Updated Home Inventory Report Shows Supply Is Falling
There has been little good news to report from the Tallahassee real estate market lately, but I am seeing the beginning of what I hope are trends that will lead to the bottom of this market, and the turn-around thereafter. The Tallahassee home inventory reports are updated through yesterday at The Market Bulletin, and I felt they would make a great focal point for today's blog. I figured everybody might still be sleeping after reading the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter that was published yesterday.
Carol Palacios has enabled us to keep an eye on inventory. You see, it has been Carol, not I, who has been logging into the Tallahassee MLS twice per week since March 3, 2008 (one year ago) to record the data that allows us to track daily housing inventory movement in the Tallahassee real estate market. So if you see Carol, thank her for this great information! I do not know of any other web site or blog like this in the entire world, and it's all thanks to her. Speaking of which, check out the 1 Year Inventory Trends that are just becoming usable.
Tallahassee Real Estate One Year Trend Graph
Tracking home inventory in the Tallahassee MLS requires a near-daily vigilance, as there is no way to "go back" and restore information to its past status. If you don't gather the information while it is fresh, then you lose it. That is why this next real estate graph is "one of a kind."
The 1 Year Trend shows a view that is very important. Seasonality (as discussed in great length in the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter) has such a large impact on our market, that it is imperative that we study 365 day averages (1 Year Trends) in order to remove all elements of sub-annual seasonality. From the graph above, we know that sales are falling by more than 1 home per day in the last quarter, and it has nothing to do with "time of year" issues. We also know that failures are on a continuous rise, while new listings are on the decline.
Key Trends In The Tallahassee Real Estate Market
When we look at the 1 Year Trends report, I find it very helpful to view the same information as a percentage of homes listed. It gives you the benefit of understanding the significance of each category that is being tracked.
From this real estate graph, we can see that homes coming "back on the market" after failing to sell are nearly 50% in the past three months, while homes sales success rates have stabilized around 35% (down from over 40% just three months ago). Of course, the good news is that the total number of homes for sale in Tallahassee has dropped nearly 800 homes since this time last year!
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