Monthly Housing Report September 2021

Time for my monthly real estate market update September 2021August is over, September is underway, meaning that 2/3rds of the year is now history. So how are home sales in Tallahassee?

Follow along as I walk you through current housing market conditions, mortgage interest rates, and home sales trends in 2021 when compared to previous years, each through August. Finally, my conclusion will give you an idea of where the market is heading as we begin moving towards 2022, and which factors will decide its future.

Let's start the report with a quick look at the current listings of homes for sale in Tallahassee. They are sorted from highest to lowest price. Take a look as the asking prices decline, the percentage of homes under contract goes through the roof.

Homes For Sale In Tallahassee Today

The following list of homes is dynamically created to show only what's available in Tallahassee right now. It's updated every 15 minutes, so you can be assured that it's the best information available on Tallahassee real estate listings.

I include these listings in my monthly report so that our readers can observe the record-high rate of listings already under contract with buyers.

810 Properties
Page 1 of 68

Year-Over-Year Home Sales Continue With Gains

The first graph in today's report shows how each month's sales compared with the same month the year prior. We refer to this as year-over-year home sales.

Year Over Year Home Sales Report Tallahassee

A year-over-year home sales comparison provides insight into the market changes by removing the seasonal impact at any given time of the year.

For example, we only compare September to September or December to December, thus the seasonal changes throughout the year are not a factor.

Even a cursory glance at this graph tells you that this market is hot. Year-over-year home sales rose 19% in August and we've now seen twelve straight months of gains (meaning every single month over the past year was better than its corresponding month the year prior).

Year To Date Home Sales

This next graph shows the number of homes sold during the first eight months in each of the past 20 years.

Year To Date Home Sales Report Tallahassee

Strong home sales have led 2021 to post the third-best year ever (through August), trailing only 2005 and 2006 when speculative buyers caused the market to explode.

I can tell you from the street that today's demand, while strong, is nothing like what we saw in 2005 and 2006. I do not see nearly the number of people buying to flip, rather it is those that plan on using the home as a residency that are the primary drivers in this market.

Mortgage Interest Rates Remain Near Low

The next graph in today's reports plots more than 50 years' worth of average monthly mortgage interest rates, and the news is nothing but good for both buyers and sellers.

Mortgage Interest Rates Graph September 2021

One has to wonder just how long these low mortgage interest rates will last. The blue-dashed line shows that the general decline of rates goes back forty years, and you have to wonder when rates will head into a long-term trend of generally rising mortgage interest rates.

Make no mistake about it. We are in a mortgage-interest-rate driven market right now. People understand that rates today are likely to be lower now than they will ever see for the rest of their lives, so they are buying homes to lock in the deal of a lifetime.

Status Of Current Home Listings

This next graph shows a breakdown of the current home listings today. Homes for sale that are not yet under contract with buyers are plotted in red, while homes for sale that ARE under contract with buyers are plotted in blue. The green line reports the percentage of homes listed that are under contract, while the dash-green line shows the one-year trend of this under-contract percentage.

Status Of Current Home Listings September 2021

Roughly 3 of every 5 homes listed for sale right now are already under contract with buyers. The green line in the graph above shows that 59% of the current listings are already under contract, and the one-year trend of the under-contract percentage is at an all-time high of more than 56%.

The reason that we plot the one-year trend of the average (dashed-green line) is to ensure we understand the true direction of the inventory status changes. For example, the solid-green line has been declining for the past three months, so you might think we’re seeing the market shift to a less-frenzied state.

In fact, I recently read an article where somebody claimed that to be the case in the US market. But people like that fail to understand the seasonal impact on both listings and sales in the market. Take a look at the dashed-green line that has been rising. Here's what this reveals:

In most years, we see the number of fresh new listings rise faster than demand during the months of June, July, and August. This normal seasonal increase in supply has brought the under-contract percentage down for the past three months, but the current percentage is higher than it was at this time last year. So the declines that we are seeing are seasonal, the market is actually moving further into a scarcity of supply.

