Weekly Special | August 4, 2025

Consecutive Year-Over-Year Home Sales Gains

The mortgage lock-in-effect has slowed housing markets nationwide, but we’re starting to see its hold weaken as life events have people moving again.

The graph aboe removes seasonality by comparing each month’s sales with the same month the prior year. After 12 declines in 13 straight months, consecutive gains were recorded in June and July.

Additionally, had July ended on Friday instead of Thursday, Leon County home sales would be exactly 1 sale short of where we were through July 2024.

Is this the turning point? Will we see the market continue to strengthen? Those are some heady questions constrained by serious external conditions.

Keep An Eye On The Economy When people have jobs, they are able to pay their mortgages. When the economy surges, they get raises and buy larger homes. But when the economy moves toward a recession, then all bets are off.

I have produced several “housing crash” videos recently, focusing on what it would take to bring us to 2008 conditions. If you would like to see my recent AI Housing Forecast, you’ll gain a good understanding of how strong homeowners are right now.

Right now, the US sits near an all-time high in home equity, and borrowers hold near all-time-high credit scores (meaning they have a strong tendency to pay their bills on time).

The jobs report that came out last Friday had far worse results than the market expected, causing mortgage interest rates to fall by .12%, the biggest one-day dip since early December. Will they continue lower? Or bounce back up? We’ll find out next week!

The original one-page Weekly Special PDF is still available.