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New Home Construction Sales Dwindle To 28+ Year Low

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New Home Construction Sales Dwindle To 28+ Year Low

The inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee remains far too low for the growing number of buyers in the market, yet we still aren’t seeing builders producing homes at a pace that will help.

In fact, instead of building more homes to at least keep pace with the buyers, we are seeing the new construction rate decline!

Take a look at the new construction listings below as well as the report with charts and graphs that follows, and you will understand my concern.

Tallahassee New Home Construction Listings

New Home Construction Listings

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1,027 Properties
Page 1 of 21
46
414 Bienville Place , Tallahassee, FL, 32317
Active
$486,642
414 Bienville Place
Tallahassee, FL, 32317
Beds5Baths4MLS#406841
46
410 Bienville Place , Tallahassee, FL, 32317
Active
$486,642
410 Bienville Place
Tallahassee, FL, 32317
Beds5Baths4MLS#406840
Open House
59
2304 Hampshire Way , Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Active
$475,000
2304 Hampshire Way
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds4Baths2MLS#406788
Open House
39
5012 Caracara Drive , Tallahassee, FL, 32312
Active
$500,000
5012 Caracara Drive
Tallahassee, FL, 32312
Beds4Baths3MLS#406771
70
1308 Leewood Drive , Tallahassee, FL, 32312
Active
$474,900
1308 Leewood Drive
Tallahassee, FL, 32312
Beds4Baths2MLS#406708
70
7906 LONESOME DOVE Lane , Tallahassee, FL, 32311
Active
$480,000
7906 LONESOME DOVE Lane
Tallahassee, FL, 32311
Beds4Baths2MLS#406686
49
842 Avery Park Drive , Tallahassee, FL, 32317
Active
$485,000
842 Avery Park Drive
Tallahassee, FL, 32317
Beds3Baths2MLS#406667
29
402 Glenview Drive , Tallahassee, FL, 32303
Active
$495,000
402 Glenview Drive
Tallahassee, FL, 32303
Beds3Baths3MLS#406624
Open House
38
3737 Esplanade Way , Tallahassee, FL, 32311
Active
$499,000
3737 Esplanade Way
Tallahassee, FL, 32311
Beds3Baths3MLS#406493
50
8668 ALEXANDRITE Court , Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Active
$499,000
8668 ALEXANDRITE Court
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds4Baths3MLS#406391
67
1218 Terrace Street , Tallahassee, FL, 32303
Active
$499,000
1218 Terrace Street
Tallahassee, FL, 32303
Beds3Baths3MLS#406390
44
2906 SHAMROCK , Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Active
$514,000
2906 SHAMROCK
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds4Baths3MLS#406309
...

Our report also includes several graphs that provide valuable insight into the new construction market in Tallahassee. Additionally, we have included a table of the most recent new home sales in Tallahassee and it is located at the end of this report.

The listings above and the sales table below will be continuously updated into the future (meaning bookmark this page if you always want to know the current status of new construction homes in Tallahassee).

New Home Construction Share Declines

The following graph clearly shows the imbalance in the market.

New Home Sales Lowest Percentage In 27 Years

New home sales are plotted in brown, while existing home sales are shown in green. The red line shows the ratio of new home sales to all home sales (new construction market share). Through March of this year, new home sales only represent 8% of all homes sold in Tallahassee.

To put this into perspective, in the 1990s, roughly 21% of all home sales were new construction. Even at the very bottom of the housing market correction, new home sales were a greater percentage of the market than what we are observing today.

While the title of this report claims 28+ year low, the reality is that it could very well be much longer than that. My data only goes back to 1991, and the ratio at the beginning was around 23%. How far back from 1991 would we need to go to find 8%?

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How Expensive Are New Homes?

One factor that explains why existing home sales are doing so well right now is the value differential between new and used.

One factor that explains why existing new home sales are doing so well is the value differential.

The graph above shows that buyers are paying about a 50% premium when buying new versus used. 

Of course, this is not comparing apples to apples. The new homes are brand new with all new modern appliances and fixtures, while the existing homes are typically well worn but the land under the typical resale is superior in size and location to most new homes.

Regardless, tracking this “new construction premium” over time is a useful way to identify the relative affordability of new construction. As this measurement remain towards the higher end of the spectrum, we can expect resale values to continue higher to close the gap.

Once we see this differential reach its historical “normal” level (between 30% and 40%), we should anticipate a significant growth in demand of new homes.

Building Permits Versus Home Sales

Another trend we like to track is annual building permits versus annual sales.

Leon County building permits graphed against new home sales

This graph shows the average monthly permits issued for new homes (red line) versus new home sales (green line).

What we are looking for from this graph is times when there is great separation between the two trends.

