New Home Construction Expectations For 2012
Posted by Joe Manausa on Wednesday, December 21, 2011 at 1:16:07 PM
By Joe Manausa / December 21, 2011
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If you read our Real Estate Forecast for 2012 last week, you might have noticed that it did not specifically address expectations for new home construction in Tallahassee in the coming year.
Home builders in Tallahassee have been struggling through some very tough years since the collapse of the housing market, and I see few reasons why next year should provide any kind of relief. Supply levels are still too high, though they are lower than they have been since 2008.
The first half of 2012 is going to provide critical feedback to the new home construction industry in Tallahassee. Will there be a rush of homes move from the shadow inventory to the open market and increase the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee? Or have we been overly concerned about the return of the scores of homeowners who failed to sell their homes in the past?
New Home Construction Slows In Tallahassee
In the real estate graph above, the green areas shows the number of existing home sales each year, while the red area shows the new home construction sales in Tallahassee each year. It appears as if 2011 will be the worst year on record, though our 2011 measurements currently go through December 15. A strong year-end closing run could turn it from the worst-year ever to just "a really terrible year" for new home builders.
New Home Construction Prices In Tallahassee
One good sign for the return to a healthy new home construction industry in Tallahassee is that prices are on the rise. For many years, we were seeing new home prices fall because much of these sales were liquidation or sell-offs, as builders had over-estimated demand for the Tallahassee real estate market.
As we can see from the graph above, three out of the four quadrants of Leon County are experiencing a rise in new home prices. These areas account for 92% of the new home construction sales in Tallahassee, and that should mean that we are no longer building beyond the limited demand for new home construction in Tallahassee.
Recent New Home Construction Sales In Tallahassee
| Neighborhood | Address | SP | Price/ SQF | Closing Date | Year Built | SQF |
| Hampton Creek | 5610 Hampton Hill Circle | $149,990 | $122 | 12/12/2011 | 2011 | 1,228 |
| Pebble Brooke | 651 Brooke Hampton Drive | $124,990 | $112 | 12/9/2011 | 2010 | 1,114 |
| Southwood | 3610 Strolling Way | $274,500 | $152 | 12/9/2011 | 2011 | 1,809 |
| Southwood | 3143 Nathaniel Trace | $304,700 | $143 | 12/8/2011 | 2011 | 2,124 |
| Southwood | 2405 Goldenrod Way | $284,900 | $142 | 12/8/2011 | 2010 | 2,005 |
| Woodbriar | 3267 Sugar Berry Way | $67,500 | $51 | 12/8/2011 | 2005 | 1,328 |
| Southwood | 3598 Strolling Way | $291,340 | $161 | 12/2/2011 | 2011 | 1,809 |
| Villas At Pine Forest | 1131 Baton Rouge Court | $149,990 | $84 | 11/23/2011 | 2011 | 1,795 |
| Southwood | 3618 Strolling Way | $249,900 | $147 | 11/15/2011 | 2011 | 1,700 |
| Bull Run | 5621 Ringold Lane | $284,900 | $142 | 11/10/2011 | 2011 | 2,005 |
| Park Charleston | 3373 Shadowmoss Dr. (Pch14) | $245,900 | $128 | 11/2/2011 | 2011 | 1,920 |
