7 Different Views Of The Tallahassee Housing Market
The year is half-way over and we've been tracking the market activity on a near-daily basis over at The Market Bulletin. With the summer buying season well on the way, the market is starting to see activity from buyers who are taking advantage of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit. We know this because are seeing sales increase in the price ranges most often purchased by First Time Homebuyers. Unfortunately, the rest of the market is not seeing a whole lot of vitality. Homes that are aggressively positioned in the market are doing quite well (we have one home that had 6 offers on it last week and we negotiated a contract at a price higher than what the seller was asking), but for the most part, the rest are stagnant. Today is real estate graph day ... with 7 updated graphs of the Tallahassee real estate market.
81% Of Homes On The Market Fail To Sell
When we measure the number of homes that failed to sell over the past year and divide that into the number of new home listings, we get a ratio of 81%. That is the highest that we have ever measured the "failure rate" for home sales in Tallahassee. This number does not specifically measure the failure rate, but it is a relative measurement that shows it is getting tougher, not easier, to sell a home in Tallahassee.
Home Buyer Activity Still Cooling
Perhaps the most important factor in rejuvenating this tired real estate market is daily buyer activity. We are anxiously looking forward to the day when this trend turns upward.
Long Term Home Sales Success Trend Sliding
The success rate for home sales in Tallahassee is measured as the number of homes that sold in a period of time, versus the number of homes listed during that same time period. The real estate graph below measures the success rate of home sales in Tallahassee over several time periods. We can see the effect of seasonality on the shorter terms, but the long term trend still is holding at about 35%. One could argue that roughly 1 in 3 homes put on the market over the past year actually sold.
Are you wondering why the success rate and the failure rate, when added together, are greater than 100%? This is simply because fewer homes are coming on the market than are going off the market, thus the total departures are greater than the total of the new listings.
Short Term Home Inventory Trend Still Good
Home inventory levels continue to fall. This is a good thing. The Tallahassee housing market still has over 14 months of supply, so reducing the number of homes on the market will help hold values. This graph shows that the 30 day trend (short term) is still showing fewer and fewer homes on the market in Tallahassee.
Home Inventory Levels Continue To Fall
All of the home inventory change trends in Tallahassee are good. We are seeing everything from short-term trends all the way up to the 1 year trend showing reduced inventory. Currently, the one year trend for home inventories is at a drop of 3 homes per day!
1,096 Fewer Homes On The Market Than Last Year
This is the best news coming out of the Tallahassee real estate market. There are 1,096 fewer homes on the market today versus this day last year! We need to continue to see this number drop until we are able to achieve six months of inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee.
One Year Trend In Tallahassee Housing Shows Lower Activity Levels
The following graph is perhaps the best singular view of the Tallahassee housing market that we provide. It shows daily new listings are still dropping, daily new failures are still flat, daily new sales and daily new pendings (new contracts) continue to decline.
You can check the status of these great Tallahassee real estate barometers any time at The Market Bulletin. We update our charts and graphs there several times per week. Additionally, you can subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter (click graphic below) to receive updates emailed to your inbox on a monthly basis.
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Great Charts, appreciate the effort you put into them. I think the market is a little more dire myself. I found an interesting web site (Federal Reserve Bank of New York, dynamic map) Its mainly a state by state comparison , but it really is disturbing when you compare Alt A and Sub Prime loans in Florida to other states. With Alt-A loans in Florida the number of loans late in the past 12 months were 49.5% (worst in the nation) the share of foreclosures is 22.7% (worst in the nation). With sub-prime the number of Florida loans late in the past 12 months is 72.2% (worst in the nation) and the share of foreclosure is 27.6% (worst in the nation). These are very disturbing figures. I know it is more indicative of central and south Florida, but there is reason to believe that this caries over statewide. These figures are as of April this year. They can be viewed at http://www.newyorkfed.org/mortgagemaps/ . I think there are a lot of people out there barely hanging on and with resets coming, it could get worse. Price your houses to sell........!
Good points Doug, but I wish they had combined the data with conventional loans. They do not indicate what % of our loans are Alt-A or subprime, so how much of a minority/majority of the whole are we dealing with? Either way, this is all part of the shadow inventory that I referred to a few weeks ago.
Thanks for the link, I'll check it out.
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