Tallahassee Housing Report January 9, 2010

The first sign that we will see an increase in the number of home sales in Tallahassee is when we see the “contracts pending” (meaning homes under contract) increase in the Tallahassee MLS. The following graph is a daily measure of the 365-day trend of new pending contracts. It certainly seems as if we might be moving upwards finally!
The following real estate graph shows the change in buyer activity each day. Each point on the graph represents the daily average number of homes sold in Tallahassee for the past 365 days. We are hoping that we saw this “bottom out” and that the rise will continue.
Closed Home Sales In The Tallahassee MLS

Tallahassee Housing Inventory: 30 Day Trend Report

We are seeing homes leave the market faster than new ones are being brought in, though not just through sales. Many homes are failing to sell, and then not being relisted. The shadow inventory continues to grow. The red area represents homes coming on the market (new listings & re-listed homes), the green area represents those homes leaving the market (sold, expired, canceled and withdrawn listings), while the yellow area shows the total change (above the line means that inventory is growing, below the line means that inventory is shrinking).

Home Sales Failure Rate

Another interesting trend to watch is the comparison of home failures (homes that failed to sell during their listing period in the Tallahassee MLS) versus homes that were listed for sale over the past year. This trend gives us a feel for how hard it is right now to sell a home in Tallahassee.

Homes That Failed To Sell In The Tallahassee MLS

The failures is a measure of the number of homes that failed to sell over the past year compared to the number of homes that were newly listed for sale over the same period of time. Based upon the current trend, we have seen failures explode as high as 85%., though the current trend seems to be getting better. This means that we are consuming inventory, but more through failures than through sales. We are now able to observe these trends on a 1-year basis , allowing the seasonal distortion to be removed (meaning a whole year’s data means that there are no spikes due to time of the year changes).

One Year Trend In Tallahassee Housing Market Inventories

The real estate graph records four very important trends, all in “one picture”. What we are seeing here is a slow decline in the number of homes listed each day (down by nearly 5 homes per day, on average, since mid December 2008). Simultaneously, we’re seeing nearly a falling number of failures per day (from 15 to 13) and a decline in the sales and pendings. Overall, more inventory is leaving the market than is coming on the market.
Inventory Trends In The Tallahassee MLS

Tallahassee Home Sellers Find Difficulty Selling Their Homes

The next real estate graph is what we refer to as the “Sales Success Graph.” We track the number of homes that sell and compare it to the number of new homes listed during the same period of time. The short-term has improved greatly over the past four months, with a sales success level starting to rebound from a depth of 20% to roughly 55%.

We observe the long-term trend crossing over the 41% mark, which is right at the level it was just 1 year ago. We hope to continue to see this rise, but we are concerned with the mounting inventory of homes in the “Shadow Inventory” that the supply side is going to grow again next year.

Home Sales Success In The Tallahassee MLS

While the specific value is not necessarily reflective of the true rate of success Tallahassee home sellers are finding, the direction of the trend is a fair assessment of whether or not the home sellers are finding more or less success as the market continues forward. The blue field is the 1 Year Trend, meaning that no seasonality exists in its measurement. We can accurately say that sellers are having a harder time selling their home today than they were 1 year ago. This line is currently trending at 40%, meaning over the past year, only 40% of the homes listed actually sold in the Tallahassee real estate market.
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