To better understand what this means exactly for today's buyers, let's compare today's market with what buyers were seeing at the beginning of this graph in 2011.

As I produce this report, there are 1,232 homes for sale in Leon County, but only 534 of them are really available as buyers have the other 698 already under contract with buyers.

So a buyer today has just 534 homes available to purchase. At this time in 2011, there were nearly 1,800 homes available, and there were far fewer buyers looking at them. The competition for the few homes is so high today, buyers don't have time to think, they must react fast when a new home hits the market.

This means today's buyers have to be prepared well ahead of time. If you go looking at houses before you get your finances in order, expect to be heartbroken. You will lose out on the home you love, only to find homes more expensive once you get your affairs together.

Smart sellers are taking cash offers (or offers with limited financing contingencies), so forget about getting your dream home with a contract that asks the sellers to wait for you to find financing. Again, get your loan documents completed before looking at homes, it's the only way to entice a seller to take your offer.

I strongly encourage all buyers to meet with a buyer's agent to put together a complete acquisition plan so that when the right home is found, you have a fair opportunity to get it. Remember, other buyers will be bidding on the home too, so you have to appear strong so that the seller will consider your offer.

Recent Housing Market Reports

Top 10 Tallahassee Neighborhoods
If you want to know where homebuyers chose to live in 2021, then this video was produced specifically for you. Follow along as I share the top-ten selling communities in Tallahassee in 2021, with insight on what it costs to live in each neighborhood as well as the number of homes that sold.
Top 10 Neighborhoods to Live in Tallahassee for Families
Whether you're a young family just starting out or an established one looking for a place to raise your children, you will find Tallahassee a welcoming and family-friendly environment that's sure to meet your needs.
Wealth Gap Widens Luxury Home Market Booms Unprecedentedly
This luxury home market report shows that high-end homes are selling better than ever. 7 essential graphs that tell the story of the luxury home market.
Top 10 Tallahassee New Construction Neighborhoods
Living In Tallahassee. The top-ten selling builder communities in Tallahassee in 2022, with insight on what it costs to live in each neighborhood as well as the number of homes that sold.
Top 10 Patio Home Neighborhoods In Tallahassee
Real Estate: Patio homes are growing in popularity in Tallahassee as much of the new construction sold in tract housing neighborhoods are on lots much smaller than homes built before 2000.
How Bad Is It? SHOCKING Building Permits Report!
The lack of home affordability has become a widely discussed issue in the media - the shortfall in new single-family home permits and multi-family property permits and construction exacerbates the current housing crisis.
Existing Homes Update - Tallahassee Real Estate
Just as you find in most local US housing markets, the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee remains far too few, measuring below 900 properties and just above 500 when you remove those already under contract with buyers.
Are Wages Keeping Up With Rising Home Prices
Home prices are rising. Mortgage interest rates are rising. Are people earning enough money to buy homes today, or is the home affordability crisis getting worse?
Economic Outlook For The Housing Market
Joe Manausa gives an update on the economic outlook for Tallahassee and the US housing market. Includes housing market forecast, housing market activity, and new construction analysis, and reveals how Tallahassee compares with the overall US housing market.
Building Permits Reveal Major Housing Crisis
How do we know there is a major housing crisis brewing? Look no further than building permits! This video examines building permits in detail, as the issue of home affordability is going to become one of the most prominent topics for many years in the national media.
6 Housing Market Rumors Debunked (1 Confirmed)
7 different housing market rumors are perpetuated as “FACT” in various forms of "hype." Discussion of this "housing market news" has been ongoing for years, so today, I want to put them all to rest.
Tallahassee Real Estate Report March 2022
The pace of this video moves fast, and I cover more than ten key real estate trends, so you might want to go back to any graph that you want to spend more time on.
Home Ownership Is Radically Different For Millennials
This is a simple millennial housing case study that will clearly show that the millennials will face a housing market like no other generation going back to post-World War II.
Are We Overbuilding Again?
I've been asked recently for my opinion on the number of homes being built in the US. Specifically, people are wondering if the ghost of 2006 has come back to bring more homes to the market than what can be consumed?
How Soaring Home Prices Are Impacting The Housing Market
Report includes three graphs that show just how far home prices have risen as we move towards conditions where home affordability might become the greatest challenge the housing market has EVER embraced.

