under contract with buyers.
Are Wages Keeping Up With Rising Home Prices
Home prices are rising. Mortgage interest rates are rising. Are people earning enough money to buy homes today, or is the home affordability crisis getting worse?
High-End Homes Market Update
Our high-end homes market update reports the strong rate of luxury home sales, but current trends suggest we'll see the high-end of the housing market cool fast as the rest of 2022 unfolds
Economic Outlook For The Housing Market
Joe Manausa gives an update on the economic outlook for Tallahassee and the US housing market. Includes housing market forecast, housing market activity, and new construction analysis, and reveals how Tallahassee compares with the overall US housing market.
Building Permits Reveal Major Housing Crisis
How do we know there is a major housing crisis brewing? Look no further than building permits! This video examines building permits in detail, as the issue of home affordability is going to become one of the most prominent topics for many years in the national media.
6 Housing Market Rumors Debunked (1 Confirmed)
7 different housing market rumors are perpetuated as “FACT” in various forms of "hype." Discussion of this "housing market news" has been ongoing for years, so today, I want to put them all to rest.
Tallahassee Real Estate Report March 2022
The pace of this video moves fast, and I cover more than ten key real estate trends, so you might want to go back to any graph that you want to spend more time on.
Home Ownership Is Radically Different For Millennials
This is a simple millennial housing case study that will clearly show that the millennials will face a housing market like no other generation going back to post-World War II.
Are We Overbuilding Again?
I've been asked recently for my opinion on the number of homes being built in the US. Specifically, people are wondering if the ghost of 2006 has come back to bring more homes to the market than what can be consumed?
Why It's Alway About Supply And Demand In Real Estate
It's all about supply and demand. The real estate supply and demand dynamic tells us everything we need to know to forecast home sales in any given area.
Is Home Ownership A Hedge Against Inflation?
Could homeownership today still be a smart hedge against inflation? This is a study of real estate during inflation.
Interesting Employment Dynamic Impacts Home Sales
Home sales in the United States are vibrant, and we can look to the economy as a big reason homes are selling. I have found a pocket of data on the Federal Reserve Economic Data website that explains the vitality of the US housing market.
How Soaring Home Prices Are Impacting The Housing Market
Report includes three graphs that show just how far home prices have risen as we move towards conditions where home affordability might become the greatest challenge the housing market has EVER embraced.
New Versus Existing Home Values Creates Bubble?
New Versus Existing Home Values | Is A New Housing Bubble Forming? Have you noticed the difference between new versus existing home values and wondered is a new housing bubble forming?
Home Affordability Crisis - Major Housing Market Shift
Home affordability is plummeting, and this home affordability forecast explains why real estate prices are becoming less affordable with each passing month.
Homeownership Rate Crash #shorts
60 Second Video: Homeownership is going to decline over the next 30 years, as home affordability hits the worst levels seen since the end of World War II. This is a generational shift in the housing market
Multi-Family Properties - Are They Appreciating Fast Too?
In this video, I discuss the status and market projection of the multi-family homes market. The data I will provide show how multi-family properties compare to single-family homes, market behavior, and how much both have appreciated over the past ten years, comparatively.
How Often Do Home Prices Fall?
Are home prices falling? Will house prices fall soon? Home prices are soaring, buyers are having to pay above most sellers' asking prices, and the housing market feels just like a feeding frenzy during Shark Week on the Discovery Channel.
Tallahassee Builders Association Real Estate Outlook
The Tallahassee Builders Association meeting where Joe Manausa gives an update on the real estate outlook in Tallahassee. Includes housing market forecast, housing market activity, new construction analysis, and reveals how Tallahassee compares with the overall US housing market.
Central North Florida Home Sales Report
Average home prices, average home values, and average home sizes in each of the 8 counties of Central North Florida
What Do Low Mortgage Interest Rates Really Mean?
Every article or video about mortgage interest rates conveys that rates are low, but do you really know what it means?
Are Home Sales Sustainable At Today's Pace?
The housing market is hot, but is it too hot? Can we keep selling homes at the rates we're seeing today, or is this a case of what goes up, must come down? The answer to are home sale sustainable can be found with a study of historic home sales rates and population growth trends, allowing us to forecast future home sales.

Post a Comment

(850) 378-5727