| Bull Run | 2542 Bennitts Mill Way | $313,700 | $148 | 10/28/2011 | 2011 | 2,124 |
| Bull Run | 2580 Ulysses Rd | $309,900 | $146 | 10/21/2011 | 2011 | 2,124 |
| Premier Place | 3031 Thomasville Road | $375,000 | $163 | 10/21/2011 | 2010 | 2,297 |
| Southwood | 3586 Strolling Way | $309,900 | $148 | 10/21/2011 | 2011 | 2,100 |
| Southwood | 3562 Strolling Way | $306,000 | $146 | 10/15/2011 | 2011 | 2,100 |
| Southwood | 3762 Longfellow Road | $300,000 | $125 | 10/12/2011 | 2011 | 2,400 |
| Park Charleston | 3399 Shadowmoss Dr (Pch19) | $229,550 | $132 | 10/7/2011 | 2011 | 1,740 |
| Bull Run | 5625 Ringold Lane | $289,320 | $144 | 9/30/2011 | 2011 | 2,005 |
| Tallahassee Highlands | 2481 Pennlyn Drive | $127,000 | $94 | 9/30/2011 | 2011 | 1,350 |
| Southwood | 3206 Mossy Creek Lane | $332,000 | $120 | 9/29/2011 | 2011 | 2,767 |
| Bull Run | 2617 Manassas Way | $269,900 | $130 | 9/28/2011 | 2011 | 2,070 |
| Hampton Creek | 5616 Hampton Hill Circle | $149,990 | $122 | 9/28/2011 | 2011 | 1,228 |
| Harwood | 2101 Wakefeild | $173,050 | $109 | 9/23/2011 | 2011 | 1,583 |
| Homestead Ridge | 3413 Almanac | $175,000 | $116 | 9/23/2011 | 2011 | 1,508 |
| Stonebriar | 2323 Cleburn Lane | $247,000 | $112 | 9/23/2011 | 2011 | 2,200 |
| Adiron Woods | 7028 Sawley Lane | $214,000 | $93 | 9/7/2011 | 2011 | 2,300 |
| Southwood | 3602 Strolling Way | $347,947 | $147 | 9/2/2011 | 2011 | 2,362 |
| Wilson Green | 4259 Ridge Haven Road | $98,000 | $74 | 9/1/2011 | 2008 | 1,328 |
| Pebble Brooke | 1021 Chase Creek Circle | $124,990 | $112 | 8/31/2011 | 2010 | 1,114 |
| Pebble Brooke | 647 Brooke Hampton Drive | $124,990 | $112 | 8/31/2011 | 2010 | 1,114 |
| Rivers Landing | 4831 Sampler Dr. | $161,700 | $119 | 8/29/2011 | 2011 | 1,358 |
| Iamonia Lodge Unrec | 12182 Waterfront Drive | $280,000 | $175 | 8/27/2011 | 2010 | 1,600 |
| Baker Place | 3180 Leigh Road | $465,900 | $159 | 8/26/2011 | 2011 | 2,932 |
| Bull Run | 2586 Ulysses Rd | $274,297 | $152 | 8/26/2011 | 2011 | 1,809 |
| Meridian Ridge | 321 Meridian Ridge Court | $200,000 | $133 | 8/25/2011 | 2011 | 1,500 |
| Rivers Landing | 4413 Rivers Landing Drive | $138,000 | $102 | 8/25/2011 | 2011 | 1,358 |
| Bull Run | 2539 Bennits Mill Way | $299,900 | $145 | 8/15/2011 | 2011 | 2,074 |
| Bull Run | 2558 Manassas Way | $249,900 | $142 | 8/15/2011 | 2011 | 1,755 |
| Summer Lake | 2807 Summer Meadow Dr. | $179,900 | $128 | 8/12/2011 | 2011 | 1,401 |
| Golden Eagle Plantation | 2887 Royal Isle | $378,000 | $144 | 8/9/2011 | 2011 | 2,623 |
| Killearn Lakes | 3414 Treaty Oak | $214,000 | $126 | 8/8/2011 | 2011 | 1,701 |
| Southwood | 3626 Strolling Way | $311,211 | $148 | 8/8/2011 | 2010 | 2,100 |
| Bull Run | 2560 Carthage Lane | $305,000 | $140 | 7/29/2011 | 2011 | 2,184 |
| Meridian Ridge | 324 Meridian Ridge Court | $193,200 | $129 | 7/29/2011 | 2011 | 1,500 |
| Olson Crest | 3235 Grant Creek Trail (2-B) | $180,000 | $114 | 7/29/2011 | 2009 | 1,576 |
| Southwood | 3190 Dunbar Lane | $537,000 | $157 | 7/29/2011 | 2011 | 3,426 |
| Tyson Green Condominiums | 3697 Tyson Green Way | $99,000 | $79 | 7/28/2011 | 2008 | 1,260 |
| Bull Run | 2605 Farragut Way | $242,900 | $145 | 7/27/2011 | 2011 | 1,670 |
| Bull Run | 5641 Ringold Lane | $304,900 | $147 | 7/22/2011 | 2011 | 2,074 |