Annual Real Estate Appreciation

For the first ten or so years of my career, we saw real estate appreciation average a little more than 3% each year. But the craziness of the housing market in the early 2000s has created chaos ever since and has lead to a market appreciation that is soaring today.

The best way to measure real estate appreciation across the market is to measure the change in the median existing home value each year. We simply record the price per square foot of each home sold, sort them by this measurement, and then choose the one in the middle for each year.

Annual Real Estate Appreciation Tallahassee Florida

The graph above plots the change in the median home value each year. Blue bars show growth, red bars show declines.

The graph shows clearly that the rampant appreciation that began last year has continued. In an earlier market report, I had forecast double-digit appreciation for 2021. Through 2/3rds of the year, appreciation is more than 9.7% (an annualized rate of nearly 15%).

It wouldn't take too many years at this appreciation rate to render the Tallahassee housing market "unaffordable," creating a situation where only the wealthiest among us could afford to buy a home. Needless to say, this is not good! If you want to know more about home affordability, I recommend you read this article that I produced last month.

Median Home Price

Having seen that the current market appreciation rate shows the median existing-home value has risen nearly 10% thus far in 2021, let's explore what that has done to the median home price.

Median Home Price Tallahassee Florida September 2021

This graph shows the median home price each year (the median is not the average, rather it is the price of the home in the middle when all homes are lined up according to each sales price). 

This graph shows the rapid rise in home prices. The median home price for existing homes is $226,950, for new homes the median has shot up to $323,400, and overall, the median home price in Tallahassee is $240,000. Considering our median home price was below $200,000 as recently as 2018, it's not hard to see how home prices are getting out of control.

Fortunately for buyers, interest rates remain low enough that the monthly payment to carry the median home is better today than what it has been in all but 9 of the past thirty years! But this is a short-term opportunity (unless you believe interest rates will move lower to continue covering the rising cost of homes).

Inventory Moves Fast In Today's Housing Market

Up to this point, we've seen that the supply of homes for sale is far too low and the competition for available listings is fierce among buyers. Our next graph serves to demonstrate how this dynamic disrupts the home buying experience.

The graph shows the percentage of homes sold each month. During normal market conditions, roughly 1/6th of the homes sell each month (see the red shaded field in the middle of the graph). But look to the right side of the graph, today's market is now more than doubling that amount.

Percentage Of Homes For Sale Under Contract September 2021

A red dot is plotted each month to show the percentage of the inventory that sold. If there were no seasonality in real estate, we would expect to see about 1/6th of the homes sell each month (16.7%).

As seasonality is real, we actually expect to see roughly 4 months above normal, 4 months near normal, and four months below normal during a typical year. This graph makes it clear, this is not a typical year!

When the market was coming out of its collapse, we went more than 8 years without a single month landing within the "normal" range. There were just too many homes on the market and it was common for fewer than 1/10th of them to sell each month.

Now, low inventory levels have created the opposite effect. More than two of every five homes listed for sale sold over the past six months. That means when buyers go looking at homes, there is not much out there that is not already under contract with other buyers.

The Housing Market In September

The housing market is insanely one-sided right now, with far more buyers than sellers. If you have a home to sell and pre-market it correctly, you will get offers on the first day your home is available to be seen. Ensure your broker uses an omnichannel marketing plan with an emphasis on pre-marketing and you'll be able to choose from the multiple offers that you receive.

