Weekly Special | July 13, 2026

Median Home Price Headed For $1M

A $1M median home price in North Florida sounds extreme today. But if long-term appreciation continues, the timeline is closer than many people expect.

This week’s chart estimates when each county’s median home price could reach $1M using its 2013 median sale price and observed compound appreciation rate. It is not a guarantee, and it is not meant to predict the exact month with certainty.

The real message is larger than the date.

Prices do not need to explode in one year for affordability to become much harder over time. Compounding does the work slowly, then suddenly. What looks manageable today can become a much higher barrier for future buyers if income, savings, and borrowing power do not keep pace.

That is why homeownership remains such a powerful wealth-building tool. Owners benefit from appreciation on the full value of the property, not just the down payment. A buyer who puts 10% to 20% down still participates in price growth on the entire home. Add loan paydown, limited supply, and long-term demand, and the ownership advantage can become significant over time.

For buyers, waiting may feel conservative. But waiting can become expensive if prices, insurance, taxes, and borrowing costs move faster than income.

For homeowners, this chart is a reminder that real estate wealth is built over time. The market will not move in a straight line, but long-term ownership in a supply-constrained region can quietly change a household’s financial position.

Most importantly, this is both warning and a recommendation to let your local political representative know that we don’t want Tallahassee to face the housing crisis that is most profoundly defined by the state of California. We have a supply-side problem that is driving appreciation rates at double the speed the market averaged prior to the 1980s. It will not fix itself.

Read the full $1M price projection to see the county timeline and local market impact. Find your million dollar date here.

This issue went with a longer report on our blog: read the full blog post. The original one-page Weekly Special PDF is still available.