| Southwood | 3606 Strolling Way | $269,900 | $149 | 7/22/2011 | 2011 | 1,809 |
| Southwood | 3571 Strolling Way | $274,900 | $152 | 7/21/2011 | 2011 | 1,809 |
| Woodbriar | 3345 Sawtooth Dr | $64,000 | $48 | 7/20/2011 | 2005 | 1,328 |
| Bull Run | 2595 Farragut Way | $269,900 | $130 | 7/15/2011 | 2011 | 2,070 |
| Bull Run | 5853 Appomattox Way | $266,000 | $129 | 7/15/2011 | 2008 | 2,070 |
| Villas At Pine Forest | 1326 Tuscaloosa Trace | $123,990 | $111 | 7/15/2011 | 2011 | 1,114 |
| Observation Pointe | 6181 Observation Cir | $219,000 | $134 | 7/8/2011 | 2011 | 1,635 |
| Observation Pointe | 6121 Observation Circle | $201,900 | $133 | 7/8/2011 | 2010 | 1,520 |
| Jacksons Gap | 5655 Jacksons Gap | $206,000 | $130 | 7/7/2011 | 2011 | 1,581 |
| Observation Pointe | 6186 Observation Circle | $217,500 | $141 | 6/30/2011 | 2011 | 1,540 |
| Pebble Brooke | 811 Brooke Manor Drive | $147,990 | $120 | 6/30/2011 | 2010 | 1,236 |
| Quail Valley | 4880 Quail Valley Road | $550,000 | $141 | 6/30/2011 | 2009 | 3,914 |
| Southwood | 3780 Longfellow | $321,500 | $135 | 6/30/2011 | 2011 | 2,384 |
| Hampton Creek | 2880 Hampton Meadow Drive | $149,990 | $122 | 6/29/2011 | 2009 | 1,228 |
| Villas At Pine Forest | 1245 Athens Court | $139,900 | $101 | 6/28/2011 | 2008 | 1,380 |
| Park Charleston | 1673 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 3C) | $238,300 | $124 | 6/23/2011 | 2010 | 1,920 |
| Park Charleston | 1667 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 4C) | $229,900 | $135 | 6/15/2011 | 2011 | 1,702 |
| Southwood | 3099 Dickinson Drive | $336,500 | $131 | 6/10/2011 | 2011 | 2,570 |
| Observation Pointe | 6193 Observation Circle | $250,000 | $125 | 6/8/2011 | 2011 | 2,000 |
| Meridian Ridge | 308 Meridian Ridge Court | $196,000 | $89 | 6/2/2011 | 2011 | 2,200 |
| Bull Run | 2587 Ulysses Rd | $309,900 | $146 | 5/27/2011 | 2011 | 2,124 |
| Bull Run | 2595 Halleck Lane | $276,040 | $137 | 5/27/2011 | 2011 | 2,008 |
| Southwood | 3152 Nathaniel Trace | $283,900 | $142 | 5/27/2011 | 2011 | 2,005 |
| Bull Run | 2587 Farragut Way | $252,900 | $139 | 5/25/2011 | 2011 | 1,825 |
| Park Charleston | 1679 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 2C) | $215,000 | $124 | 5/13/2011 | 2010 | 1,740 |
| Hunters Crossing | 339 Reuger Court | $283,500 | $141 | 5/11/2011 | 2011 | 2,009 |
| The Tennyson | 121 N Monroe Street Penthouse 1 | $438,000 | $196 | 5/6/2011 | 2006 | 2,237 |
| Hampton Creek | 2884 Hampton Meadow Drive | $149,000 | $121 | 5/2/2011 | 2010 | 1,228 |
| Southwood | 3594 Strolling Way | $281,297 | $155 | 4/30/2011 | 2010 | 1,809 |
| Bull Run | 2537 Ulysses Rd | $263,000 | $155 | 4/29/2011 | 2011 | 1,700 |
| Bull Run | 2509 Ulysses Rd | $269,900 | $154 | 4/25/2011 | 2010 | 1,748 |
| Sagebrook Mill | 1922 Sagebrook Drive | $201,000 | $132 | 4/25/2011 | 2011 | 1,517 |
| Four Points | 307 Ridge Road | $116,000 | $105 | 4/22/2011 | 2011 | 1,100 |
| Southwood | 2467 Goldenrod | $309,900 | $152 | 4/18/2011 | 2011 | 2,033 |
| Bull Run | 2538 Lagrange Trail | $279,900 | $141 | 4/15/2011 | 2011 | 1,990 |
| Park Charleston | 3385 Shadowmoss Dr. (Pch 16) | $250,000 | $130 | 4/15/2011 | 2011 | 1,920 |
| Southwood | 3587 Strolling Way | $349,750 | $141 | 4/13/2011 | 2010 | 2,488 |
