Back to Blog Posts

Tallahassee Housing Market Q4 2025: Is a Price Run Coming?

Posted by
Share
Share
Share
Share

In Tallahassee real estate, it’s always about supply and demand. But in 2025, the story is how mortgage rates are reshaping demand, and in turn, how supply and demand are balancing out in surprising ways.

We’ve now lived with high rates long enough that demand has cooled to match today’s limited supply. That’s why the Tallahassee housing market doesn’t feel like it’s collapsing, even though values are slipping. The real risk ahead? If rates drop suddenly, demand could roar back while supply stays stuck — and that’s the recipe for another price run.

Mortgage Rates and Their Impact on Demand

Mortgage rates remain the key force in the Tallahassee real estate market. The lock-in effect has kept many homeowners from listing their properties, while higher rates have reduced the pool of active buyers. That combination has created a strange balance, where low supply feels sufficient to meet low demand.

Graph shows the relationship between mortgage interest rates and the number of homes sold

The chart above illustrates the close relationship between mortgage rates and pending home sales contracts. When rates fall, contracts rise. When rates climb, contracts slow. This pattern has been consistent for two decades and was especially clear during the pandemic, when record-low rates pushed demand to historic highs, followed by a sharp slowdown once rates rose above 7 percent.

Where is the Tallahassee market headed?

New articles as they publish, plus the Monday market report. Free, by email.

Prices vs Values: What Sellers Are Really Getting

Many people confuse average home prices with average home values, but they measure different things. Prices represent what buyers are spending overall, while values show what sellers are receiving per square foot of existing homes. Prices can be distorted by the types of homes selling, but values are a clearer picture of returns.

20 years of appreciation in the Tallahassee real estate market graphed

According to the Tallahassee Board of Realtors, supplemented with Metro Market Trends, home values are down 2 percent per square foot compared to last year. That means sellers are receiving less for each square foot, even as some higher-priced homes continue to close. This is a sign of softening, not collapse.

Market Snapshot Entering Q4 2025

Here is where the Tallahassee housing market stands today:

  • Median home value: $288,424 (Zillow)

  • Year-over-year change: –1.2 percent

  • Value per square foot: –2.0 percent (TBR + Metro Market Trends)

  • Homes for sale in Leon County: 1,225

  • Under contract: 331

  • Actively available: ~894

The numbers point to a market that is cooler but not distressed. Well-priced homes are still moving, while overpriced listings sit longer.

Rental Market Stability

Tallahassee’s rental market provides an anchor of affordability and stability. The average rent is about $1,500 per month, nearly 27 percent lower than the national average. This keeps the city attractive to renters and gives homeowners the option of leasing their homes if selling is not appealing.

Seasonal Dynamics in Q4

The fourth quarter usually brings a slowdown as families focus on school and holidays. That pattern will likely hold, but two factors could shake things up. A dip in rates could spark a late-year bump in demand, and motivated sellers, such as builders or relocating families, may offer stronger incentives to close deals before year-end.

Hire a Vet

Speak To An Expert!

Elevate your confidence by trusting Joe and his team led by US armed forces Veterans. Unmatched dedication, expertise, and professionalism drive their success, as their thousands of 5-star reviews confirm. 

Their proven track record showcases precise navigation of the market. Choosing Joe means gaining access to extensive knowledge and networks and prioritizing YOUR unique needs. Experience the power of dedicated commitment in real estate. Trust Joe and his team of military Veterans to be your partners in achieving your dreams.

Risks for Buyers and Sellers

The Tallahassee housing market still carries risk. A rise in mortgage rates could further lower demand. Inventory could climb without enough buyers to absorb it, which would add pressure on values. Buyer fatigue from affordability challenges could also stall momentum further.

Opportunities in the Market

Despite the risks, opportunities exist. Buyers have more negotiating power than they did two years ago. Sellers who price homes realistically can still find active buyers. And if rates fall, demand could return quickly, stabilizing values or even causing them to soar higher again.

Conclusion: Balanced but Fragile

The Tallahassee housing market appears balanced because both supply and demand are relatively stable. Rates directly influence demand, but they have little effect on supply, which is locked in by the low mortgages secured in 2021. If rates fall quickly, demand will surge while supply remains constant, and that imbalance could trigger another price surge.

