Weekly Special | December 29, 2025

Expect A Fairly “Normal” 2026

Real estate has seasons, just like everything else that involves weather, calendars, and human behavior.

The graph on this page tells a simple but powerful story. Over more than two decades of Tallahassee MLS data, buyer activity follows a remarkably consistent rhythm. Contracts rise in the spring, peak in late spring and early summer, then ease back through fall and winter. Not dramatically. Not mysteriously. Just… predictably.

So what does that mean as we look ahead to 2026?

Assuming a normal year, no shocks, no extremes, we expect these seasonal patterns to hold. Families still prefer to move when school is out. Sellers still list when homes show best. Buyers still feel more confident when daylight lingers a little longer.

The wildcard, of course, is interest rates.

Rates will be the single biggest factor determining how closely the market follows its usual script. If rates stabilize or gradually improve, seasonality should look very familiar, strong spring demand, healthy summer activity, and a quieter but more strategic fall and winter. If rates remain volatile, timing may matter more, but patterns won’t disappear. They’ll just compress or stretch.

That’s the important takeaway: Seasonality doesn’t vanish, it adapts.

For buyers, that means opportunity still exists year-round, especially outside peak months when competition softens. For sellers, it reinforces the value of preparation and pricing, aligned with buyer behavior, not headlines.

Markets move. Seasons repeat. Data remembers.

And when you know the rhythm, you can move with confidence, no matter the year. To track your equity in today’s scarce market, get your free monthly updates here.

This issue went with a longer report on our blog: read the full blog post. The original one-page Weekly Special PDF is still available.