Hey Joe, Why Are So Many Homes For Sale In Killearn Acres?

Posted by
Share
Share
Share
Share

Hey Joe, Why Are So Many Homes For Sale In Killearn Acres?

Somebody asked me this the other day and my first reaction was “there aren’t that many!”

This article contains all the Killearn Acres listings and a short exercise on using a neighborhood turnover rate to forecast real estate inventories and sales.

How Many Homes For Sale In Killearn Acres Is Normal?

Currently, there are 30 homes for sale in Killearn Acres, but only 8 of them are under contract (which is a lower percentage than we are seeing in the other Tallahassee neighborhoods that we closely monitor). You can see the current listings below and the article continues afterwards.

Killearn Acres

Killearn Acres

9 Properties
3256 Apollo Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#406632
6712 Tomy Lee Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#404059
6451 Cavalcade Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#405353
6503 Man O War Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#405342
6447 Joe Cotton Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#401394
6745 ALAN A DALE Street
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#405904
6538 Iron Liege Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#406353
6847 TOMY LEE Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#405832
6724 Apollo Trail
Tallahassee, FL, 32309
Beds3Baths2MLS#404195

For those readers who are new to our site or who do not know Tallahassee well, Killearn Acres is a forty year old neighborhood in NE Tallahassee, close to parks, restaurants, shopping, a library branch, medical facilities, churches and excellent schools. Its 900 acres (about 1.4 square miles) represents the northern border of Killearn Estates and is situated south of Bradfordville Road. 

There are just under 1,500 homes in Killearn Acres, so how many should be on the market?

A Little Bit Of Math Won’t Hurt You

For our readers that aren’t “math people,” stick with me, I promise this won’t be too deep and I believe you’ll learn something that most real estate agents don’t even know.

You can forecast future home sales by having a good understanding of historical sales in a neighborhood. And it’s not very difficult.

The “turnover rate” in a neighborhood is the measurement of the number of homes that sell each year (on average) compared to the total number of homes that exist. If 145 homes sell this year and 1,445 homes currently exist in Killearn Acres, we would compute a turnover rate of 10% for Killearn Acres.

Also (OK, here’s the math) the inverse of the turnover rate of a neighborhood is equal to the average length of time a homeowner lives in a neighborhood. For example, if a neighborhood’s turnover rate is 9%, then the average number of years that a homeowner owns a home is equal to [1 / (.09)] = 11.1 years.

Now younger neighborhoods have other issues going on (like new construction and no history), but established ones like Killearn Acres are an easy study.

How to use the turnover rate in real estate to forecast neighborhood home sales

Killearn Acres Turnover Rate

Tallahassee neighborhoods do not all have the same turnover rate. This is due to the fact each neighborhood typically has homes in a specific price range, meaning it likely attracts people at a similar stages in life. For example, you wouldn’t expect somebody to purchase a small condo near FSU and live there the same amount of time as you would expect somebody who purchases a five bedroom home in a Northeast Tallahassee community.

So one way to measure whether there are “a lot” of homes for sale in Killearn Acres is to look at the historical turnover rate and see what it would forecast for home sales this year.

At the bottom of this article, I have included a table of all the recorded home sales in Killearn Acres going back to 1991, and from this we can extrapolate the following turnover rates and home ownership periods in Killearn Acres for the past 25 years.

Killearn Acres Turnover

  • Past 5 Years: 55 homes per year, 3.8% rate, average ownership 26 years 
  • Past 10 Years: 59 homes per year, 4.1% rate, average ownership 24 years 
  • Past 25 Years: 99 homes per year, 6.8% rate, average ownership 15 years 
  • 1990s: 130 homes per year, 9.0% rate, average ownership 11 years 
  • 2000s: 98 homes per year, 6.8% rate, average ownership 15 years 

Obviously, the collapse of the housing market was felt in Killearn Acres too.

We can see a graph of home sales and the movement of home values over time below. Note how the total number of homes sold (vertical bars) through July of this year is roughly the same as all twelve months of sales for most of the past ten years (homes are selling again in Killearn Acres!).

Home Sales Graph Of Killearn Acres

Average Home Value

Forecast For Killearn Acres

I suspect the number of home sales in the early 1990s might have been elevated slightly due to the fact that there was still new construction attracting additional homebuyers. Overall, time has shown us we should expect a turnover rate of 7% to 9% and then adjust it to current market conditions.