For buyers and sellers in Q4 2025, the takeaway is clear. This is a market to watch closely. Buyers should pay attention to mortgage rate shifts, and sellers should stay realistic about pricing. Balance can change quickly, and those who act with good timing will come out ahead.

Recent Home Sales In Tallahassee

Recent Tallahassee Home Sales

AddressPricePrice / SQFClosing DateYear BuiltSQFSale Type
4034 Delvin Dr$379,000$2182026-10-0919731,740Resale
998 Rosebay Court$950,000$2612026-10-0919863,633Resale
2128 Wembley Way$295,000$2122026-10-0919801,391Resale
3917 Ardmore Ln$600,000$2522026-10-0920262,378New
487 Grand Oaks Rd$405,000$2252026-10-0920231,804New
2316 Cobb Dr$615,000$1982026-10-0920003,104Resale
6429 Jet Pilot Trl$260,200$1512026-10-0919861,718Resale
8605 Coach Rd$560,000$1932026-10-0919812,908Resale
300 S Duval St$217,000$3092026-10-092009703Resale
9526 Old Woodville Rd$180,000$1582026-10-0919671,140Resale
2705 Roberts Ave$115,000$932026-10-0920021,232Resale
1306 Leewood Dr$467,500$2592026-10-0819641,807Resale
5431 Water Valley Ct$255,000$2372026-10-0819921,076Resale
3399 Mizell St$290,000$2232026-10-0720261,301New
1823 Tyndall Dr$182,500$1952026-10-071959934Resale
3111 Brockton Way$315,000$2532026-10-0619831,246Resale
1574 Goodwood Dr$310,000$1852026-10-0619761,679Resale
9570 Starhawk Dr$550,000$1892026-10-0620012,907Resale
4186 Ridge Haven Rd$208,000$1622026-10-0620061,286Resale
3113 Shannon Lakes N$455,000$2052026-10-0519862,222Resale
4349 Camden Rd$300,000$1442026-10-0519842,086Resale
2463 Tippecanoe Rdg$345,000$2192026-10-0520181,574Resale
1575 Paul Russell Rd Apt 5010$220,000$1292026-10-0520051,705Resale
844 Brookwood Dr$407,500$2372026-10-0219581,716Resale
415 Williams St Apt B$261,000$1832026-10-0219841,428Resale
6704 Johnstown Loop$340,000$1802026-10-0219841,888Resale
6708 Chant Trl$335,000$2422026-10-0219791,386Resale
5161 Holly Fern Trce$455,000$2422026-10-0220161,879Resale
10564 Lake Iamonia Dr$504,000$2382026-10-0219932,121Resale
756 Rhoden Cove Rd$596,000$1952026-10-0219853,051Resale
2788 Summer Meadow Dr$280,000$1462026-10-0220061,922Resale
215 W College Ave Apt 903$300,000$2702026-10-0220061,112Resale
7512 Talley Ann Dr$240,000$2182026-10-0219811,103Resale
6051 Flintlock Loop$392,500$2322026-10-0219901,692Resale
2933 Tipperary Ct$395,000$2062026-10-0119711,921Resale
2544 Centerville Ct$222,000$1782026-10-0120001,244Resale
1489 Vieux Carre Dr$696,000$2882026-10-0120022,415Resale
2938 Abbotsford Way$500,000$1812026-10-0119782,757Resale
540 Bienville Pl$687,900$2382026-10-0120262,890New
241 Old Dirt Rd$399,000$1682026-10-0119712,368Resale
1653 Copperfield Cir$439,000$2142026-10-0119922,054Resale
5050 Velda Dairy Rd$797,000$2592026-10-0119793,072Resale
2801 Chancellorsville Dr Unit 934$131,000$1202026-10-0120041,096Resale
5188 Holly Fern Trce$599,500$2452026-10-0120172,447Resale
6311 Bird Dog Pt$1,100,000$3492026-10-0120143,151Resale
3400 Old Bainbridge Rd Apt 402$155,000$1132026-10-0120041,368Resale
300 S Duval St$310,000$2612026-10-0120091,186New
1334 Kings Dr$164,000$1862026-10-011983882Resale
415 Saint Francis St Apt 138$307,000$3412026-10-012007900Resale
