Weekly Special | December 25, 2016

It Was A Great Year For Top 1% Of The Market

The year’s not quite yet completed, but there have been enough high end homes sold to declare that 2016 is the fourth best year on record for the sale of homes priced above $650,000. This means that the high end (the top 1% of the market is >$650K) outperformed the rest of the market!

Bar chart of Tallahassee homes over $650,000 sold through December each year from 2003 to 2016, peaking near 60 in 2006 and near 49 in 2016.

Trouble Brewing?

It’s too early to say if the recent rise in mortgage interest rates is going to have a large impact on the high end homes market. I suspect it will.

If mortgage interest rates move about 4.5% and remain there, I would anticipate fewer high end homes selling in 2017. And that is only the tip of the potential iceberg.

Currently, there are 59 high end homes for sale in the Tallahassee MLS, and only 7 of them are under contract. Contrast this 12% under contract ratio with other price ranges that are typically nearer 40% and you can understand why high end home sellers have cause for concern.

With more than a year’s worth of supply of these homes in December (when inventory is always at the lowest), we know the high end market will be a buyer’s market for several more years at a minimum.

High end sellers need to recognize that market conditions are better now than they have been for years and know that these strong conditions are carried by historically low mortgage interest rates.

If you want to unload a high end home, now might just be your best chance for a long, long time.

This issue went with a longer report on our blog: read the full blog post. The original one-page Weekly Special PDF is still available.

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