When we look at the long-term daily home sales trend in Tallahassee, we see what appears to be the bottom of the market in our rear view mirror! Based upon current data, the bottom of the market in terms of unit sales was back on August 17, 2009. Hopefully we won't ever return back to that level.
We look to the “contracts pending” (meaning homes under contract) report in the Tallahassee MLS to find out what the near-term trend of home sales will be. The following graph is a daily measure of the 365 trend of new pending contracts. What this graph shows is that after 5 months of improvement, we seem to be hitting a plateau.
The following real estate graph shows the change in buyer activity each day. Each point on the graph represents the daily average number of homes sold in Tallahassee for the past 365 days. This is the same information from the first graph, but it is "zoomed in" so that we can spot shorter trends.
Tallahassee Housing Inventory: 30 Day Trend Report
We are seeing homes leave the market faster than new ones are being brought in, though not just through sales. Many homes are failing to sell, and then not being relisted. The shadow inventory continues to grow. The red area represents homes coming on the market (new listings & re-listed homes), the green area represents those homes leaving the market (sold, expired, canceled and withdrawn listings), while the yellow area shows the total change (above the line means that inventory is growing, below the line means that inventory is shrinking).
Home Sales Failure Rate
Another interesting trend to watch is the comparison of home failures (homes that failed to sell during their listing period in the Tallahassee MLS) versus homes that were listed for sale over the past year. This trend gives us a feel for how hard it is right now to sell a home in Tallahassee. Right now, the failure rate is at 79%.
The failures is a measure of the number of homes that failed to sell over the past year compared to the number of homes that were newly listed for sale over the same period of time. Based upon the current trend, we have seen failures explode as high as 85%., though the current trend seems to be getting better. This means that we are consuming inventory, but more through failures than through sales. We are now able to observe these trends on a 1-year basis , allowing the seasonal distortion to be removed (meaning a whole year’s data means that there are no spikes due to time of the year changes).
One Year Trend In Tallahassee Housing Market Inventories
This real estate graph records four very important trends, all in “one picture”. What we are seeing here is a slow decline in the number of homes listed each day (down by nearly 5 homes per day, on average, since mid December 2008). Simultaneously, we’re seeing nearly a falling number of failures per day (from 15 to 12), but finally an increase in the sales and pendings. Overall, more inventory is leaving the market than is coming on the market.
Tallahassee Home Sellers Find Difficulty Selling Their Homes
The next real estate graph is what we refer to as the “Sales Success Graph.” We track the number of homes that sell and compare it to the number of new homes listed during the same period of time. The short-term has improved greatly over the past three months, with a sales success level starting to rebound from a depth of 20% to roughly 63%.
We observe the long-term trend crossing over the 44% mark, which is right at the level it was just 1 year ago. We hope to continue to see this rise, but we are concerned with the mounting inventory of homes in the “Shadow Inventory” that the supply side is going to grow again next year.
While the specific value is not necessarily reflective of the true rate of success Tallahassee home sellers
are finding, the direction of the trend is a fair assessment of whether or not the home sellers are finding more or less success as the market continues forward. The blue field is the 1 Year Trend, meaning that no seasonality exists in its measurement. We can accurately say that sellers are having a harder time selling their home today than they were 1 year ago. This line is currently trending at 44%, meaning over the past year, only 44% of the homes listed actually sold in the Tallahassee real estate market
Other Current Tallahassee Real Estate Reports
- Residential Sales Trends
- Average Home Prices
- Single Family Detached Home Prices
- Average Real Estate Prices
- Tallahassee Lot Sales
- Year Over Year Home Sales
- Home Sales Activity Report
- New Home Construction Report
- New Home Construction Trends
- Condo And Townhouse Sales Report
- New Condo and Townhouse Construction Report
- YTD SFD Home Sales
- YTD Home Sales By Type
- Tallahassee MLS Supply and Demand (All Counties)