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New Home Construction Expectations For 2012

If you read our Real Estate Forecast for 2012 last week, you might have noticed that it did not specifically address expectations for new home construction in Tallahassee in the coming year.

Home builders in Tallahassee have been struggling through some very tough years since the collapse of the housing market, and I see few reasons why next year should provide any kind of relief. Supply levels are still too high, though they are lower than they have been since 2008.

The first half of 2012 is going to provide critical feedback to the new home construction industry in Tallahassee. Will there be a rush of homes move from the shadow inventory to the open market and increase the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee? Or have we been overly concerned about the return of the scores of homeowners who failed to sell their homes in the past?

New Home Construction Slows In Tallahassee

Tallahassee New Home Construction

In the real estate graph above, the green areas shows the number of existing home sales each year, while the red area shows the new home construction sales in Tallahassee each year. It appears as if 2011 will be the worst year on record, though our 2011 measurements currently go through December 15. A strong year-end closing run could turn it from the worst-year ever to just "a really terrible year" for new home builders.

New Home Construction Prices In Tallahassee

One good sign for the return to a healthy new home construction industry in Tallahassee is that prices are on the rise. For many years, we were seeing new home prices fall because much of these sales were liquidation or sell-offs, as builders had over-estimated demand for the Tallahassee real estate market.

Tallahassee New Home Construction Prices

As we can see from the graph above, three out of the four quadrants of Leon County are experiencing a rise in new home prices. These areas account for 92% of the new home construction sales in Tallahassee, and that should mean that we are no longer building beyond the limited demand for new home construction in Tallahassee.

