Home Sales Continue Slide In Tallahassee MLS
Every month we update our Tallahassee MLS report which shows the supply and demand dynamics of the entire area tracked by the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS). The areas include Leon County, Jefferson County, Wakulla County, Gadsden County, Franklin County and a few other random sales from around the State of Florida.
While the Tallahassee MLS does not include all of the sales in the Tallahassee real estate market, it usually represents about 2/3rds of the sales in our area. This month, our report shows that home sales are down 31% in March 2009 versus the home sales of March 2008.
March Sees Continued Decline In Tallahassee Area Home Sales
In the real estate graph below, area listings are represented by the red line, area home sales are represented by the green line, and relative home supply (months of supply of homes based upon current sales trends) are shown in purple.
The supply of homes has dropped, but relative supply has surpassed 21 months of supply. This is very discouraging as the national trend is going the other way. As I have written here before, I believe this is due to a "lag effect" where Tallahassee typically follows the national trend, just on a schedule that seems to be six to nine months behind everybody else.
Low Home Buyer Activity In Tallahassee
Having studied the supply and demand data for several years, I have been watching supply levels and warning of the glut for years. But as we have been seeing supply levels fall for quite some time, I wondered what our current supply would look like compared to the demand of years gone by.
Using data from Leon County (previous real estate graph was for all counties) which currently has 14.3 months of supply, we see that our current supply levels would have created a sellers' market in 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and even 2007!
The red area represents months of supply for past periods based upon current home supply levels in Tallahassee. The green line is the historical sales. What I believe this real estate graph is showing is that we are currently suffering more from diminished buyer activity than we are from our over-supply. The stars on the graph show that our current supply would be fine (even low) for past demand, and that when we see the return of demand for homes in Tallahassee, the months of supply will fall rapidly.
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