Pending And Closed Home Sales Update 2/14/2011
The most obvious way to predict future home sales would be to take a look at the list of homes that are under contract and waiting for closing. These are what we refer to as “Pending Home Sales” and we can track them on a daily basis in the MLS.
The real estate graph below shows the one-year trend of pending home sales, so the changes that we see are not due to any annual seasonality in any way (every point on the graph contains a full 365 days worth of information).
With the tax credit ending as a stimulant to new pending home sales, this report showed instant negative feedback. Beginning with the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, home sales fell and reached a new low on November 13, 2010. But ever since that date, we have seen a steady rise, indicating that buyer activity might finally be growing again. Keep your fingers crossed, because this is better results than our earlier forecasts had expected.
Future home closings have been on the decline since the end of the stimulus, but the market appears to have staved off a new market bottom. The graph below shows daily closed home sales in Tallahassee have fallen greatly, but a new bottom is currently being tested.