When mortgage interest rates rise, it will have an immediate and significant impact on demand if they rise too quickly.

The luxury homes market could very well go dormant, as it has been super-hot over the past few years (setting an all-time high in 2020). The top-end of the market is most susceptible to collapse due to rising mortgage interest rates, so high-end sellers need to "make hay while the sun is shining!).

So long as rates rise gradually, we'll see demand cool in the market, but not in a damaging way. The lowered demand will increase the relative supply of homes and hopefully slow the out-of-control appreciation of home values. I would expect to see this happen fairly soon if the fed sees any signs of inflation, but forecasting the future of mortgage interest rates is highly speculative.

Real estate market conditions make it the best time I've seen in my 30 years selling homes in Tallahassee to sell a home within a predictable time frame. If you are wanting to move, do so now so that you can sell your current home fast and get into your new one financed at a rate below 3% for a 30-year loan!

Top Tips For Home Sellers

9 Mistakes to Avoid When Selling Your Home
Selling your home in Tallahassee can be daunting, especially if you're doing it for the first time in more than five years. Do This ...
Should you sell your home or rent it out?
If you're gearing up to relocate, your instinct might be to sell and capitalize on the rising home values. But what if there's an opportunity you haven't considered?
6 Tips For Selling A Home In 2022
This ain't your grandpa's real estate market, the process for selling a home and getting top dollar have changed so much. It starts with knowing the best way to sell your house. There are home selling tips and tricks you can use.
Sellers: Get The Most $ For Your Home
Understand real estate pre-marketing, why it works, and how to sell your house for the MOST MONEY POSSIBLE. Top Tips - Get ready to learn how to sell your house because with pre-marketing in real estate, you can sell a house fast for more money!
Your Home Failed To Sell, Now What?
What to do if your home failed to sell. When your "selling a home process" fails, it's time to start thinking about what to do next.
Top 7 Ways To Market Your Home For Sale Using Technology
Technology has opened up a world of possibilities for homeowners looking to market their property and attract potential buyers. In this video, we'll be sharing the top 7 ways to use technology to market your home for sale.
7 Critical Stages In Selling Your Home
The process for selling a home has changed greatly since the world went digital, but now after a historic sellers' market, today's home selling plan requires adjustments compared to the last few years.
I Asked An AI Why Real Estate Agents Ask Sellers For Price Reductions
If your real estate agent has recommended that you reduce your asking price, there could be several reasons for this suggestion.
Pre-Marketing: Win the Home Selling Race
Are you looking to sell your home for the most money possible in today's fast-paced and competitive real estate market? Then you must consider pre-marketing strategies.
How To Avoid Common Legal Issues When Buying Or Selling A Home
This video examines the most common real estate law problems and provides guidance on avoiding legal issues when buying or selling a home.
Selling A Home In A Strong Sellers Market | AVOID This MISTAKE!
If you are getting ready to sell a home, you must avoid making a horrible mistake that I'm seeing every single day. As we continue in the midst of the strongest seller's market on record, one might assume that a home seller can do no wrong.
How To Use Price Per Square Foot When Valuing A Home
Price per square foot is a measurement of a home's value, but the price per square foot alone is not an effective way to determine the price a home will sell in today's housing market.
Leveraging Seller Financing to Expand Market Opportunities
Owner financing explained, also known as seller financing or seller carryback, is a creative alternative to traditional mortgage financing for real estate.
Biggest Change In Selling A Home Since The Printing Press
Here is the biggest change in selling a home since the printing press was invented. Looking for selling a home process? This is the must-do process to sell a home.
How To Sell Your House Without A Real Estate Agent
This for sale by owner video is about empowering you to make informed decisions on what you’ll need to do to save the commission by selling a house without a realtor.
Selling A Home In 2022? The Most Important Question You Must Ask
There is one singular issue that stands above all others when selling a home in a strong sellers' market. In this video, I walk you through the question and best answer to the most important question you should ask when selling a home.