2348 Ryan Pl$215,000$1812026-09-3019831,188Resale
3624 Craigs House Ct$408,000$2272026-09-3019911,794Resale
2005 N Meridian Rd Apt F$178,500$1672026-09-3019841,067Resale
2581 Panther Creek Rd Unit B$180,000$2032026-09-301981885Resale
3526 Sedona Loop$225,000$2402026-09-301987939Resale
4106 Beauregard Way$460,000$2092026-09-3020262,200New
543 Bienville Pl$369,100$2402026-09-3020261,535New
184 Bienville Pl$565,000$2202026-09-3020242,572Resale
3029 Bidhurst Ct$400,000$2242026-09-3020101,782Resale
201 Myddelton Trce$430,000$2432026-09-3020021,766Resale
2325 Haverhill Rd$515,000$1892026-09-3019842,729Resale
8364 Bull Headley Rd$451,600$2512026-09-3020251,802New
6375 Thomasville Rd$854,000$1892026-09-3019814,529Resale
6842 Donerail Trl$295,000$2352026-09-3019811,253Resale
5752 Cypress Cir$208,000$1882026-09-3019791,104Resale
4309 Calcutta Ct$255,000$1482026-09-3019791,722Resale
4074 Riverwood Rd$362,000$1752026-09-3019872,070Resale
3214 Springdale Dr$315,000$1842026-09-3020001,712Resale
2981 Byington Cir$164,000$1312026-09-3019911,255Resale
2109 Pecan Ln Apt B$145,000$1312026-09-3019811,104Resale
2466 Tippecanoe Rdg$355,000$2102026-09-3020231,690Resale
1814 Lilac Dr$135,000$1322026-09-3019821,024Resale
2178 Timberwood Cir S$170,000$1442026-09-3019931,184Resale
2926 Oakwood Dr$95,000$992026-09-301972957Resale
1917 Corvallis Ave$160,000$1362026-09-3020081,177Resale
1134 Willow Crossing Dr$379,000$2402026-09-3020191,580Resale
1111 Brafforton Dr$195,000$1932026-09-3019911,008Resale
2390 Quazar Cir$200,000$1712026-09-3020061,173Resale
524 Lynndale St$61,500$722026-09-301955850Resale
2545 Lantana Ln$525,000$2462026-09-3020162,137Resale
220 Young St$120,000$1252026-09-301950958Resale
5627 Fletcher Oaks Dr$144,200$852026-09-2920221,702Resale
528 E Pensacola St$188,000$2712026-09-291948695Resale
206 Belmont Rd$195,000$1482026-09-2919741,314Resale
227 Nabb Rd$375,000$1812026-09-2920052,076Resale
1816 Folkstone Rd$369,900$2332026-09-2920191,587Resale
8388 Bull Headley Rd$441,600$2452026-09-2920261,802New
3257 Lord Murphy Trl$270,000$1492026-09-2919891,815Resale
3735 Ravine Dr$320,000$2132026-09-2919931,502Resale
2403 Hartsfield Rd Apt 607$130,000$1072026-09-2920041,216Resale
5540 Green Meadows Ct$225,000$1952026-09-2920021,156Resale
1125 Azalea Dr$415,000$2072026-09-2919542,008Resale
1529 Lake Ave$119,900$1572026-09-291984765Resale
603 Famcee Ave$270,000$1962026-09-2919561,376Resale
18184 Blountstown Hwy$200,000$1512026-09-2919281,324Resale
4019 Kilmartin Dr$435,000$2042026-09-2819872,132Resale
3026 Bell Grove Dr$425,000$1952026-09-2819862,174Resale
465 Olivia Rose Ave$450,000$2842026-09-2820221,586Resale
8503 Congressional Dr$1,700,000$2442026-09-2820016,960Resale
5600 Rustic Dr$195,500$1742026-09-2819771,125Resale
2618 Faversham Dr$206,500$1452026-09-2819821,420Resale

Thousands of Joe Manausa Team customers have left reviews on Google, Facebook, and Zillow. Read the Tallahassee real estate agent reviews.

5.0 on Google from 909 reviews

Ready to talk to a local expert?

Moving to, within, or from Tallahassee, a Joe Manausa Team member gives you the local answers a smooth transaction needs.

Send Us A Note Call (850) 366-8917

Related Posts