| Southwood | 3590 Strolling Way | $288,042 | $144 | 4/8/2011 | 2010 | 2,005 |
| Southwood | 3950 Shumard Oak | $215,000 | $114 | 4/8/2011 | 2010 | 1,889 |
| Southwood | 3622 Strolling Way | $277,404 | $153 | 3/31/2011 | 2010 | 1,809 |
| Villas At Pine Forest | 1209 Athens Court | $123,000 | $110 | 3/28/2011 | 2010 | 1,114 |
| Olson Crest | 2925 Cayson Ridge | $185,000 | $117 | 3/25/2011 | 2007 | 1,575 |
| Park Charleston | 1685 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 1C) | $249,000 | $140 | 3/25/2011 | 2010 | 1,779 |
| Sleepy Hollow | 7174 Sleepy Hollow | $440,000 | $138 | 3/25/2011 | 2010 | 3,200 |
| Jordans Pass | 1052 Lacey Lane | $149,900 | $120 | 3/11/2011 | 2010 | 1,249 |
| Observation Pointe | 6173 Observation Circle | $217,000 | $123 | 3/8/2011 | 2010 | 1,758 |
| Wilson Green | 4267 Ridge Haven Road | $99,900 | $75 | 3/2/2011 | 2008 | 1,328 |
| Southwood | 3202 Dunbar Lane | $304,900 | $131 | 3/1/2011 | 2010 | 2,333 |
| Bull Run | 2549 Lagrange Trail | $370,000 | $161 | 2/28/2011 | 2011 | 2,297 |
| Pilckem Ridge | 2019 Marne Court | $775,000 | $185 | 2/28/2011 | 2011 | 4,200 |
| Tallahassee Ranch Club | 6824 Painted Post Lane | $250,000 | $102 | 2/28/2011 | 2007 | 2,452 |
| Indian Head Acres | 1317 Ostin Nene | $129,500 | $107 | 2/25/2011 | 2010 | 1,207 |
| Southwood | 3567 Strolling Way | $312,999 | $139 | 2/25/2011 | 2010 | 2,246 |
| Southwood | 3910 Shumard Oaks Boulevard | $145,000 | $93 | 2/25/2011 | 2010 | 1,551 |
| Southwood | 3154 Duxbury | $328,000 | $131 | 2/25/2011 | 2011 | 2,502 |
| Summer Lake | 1766 San Damian Road | $331,106 | $137 | 2/25/2011 | 2009 | 2,418 |
| Bull Run | 5755 Farnsworth Drive | $405,690 | $150 | 2/24/2011 | 2011 | 2,700 |
| Monday Road Subdivision | 2307 Monday Road | $210,000 | $142 | 2/16/2011 | 2011 | 1,475 |
| Southwood | 3630 Strolling Way | $269,900 | $149 | 2/15/2011 | 2010 | 1,809 |
| Paeonia Place | 179 Daffodil Cir | $169,900 | $131 | 2/4/2011 | 2010 | 1,300 |
| Bull Run | 2591 Ulysses Road | $299,900 | $145 | 2/3/2011 | 2010 | 2,074 |
| Premier Place | 3025 Thomasville Road | $411,534 | $166 | 2/3/2011 | 2010 | 2,483 |
| Villas At Pine Forest | 1127 Baton Rouge Court | $156,990 | $95 | 2/3/2011 | 2010 | 1,655 |
| Monday Road Subdivision | 2291 Monday Road | $124,800 | $98 | 2/1/2011 | 2010 | 1,276 |
| Pebble Brooke | 803 Brooke Manor Drive | $156,990 | $113 | 1/31/2011 | 2010 | 1,395 |
| Southwood | 3166 Dunbar Lane | $506,099 | $167 | 1/28/2011 | 2011 | 3,022 |
| Southwood | 3574 Strolling Way | $299,900 | $143 | 1/28/2011 | 2010 | 2,100 |
| Southwood | 3613 Mossy Creek Way | $659,000 | $169 | 1/28/2011 | 2011 | 3,900 |
| Southwood | 2421 Orange Avenue | $239,900 | $110 | 1/28/2011 | 2010 | 2,181 |
| Sagebrook Mill | 1930 Sagebrook Drive | $179,900 | $128 | 1/26/2011 | 2010 | 1,401 |
| Jordans Pass | 6264 Jordans Pass Drive | $149,900 | $120 | 1/24/2011 | 2010 | 1,249 |
| Jacksons Gap | 5612 Jacksons Gap Rd | $214,838 | $134 | 1/20/2011 | 2010 | 1,602 |
| Jacksons Gap | 5647 Jacksons Gap Rd | $213,900 | $139 | 1/14/2011 | 2010 | 1,540 |
| Stonebriar | 2335 Cleburn Lane | $275,000 | $130 | 1/13/2011 | 2010 | 2,120 |
| Ox Bottom Manor | 6321 Sinkola Drive | $330,000 | $131 | 1/11/2011 | 2007 | 2,516 |
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