Get More Money For Your Home
In order to understand how to get more money from a house sale, one must learn about the neighborhood stalker.
Real Estate Negotiation Strategies For Each Market Condition
If you mishandle the negotiation on a home, several things will possibly happen, and all of them are bad. First and foremost, you’ll leave money on the table through either the sales price or the terms that are negotiated. Today, buyers are losing out on homes they want to buy and it’s often due to poor positioning in the negotiation. And while we are in the midst of a historic sellers’ market, I’m seeing sellers leave money on the table even when they have multiple offers! #realestatenegotiation #homenegot
Home Selling Tip: Don't Price Your Home On The 9s!
One of the most important steps in your marketing strategy when selling a home is setting the initial asking price for the home. While I have discussed this in previous videos, today I’m going to discuss a technique that I refer to as pricing on the 9s. It works to reduce the buyer pool for the home seller and reduce’s the seller’s chances of getting top dollar for the home. It is a terrible tactic and works against the seller. If you watch this short video, you’ll understand exactly why it hurts home selle
How Much Margin For Negotiation Should I Include In My Asking Price?
I was recently asked "How much margin for negotiation should I include in my asking price?" This is a common question from experienced home sellers. They have sold homes in the past and understand the negotiation process involves a game of give and take, so doesn’t it make good sense to start with a little wiggle room in your price so that you can give it to the buyer to secure a sale? Here's what you should know. I explain EXACTLY how much margin for negotiation you should add to the price of your home t
10 Home Inspection Issues And Tips
Moving from one home to another has enough stress and chaos built into the entire affair, and the home inspection is often the biggest stressor. Here's how to avoid home inspection stress!
Home Staging Advice For Sellers
Do you wonder how to net more money selling your home? This is one of my top home selling tips. Today's video is everything you need to know about staging your home in order to NET the most money from your sale. ?? Here's a link to our FREE Home Sellers Checklist mentioned in the video: https://www.tallahasseechecklist.com/home-seller-checklist-downloadzh61xghm
What Does A Transaction Coordinator Do?
When you are selling a home or buying a home, a critical member of your support team is your transaction coordinator. Here's what to expect!
Real Estate Appraisal Versus Fair Market Value Of A Home?
What is the difference between a real estate appraisal and the fair market value of a home? If there is one practice that confounds both home buyers and home sellers alike it's the fact that the majority of real estate transactions close at the mercy of an appraisal conducted for a purpose that most consumers do not consider. Understanding these differences will save you money when it comes to buying or selling a home, and it will help you appreciate the need and value of a real estate appraisal. But here’s
First Right Of Refusal Meaning Explained
What is a right of first refusal? What does first right of refusal mean when dealing with a real estate contract? Accepting real estate contingencies without understanding them often causes home sellers problems. I have shared a real-world example of how we handled a first right of refusal real estate contract negotiation, and the decision-making process used to put the home seller in the best situation possible. Pay close attention to this short video and you’ll have a better understanding of the right to
Why It's Alway About Supply And Demand In Real Estate
It's all about supply and demand. The real estate supply and demand dynamic tells us everything we need to know to forecast home sales in any given area.
The Truth About A Dubious Real Estate Statistic
They're Lying! When it comes to buying or selling a home, it's important to recognize false or misleading real estate stats (real estate statistics) that can lead to costly mistakes.
How To Sell A Home That Needs Repairs
How To Sell A Home That Needs Repairs - If you want to know how to sell a fixer upper house fast, then there are some fundamentals of selling a fixer-upper that you should understand. Ideally, in real estate sales, when selling a home, you should bring a house to market-condition before you sell your house fast in order to attain top dollar during the sale. But ideal situations are not always possible. If you follow the tips and advice in this video, you will know how to sell a fixer-upper house fast and in
What Is Pre Marketing In Real Estate When Selling A Home?