Recent New Home Construction Sales In Tallahassee

Neighborhood Address SP Price/ SQF Closing Date Year Built SQF
Hampton Creek 5610 Hampton Hill Circle $149,990 $122 12/12/2011 2011 1,228
Pebble Brooke 651 Brooke Hampton Drive $124,990 $112 12/9/2011 2010 1,114
Southwood 3610 Strolling Way $274,500 $152 12/9/2011 2011 1,809
Southwood 3143 Nathaniel Trace $304,700 $143 12/8/2011 2011 2,124
Southwood 2405 Goldenrod Way $284,900 $142 12/8/2011 2010 2,005
Woodbriar 3267 Sugar Berry Way $67,500 $51 12/8/2011 2005 1,328
Southwood 3598 Strolling Way $291,340 $161 12/2/2011 2011 1,809
Villas At Pine Forest 1131 Baton Rouge Court $149,990 $84 11/23/2011 2011 1,795
Southwood 3618 Strolling Way $249,900 $147 11/15/2011 2011 1,700
Bull Run 5621 Ringold Lane $284,900 $142 11/10/2011 2011 2,005
Park Charleston 3373 Shadowmoss Dr. (Pch14) $245,900 $128 11/2/2011 2011 1,920
Bull Run 2542 Bennitts Mill Way $313,700 $148 10/28/2011 2011 2,124
Bull Run 2580 Ulysses Rd $309,900 $146 10/21/2011 2011 2,124
Premier Place 3031 Thomasville Road $375,000 $163 10/21/2011 2010 2,297
Southwood 3586 Strolling Way $309,900 $148 10/21/2011 2011 2,100
Southwood 3562 Strolling Way $306,000 $146 10/15/2011 2011 2,100
Southwood 3762 Longfellow Road $300,000 $125 10/12/2011 2011 2,400
Park Charleston 3399 Shadowmoss Dr (Pch19) $229,550 $132 10/7/2011 2011 1,740
Bull Run 5625 Ringold Lane $289,320 $144 9/30/2011 2011 2,005
Tallahassee Highlands 2481 Pennlyn Drive $127,000 $94 9/30/2011 2011 1,350
Southwood 3206 Mossy Creek Lane $332,000 $120 9/29/2011 2011 2,767
Bull Run 2617 Manassas Way $269,900 $130 9/28/2011 2011 2,070
Hampton Creek 5616 Hampton Hill Circle $149,990 $122 9/28/2011 2011 1,228
Harwood 2101 Wakefeild $173,050 $109 9/23/2011 2011 1,583
Homestead Ridge 3413 Almanac $175,000 $116 9/23/2011 2011 1,508
Stonebriar 2323 Cleburn Lane $247,000 $112 9/23/2011 2011 2,200
Adiron Woods 7028 Sawley Lane $214,000 $93 9/7/2011 2011 2,300
Southwood 3602 Strolling Way $347,947 $147 9/2/2011 2011 2,362
Wilson Green 4259 Ridge Haven Road $98,000 $74 9/1/2011 2008 1,328
Pebble Brooke 1021 Chase Creek Circle $124,990 $112 8/31/2011 2010 1,114
Pebble Brooke 647 Brooke Hampton Drive $124,990 $112 8/31/2011 2010 1,114
Rivers Landing 4831 Sampler Dr. $161,700 $119 8/29/2011 2011 1,358
Iamonia Lodge Unrec 12182 Waterfront Drive $280,000 $175 8/27/2011 2010 1,600
Baker Place 3180 Leigh Road $465,900 $159 8/26/2011 2011 2,932
Bull Run 2586 Ulysses Rd $274,297 $152 8/26/2011 2011 1,809
Meridian Ridge 321 Meridian Ridge Court $200,000 $133 8/25/2011 2011 1,500
Rivers Landing 4413 Rivers Landing Drive $138,000 $102 8/25/2011 2011 1,358
Bull Run 2539 Bennits Mill Way $299,900 $145 8/15/2011 2011 2,074
Bull Run 2558 Manassas Way $249,900 $142 8/15/2011 2011 1,755
Summer Lake 2807 Summer Meadow Dr. $179,900 $128 8/12/2011 2011 1,401
Golden Eagle Plantation 2887 Royal Isle $378,000 $144 8/9/2011 2011 2,623
Killearn Lakes 3414 Treaty Oak $214,000 $126 8/8/2011 2011 1,701
Southwood 3626 Strolling Way $311,211 $148 8/8/2011 2010 2,100
Bull Run 2560 Carthage Lane $305,000 $140 7/29/2011 2011 2,184
Meridian Ridge 324 Meridian Ridge Court $193,200 $129 7/29/2011 2011 1,500
Olson Crest 3235 Grant Creek Trail (2-B) $180,000 $114 7/29/2011 2009 1,576
Southwood 3190 Dunbar Lane $537,000 $157 7/29/2011 2011 3,426
Tyson Green Condominiums 3697 Tyson Green Way $99,000 $79 7/28/2011 2008 1,260
Bull Run 2605 Farragut Way $242,900 $145 7/27/2011 2011 1,670
Bull Run 5641 Ringold Lane $304,900 $147 7/22/2011 2011 2,074
Southwood 3606 Strolling Way $269,900 $149 7/22/2011 2011 1,809
Southwood 3571 Strolling Way $274,900 $152 7/21/2011 2011 1,809
Woodbriar 3345 Sawtooth Dr $64,000 $48 7/20/2011 2005 1,328
Bull Run 2595 Farragut Way $269,900 $130 7/15/2011 2011 2,070
Bull Run 5853 Appomattox Way $266,000 $129 7/15/2011 2008 2,070
Villas At Pine Forest 1326 Tuscaloosa Trace $123,990 $111 7/15/2011 2011 1,114
Observation Pointe 6181 Observation Cir $219,000 $134 7/8/2011 2011 1,635
Observation Pointe 6121 Observation Circle $201,900 $133 7/8/2011 2010 1,520
Jacksons Gap 5655 Jacksons Gap $206,000 $130 7/7/2011 2011 1,581
Observation Pointe 6186 Observation Circle $217,500 $141 6/30/2011 2011 1,540
Pebble Brooke 811 Brooke Manor Drive $147,990 $120 6/30/2011 2010 1,236
Quail Valley 4880 Quail Valley Road $550,000 $141 6/30/2011 2009 3,914
Southwood 3780 Longfellow $321,500 $135 6/30/2011 2011 2,384
