Tallahassee Single Family Resale Home Numbers Have Fallen
The buzz around town (at least in my Tallahassee Real Estate world) is everybody speculating about what the Tallahassee housing market is going to do this year. In yesterday's blog, I summarized Dr. Hank Fishkind's 2009 Real Estate Forecast for the State of Florida, as well as what his expectations are for the Tallahassee real estate market. We will go into great detail about his findings in our newsletter (click here for The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter).
But just as I pointed out last year, Fishkind uses numbers that differ with mine. If you are a regular reader of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog, then you know that I prudently track all sales in Tallahassee (Leon County), not just the ones reported in the Tallahassee MLS. We have reported that Tallahassee REALTORs only account for about 2/3rds of the market, therefore we have to track all deed filings to really know the complete market view.
Tallahassee Single Family Resale Home Numbers Have Fallen
While our numbers differ quite a bit from the numbers reported in the Fishkind 2009 Real Estate Forecast, they do parallel in showing that prices have gone up since 2000 and volume has dropped since 2005. The major difference is that we are still holding price much better than he concludes, therefore I have to wonder if the partial data that he is using is affecting his conclusions.
In the real estate graph above, Fishkind reports average price per year as shown with the red line, whereas recorded deeds in Leon County (Tallahassee) are shown in the red shaded area. Similarly, Fishkind reports Volume (unit sales) as shown with the blue line, whereas real volume is shown in the blue shaded area.
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Discussion
Is it possible that neither data set is entirely accurate? You suggest that Fishkind leaves out legitimate transactions by using only MS data. But is it also the case that by using "all sales" in Tallahassee, you're capturing transactions that don't necessarily reflect the "real" market? I'm thinking here of trust transfers, intra-family 'deals,' and other R.E. transfers where the competitive nature of the free market is not in play...
Just a thought; I'm certainly no expert.
Thanks Kevin. I guess if you publish your findings, they become the "real deal"
Hey Rich, great to hear from you. I buy my information from Metro Market and have all the transactions in Leon County. His numbers are variably different and usually fewer than mine, so he might be scrubbing the non arms-length deals (as you pointed out).
With him being such a large data aggregator, he most likely would be doing this by eliminating certain deed types, and unfortunately I think most of these are needed to accurately reflect current market conditions. If our foreclosure sales are eliminated, we could be eliminating a good percentage of the market (thus not truly reflecting the competitive nature of the market).
Thanks for the great points.
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