Promising Trends For The Tallahassee Real Estate Market

Happy New Year Everyone! I have been so busy "closing out" 2007 that I haven't been very active blogging for the past month or so. This is going to change.... I figured a great way to start 2008 is with some exciting news! One chart that I track every month regarding the Tallahassee Real Estate Market is created with information from the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS). This chart shows current trends and actually is useful when trying to predict the near future. The chart below is from information from all the counties in the MLS, and it shows a great new trend that seems to have started four months ago. The blue line shows the trend of monthly "newly pended (newly written but not closed) contracts," while the red line shows the trend of monthly closed sales.

As you can see, we have been on a downward trend in homes sold ever-since the end of 2005. Many people have asked me when I think the Tallahassee Real Estate market will turnaround, and the answer that I have been giving is "it's hard to say..." Well, we know that closed sales come from contracts that were written in the past, and this chart shows us that contract writing seems to be increasing in the MLS. Based upon this, we should hopefully see a turn in the closed trend sometime in this year. The key to this chart is that the turn-around could not begin without an upward trend in "Pend Trend."

Remember, when tracking trends using a 12-month moving average as in the chart above, we are removing seasonality. This is truly a look at year-over-year sales on an ongoing basis.

So cross your fingers and hope that this apparent trend continues.

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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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