The past ten years show that sales followed permits very tightly, meaning the homes being built were selling. Currently, there is a small separation between the two, and we’ll have to monitor this to see if we are adding to the inventory of new homes for sale in Tallahassee.

As of this morning, there are 206 new homes for sale in the Tallahassee MLS, and 74 are already under contract (36%). This is consistent with what we are seeing from existing homes, so I do not believe the small spike in permits will create an inventory issue.

One interesting observation is that the median price of new homes under contract ($327,700) is higher than the median price of new homes for sale that are not under contract ($291,200). Prudent builders should definitely study the market before deciding what and where to build.

Recent New Home Sales

The following table shows 1,000 recent new home sales in Tallahassee.

New Construction Sales In Tallahassee

NeighborhoodAddressPricePrice / SQFClosing DateYear BuiltSQF
Canopy3917 Ardmore Ln$600,000$2522026-10-0920262,378
Fletcher Oaks487 Grand Oaks Rd$405,000$2252026-10-0920231,804
Campbell Park3399 Mizell St$290,000$2232026-10-0720261,301
Fallschase540 Bienville Pl$687,900$2382026-10-0120262,890
Plaza Tower300 S Duval St$310,000$2612026-10-0120091,186
Fallschase4106 Beauregard Way$460,000$2092026-09-3020262,200
Fallschase543 Bienville Pl$369,100$2402026-09-3020261,535
Landon Hills8364 Bull Headley Rd$451,600$2512026-09-3020251,802
Landon Hills8388 Bull Headley Rd$441,600$2452026-09-2920261,802
Abilene Acres709 Dailey Dr$279,900$1922026-09-2820261,459
Pine Dove Estates5576 White Dove Trl$435,000$2422026-09-2820261,799
Fallschase420 Kenyon Pl$339,900$1792026-09-2520261,895
Canopy3925 Ardmore Ln$575,300$2502026-09-2320262,302
Tower Gates4498 River Breeze Ln$298,000$2172026-09-2320251,374
Plaza Tower300 S Duval St Apt 1111$315,000$2652026-09-2120091,188
Canopy3749 Meadow Vista Ln$426,600$2362026-09-1820251,804
Fallschase215 Calcasieu Pass$499,900$2182026-09-1820262,295
Fallschase517 Dartez Ct$399,900$2392026-09-1820261,670
Capital Heights530 W 4TH Ave$315,000$2222026-09-1820261,420
Abilene Acres4876 Six Mile Pond Loop$289,900$1992026-09-1820261,459
None1520 Summerbrooke Dr$530,700$2832026-09-1620261,873
Fallschase424 Kenyon Pl$342,900$1812026-09-1520261,895
The Franklin275 S Franklin Blvd Unit 6$680,000$3342026-09-1520252,038
Abilene Acres4884 Six Mile Pond Loop$302,300$2062026-09-1520261,470
Olson Ridge2951 Ervine St$400,900$1772026-09-1420252,259
Southwood4075 Four Oaks Blvd$399,900$2362026-09-1120261,695
None1536 Summerbrooke Dr$598,100$2332026-09-0820252,572
Pine Dove Estates5360 Pine Dove Dr$562,900$1952026-09-0420262,890
Canopy3789 Meadow Vista Ln$661,600$2562026-09-0320262,582
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1491 Summerbrooke Dr$629,900$2432026-09-0320262,589
Fallschase418 Kenyon Pl$339,900$1792026-08-3120261,895
Fallschase416 Kenyon Pl$349,000$1862026-08-3120261,876
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1431 Summerbrooke Dr$532,800$2842026-08-3120251,873
Hammock At Oak Grove589 Knotted Pine Dr$581,300$2722026-08-2820262,137
Hammock At Oak Grove585 Knotted Pine Dr$619,900$2912026-08-2520242,130
None8548 Scott Tower Rd$580,000$2692026-08-2420262,160
Landon Hills1379 Landon Hills Dr$248,000$1942026-08-2120261,280
Pine Dove Estates5584 White Dove Trl$564,900$1952026-08-2120262,890
Fallschase4110 Beauregard Way$503,500$1972026-08-2020262,550
None1568 Summerbrooke Dr$590,900$2302026-08-2020262,572
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1488 Summerbrooke Dr$504,200$2692026-08-1920251,873
Pine Dove Estates7921 Lonesome Dove Ln$526,800$2172026-08-1720262,429
Canopy3909 Ardmore Ln$647,400$2512026-08-1420262,582
Canopy3799 Day Garden Dr$442,000$2242026-08-1420231,975
Homestead Ridge9350 Powderhorn Ave$370,500$2682026-08-1420251,384
None1552 Summerbrooke Dr$834,800$2422026-08-1120263,447
Fallschase4102 Beauregard Way$450,000$2052026-08-0720262,200