What is pre-marketing in real estate when selling a home? When your home hits the market and it "goes live," how many buyers will be standing in line to get in? Will it look like an Apple store on the day the new iPhone is released? If not, why not? ... it's all in the video ??????
What Is A Seller's Market In Real Estate?
You might have heard that we have a huge seller’s market right now in real estate. Do you know what that means? This real estate frequently asked question comes up from time to time when somebody is buying a home or selling a home. They want to know if its a buyer’s market or a seller’s market. Is now a good time to buy a home in the Tallahassee real estate market? I have prepared this short video to demonstrate the conditions that make this a seller’s market, and then we’ll show you the numbers and how we
How Digital Has Changed How We Sell A Home Today
Time to sell a home? The digital age has had a huge impact on what homeowners must do to get top dollar when selling their home. In this video, Joe Manausa explains why and how things have changed, and then lays out the plan for what home sellers must do.
5 Ways To Handle The House In A Divorce
If there is one thing that I see divorcing couples doing wrong more often than not, it is the decision on how to handle the house where the couple has lived. While I am not a lawyer and I'm not dispensing legal advice, take it from somebody who has helped hundreds of divorcing couples, there is a right way (and FOUR wrong ways) to handle the house in a divorce. Tell your attorney that you want to do it right!
Four Smart Ways To Use A Real Estate Contract Assignment
Contract assignability allows buyers to give or sell their rights to another buyer, and that creates opportunity. Tune in to discover four reasons to assign a real estate contract (including contract assignment profits)
Ugly Real Estate Listing Pictures | Real Estate Photography Tips
I’ve got some funny, ugly real estate listing pictures to share with you today, along with some simple real estate photography tips. Take a humorous look at some of the WORST pictures I have seen used when marketing a home ... not the way to sell your house!
How Long Does It Take To Sell A Home In 2021?
How long does it take a home to sell in 2021? I've been asked this question a lot recently, and it made me realize a full explanation was in order. Why? Because if you understood how to sell a home for top dollar, you would know that it is a trick question. Trust me on this. Invest the few minutes it takes to watch the video and you'll have a better understanding of selling a home than do most people in the real estate industry (and I'll prove it!).
What Is A Swimming Pool Worth?
What Is A Swimming Pool Worth? Recently, a customer buying a home asked me a simple question. She inquired “how much does a pool add to the value of a home?” Pretty simple question, right? Well, by the end of this short video, you’ll know the not-so-simple answer (and why this is so important).
Real Estate Is Local - What This Means!
If you plan on buying a home, or selling a home, you’ll want to understand the local nature of real estate and use it to your advantage.
How HGTV Is Like Meth For Homebuyers
This is what I have observed regarding the HGTV impact on buying a home and selling a home.

Your Local Expert In Tallahassee

When moving to, in, or from Tallahassee, you will fare better if you work with a local expert. We are here to help. If you have further questions on the Tallahassee real estate market, you can leave a comment below, give us a call at (850) 366-8917, or drop us a note and we'll give you the local information needed to ensure a successful, smooth transaction.

As a local born and raised in Tallahassee with a focus on customer service, I promise you'll find great success when working with Joe Manausa Real Estate, just as have our past customers. You can read thousands of their reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow right here: Real Estate Agent Reviews Tallahassee.

The digital marketing guide for small businessesHave you heard about my new book "The Business of Getting Business?" It's a comprehensive guide for small businesses to help them make the move to digital. For those of us who want to survive and thrive in a world where large corporations are taking over, it is a must-read. It's also the perfect guide for how to sell a home in the digital age. You can find The Business Of Getting Business by clicking on any of the trusted retailers below.

Real Estate Agent reveals in Tallahassee, Florida

Think all REALTORS are alike?

Read what people are saying about working with Joe Manausa Real Estate! You can see thousands of real customer reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow at this link: CLICK HERE FOR REAL ESTATE AGENT REVIEWS.

Post a Comment

(850) 378-5727