Hampton Creek 2880 Hampton Meadow Drive $149,990 $122 6/29/2011 2009 1,228
Villas At Pine Forest 1245 Athens Court $139,900 $101 6/28/2011 2008 1,380
Park Charleston 1673 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 3C) $238,300 $124 6/23/2011 2010 1,920
Park Charleston 1667 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 4C) $229,900 $135 6/15/2011 2011 1,702
Southwood 3099 Dickinson Drive $336,500 $131 6/10/2011 2011 2,570
Observation Pointe 6193 Observation Circle $250,000 $125 6/8/2011 2011 2,000
Meridian Ridge 308 Meridian Ridge Court $196,000 $89 6/2/2011 2011 2,200
Bull Run 2587 Ulysses Rd $309,900 $146 5/27/2011 2011 2,124
Bull Run 2595 Halleck Lane $276,040 $137 5/27/2011 2011 2,008
Southwood 3152 Nathaniel Trace $283,900 $142 5/27/2011 2011 2,005
Bull Run 2587 Farragut Way $252,900 $139 5/25/2011 2011 1,825
Park Charleston 1679 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 2C) $215,000 $124 5/13/2011 2010 1,740
Hunters Crossing 339 Reuger Court $283,500 $141 5/11/2011 2011 2,009
The Tennyson 121 N Monroe Street Penthouse 1 $438,000 $196 5/6/2011 2006 2,237
Hampton Creek 2884 Hampton Meadow Drive $149,000 $121 5/2/2011 2010 1,228
Southwood 3594 Strolling Way $281,297 $155 4/30/2011 2010 1,809
Bull Run 2537 Ulysses Rd $263,000 $155 4/29/2011 2011 1,700
Bull Run 2509 Ulysses Rd $269,900 $154 4/25/2011 2010 1,748
Sagebrook Mill 1922 Sagebrook Drive $201,000 $132 4/25/2011 2011 1,517
Four Points 307 Ridge Road $116,000 $105 4/22/2011 2011 1,100
Southwood 2467 Goldenrod $309,900 $152 4/18/2011 2011 2,033
Bull Run 2538 Lagrange Trail $279,900 $141 4/15/2011 2011 1,990
Park Charleston 3385 Shadowmoss Dr. (Pch 16) $250,000 $130 4/15/2011 2011 1,920
Southwood 3587 Strolling Way $349,750 $141 4/13/2011 2010 2,488
Southwood 3590 Strolling Way $288,042 $144 4/8/2011 2010 2,005
Southwood 3950 Shumard Oak $215,000 $114 4/8/2011 2010 1,889
Southwood 3622 Strolling Way $277,404 $153 3/31/2011 2010 1,809
Villas At Pine Forest 1209 Athens Court $123,000 $110 3/28/2011 2010 1,114
Olson Crest 2925 Cayson Ridge $185,000 $117 3/25/2011 2007 1,575
Park Charleston 1685 Harbor Club Dr. (Pc 1C) $249,000 $140 3/25/2011 2010 1,779
Sleepy Hollow 7174 Sleepy Hollow $440,000 $138 3/25/2011 2010 3,200
Jordans Pass 1052 Lacey Lane $149,900 $120 3/11/2011 2010 1,249
Observation Pointe 6173 Observation Circle $217,000 $123 3/8/2011 2010 1,758
Wilson Green 4267 Ridge Haven Road $99,900 $75 3/2/2011 2008 1,328
Southwood 3202 Dunbar Lane $304,900 $131 3/1/2011 2010 2,333
Bull Run 2549 Lagrange Trail $370,000 $161 2/28/2011 2011 2,297
Pilckem Ridge 2019 Marne Court $775,000 $185 2/28/2011 2011 4,200
Tallahassee Ranch Club 6824 Painted Post Lane $250,000 $102 2/28/2011 2007 2,452
Indian Head Acres 1317 Ostin Nene $129,500 $107 2/25/2011 2010 1,207
Southwood 3567 Strolling Way $312,999 $139 2/25/2011 2010 2,246
Southwood 3910 Shumard Oaks Boulevard $145,000 $93 2/25/2011 2010 1,551
Southwood 3154 Duxbury $328,000 $131 2/25/2011 2011 2,502
Summer Lake 1766 San Damian Road $331,106 $137 2/25/2011 2009 2,418
Bull Run 5755 Farnsworth Drive $405,690 $150 2/24/2011 2011 2,700
Monday Road Subdivision 2307 Monday Road $210,000 $142 2/16/2011 2011 1,475
Southwood 3630 Strolling Way $269,900 $149 2/15/2011 2010 1,809
Paeonia Place 179 Daffodil Cir $169,900 $131 2/4/2011 2010 1,300
Bull Run 2591 Ulysses Road $299,900 $145 2/3/2011 2010 2,074
Premier Place 3025 Thomasville Road $411,534 $166 2/3/2011 2010 2,483
Villas At Pine Forest 1127 Baton Rouge Court $156,990 $95 2/3/2011 2010 1,655
Monday Road Subdivision 2291 Monday Road $124,800 $98 2/1/2011 2010 1,276
Pebble Brooke 803 Brooke Manor Drive $156,990 $113 1/31/2011 2010 1,395
Southwood 3166 Dunbar Lane $506,099 $167 1/28/2011 2011 3,022
Southwood 3574 Strolling Way $299,900 $143 1/28/2011 2010 2,100
Southwood 3613 Mossy Creek Way $659,000 $169 1/28/2011 2011 3,900
Southwood 2421 Orange Avenue $239,900 $110 1/28/2011 2010 2,181
Sagebrook Mill 1930 Sagebrook Drive $179,900 $128 1/26/2011 2010 1,401
Jordans Pass 6264 Jordans Pass Drive $149,900 $120 1/24/2011 2010 1,249
Jacksons Gap 5612 Jacksons Gap Rd $214,838 $134 1/20/2011 2010 1,602
Jacksons Gap 5647 Jacksons Gap Rd $213,900 $139 1/14/2011 2010 1,540
Stonebriar 2335 Cleburn Lane $275,000 $130 1/13/2011 2010 2,120
Ox Bottom Manor 6321 Sinkola Drive $330,000 $131 1/11/2011 2007 2,516

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