Town N Country Park934 Chestwood Ave$367,200$2452026-08-0720261,501
Fallschase519 Bienville Pl$410,000$2092026-08-0520261,964
Tower Gates4470 River Breeze Ln$335,100$2102026-08-0520251,592
Fallschase4272 Duhon St$543,600$2112026-08-0420262,572
Southwood4073 Four Oaks Blvd$410,700$2422026-07-3020261,695
Canopy2832 Mews Lndg$305,700$2392026-07-2820261,280
Bond South2002 Pasco St$225,000$2032026-07-2420261,109
Bond South2006 Pasco St$225,000$2032026-07-2420261,109
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1504 Summerbrooke Dr$696,200$2702026-07-2320262,582
Reserve At Rivers Landing4899 Sampler Dr$311,000$2252026-07-2220261,382
Tower Gates5736 Pinebarren Rd$324,000$2302026-07-2020251,409
Landon Hills1354 Landon Hills Dr$402,500$2482026-07-1720241,622
Canopy3905 Ardmore Ln$599,800$2522026-07-1520262,378
Canopy3829 Ardmore Ln$579,600$2522026-07-1420252,302
Canopy2349 Briar Rose Gln$330,000$2642026-07-1020251,252
Fallschase4236 Landry Ln$440,500$2792026-07-0920261,580
Landon Hills8373 Bull Headley Rd$464,900$2162026-07-0820262,149
Waterford Plantation6286 Longwood Ct$557,000$2572026-07-0220242,170
Canopy2374 Briar Rose Gln$431,600$2402026-07-0120251,802
Hammock At Oak Grove649 Knotted Pine Dr$613,400$2722026-07-0120262,255
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1471 Summerbrooke Dr$667,900$2592026-07-0120262,582
Maple Ridge2351 Maple Leaf Way$1,420,000$3102026-07-0120244,587
Fallschase515 Bienville Pl$370,000$2412026-06-3020261,535
Fallschase505 Dartez Ct$399,900$2392026-06-3020261,670
Southwood4061 Brownstone Way$381,200$2122026-06-3020251,799
Fallschase507 Bienville Pl$430,000$1962026-06-2920262,198
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1479 Summerbrooke Dr$587,000$2282026-06-2920262,572
Pine Dove Estates5598 White Dove Trl$566,900$1962026-06-2920262,890
Fallschase457 Dartez Ct$399,900$2392026-06-2620261,670
Tower Gates5700 Flowerbrook Cir$340,000$2142026-06-2620261,592
Pine Dove Estates5368 Pine Dove Dr$624,900$2052026-06-2620263,044
None1007 Williams Landing Rd$1,169,000$4082026-06-2520242,864
Key Acres2715 Gerald Dr$295,800$1642026-06-2520231,800
University Green1978 Greencastle Ln$229,900$1872026-06-2320261,232
Canopy3737 Meadow Vista Ln$425,000$2362026-06-2220251,802
Fallschase4247 Thibodeax Trl$529,900$2312026-06-2220262,295
Fallschase425 Dartez Ct$399,900$2392026-06-1820261,670
Landon Hills8377 Bull Headley Rd$462,900$2152026-06-1820262,149
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1463 Summerbrooke Dr$568,900$2772026-06-1820252,055
None4520 Garden Oaks Way$424,900$1902026-06-1820252,239
Canopy3825 Ardmore Ln$580,000$2522026-06-1720252,302
Fallschase360 Bienville Pl$537,000$2092026-06-1720252,572
Pine Dove EstatesPeace Dove Trl$564,900$1952026-06-1720262,890
Olson Ridge2909 Ervine St$460,000$1802026-06-1620252,550
Pine Dove Estates5370 Pine Dove Dr$564,900$1952026-06-1620262,890
Golden Eagle Plantation2875 Royal Isle Dr$1,479,400$3792026-06-1220263,900
Hammock At Oak Grove8419 Knotted Pine Ln$579,400$2722026-06-1220252,130
Hartsfield Hills1632 San Damian Rd$499,000$2572026-06-1220251,939
Reserve At Rivers Landing4909 Sampler Dr$309,500$2242026-06-0920261,382
Fallschase4248 Landry Ln$446,700$2832026-06-0820261,580
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1427 Summerbrooke Dr$639,000$2692026-06-0820252,378
Conservation Of Summerbrooke1443 Summerbrooke Dr$618,400$2602026-06-0520252,378
Canopy2347 Briar Rose Gln$331,200$2592026-06-0320251,280

This concludes our April 2018 update on new home construction sales, please give us a call at (850) 366-8917 or drop us a note if you have questions about buying or building a new home. If you want to know what people are saying about working with Joe Manausa Real Estate, you can see hundreds of real customer reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow right here: http://www.manausa.com/testimonials.

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