Since the past ten years has been well below this rate, I anticipate a higher rate over the next ten years, perhaps 9% to 11% (with some years even higher). Why?

Pent-up supply. There are homeowners who statistically would have moved away from Killearn Acres over the past ten years who remain because their home values have declined. But as we see in the graph above, home values are on the rise (up 8% so far in 2016) and they are likely to continue far higher.

Current sellers are apparently not satisfied with the 8% gain this year, as the median asking values is up an additional 13% over the 8% gain from last year (meaning current sellers want 21% more than last year’s seller’s received).

For the most part, buyers have rejected their new asking prices and that is why Killearn Acres has a lower percentage of homes under contract that do most neighborhoods nearby.

But patient sellers will get their prices once the more motivated sellers have moved. And this should not be a very long wait.

It is not crazy to expect 130 to 160 home sales in Killearn Acres in 2017, and I would all but guarantee we’ll see that many during at least one of the next five years. As you can see from the graph above, this forecast represents a projection of a years that see 200% to 300% more homes selling in Killearn Acres than what we saw at the market bottom in 2012.

The A-rated schools and the quality of homes will continue to make Killearn Acres a hot destination as we progress out of the housing market recovery. Builders cannot create a product like this for less than $350,000, so we know that prices will be heading north for the foreseeable future.

So there are not “so many” homes for sale in Killearn Acres. In fact, there are too few. If current sellers were a little less aggressive with their prices, none of these homes would be available.

Past Home Sales In Killearn Acres

The following table contains all 2,500+ home sales in Killearn Acres going back to the beginning of 1991.

Home Sales in Killearn Acres

AddressPricePrice / SQFClosing DateYear BuiltSQFSale Type
6429 Jet Pilot Trl$260,200$1512026-10-0919861,718Resale
6704 Johnstown Loop$340,000$1802026-10-0219841,888Resale
6708 Chant Trl$335,000$2422026-10-0219791,386Resale
6842 Donerail Trl$295,000$2352026-09-3019811,253Resale
3257 Lord Murphy Trl$270,000$1492026-09-2919891,815Resale
3335 Gallant Fox Trl$325,000$2202026-09-1819841,480Resale
3208 Majestic Prince Trl$355,000$2542026-09-1019901,397Resale
4983 Pimlico Dr$327,800$1982026-09-1019881,653Resale
6705 Tim Tam Trl$325,000$1882026-08-3119831,726Resale
6838 Hill Gail Trl$345,000$2562026-08-1419871,349Resale
6515 Man O War Trl$319,300$2652026-08-0419871,205Resale
3201 Whirlaway Trl$300,000$2022026-07-3119791,486Resale
6516 Montrose Trl$305,000$2082026-07-3119831,465Resale
6842 Donerail Trl$190,000$1522026-07-3019811,253Resale
3516 Whirlaway Trl$395,000$2052026-07-2919891,924Resale
6728 Apollo Trl$180,000$1122026-07-1619791,610Resale
6727 Johnstown Loop$314,000$2332026-06-2619861,347Resale
4891 Pimlico Dr$297,500$2042026-06-2619811,456Resale
3300 Gallant Fox Trl$315,000$2012026-06-2519781,569Resale
6047 Pimlico Ct$625,000$2182026-06-1519942,864Resale
5135 Pimlico Dr$760,000$2312026-06-0920003,288Resale
3229 Majestic Prince Trl$294,000$2042026-06-0819821,440Resale
6845 Hill Gail Trl$284,500$2312026-06-0519831,233Resale
6455 Joe Cotton Trl$320,000$2182026-06-0319831,468Resale
5024 Pimlico Dr$315,000$2102026-05-1119831,500Resale
6708 Johnstown Loop$380,000$2102026-05-0719841,808Resale
6525 Iron Liege Trl$310,000$2212026-04-2219831,403Resale
6620 Reigh Count Trl$310,000$2322026-04-1719881,336Resale
3413 Native Dancer Trl$325,000$2142026-04-1519781,516Resale
6842 Hill Gail Trl$360,000$2842026-04-1319881,266Resale
6615 Kingman Trl$495,000$2212026-04-1020062,240Resale
3228 Lord Murphy Trl$289,000$1572026-04-0319891,836Resale
2956 Whirlaway Trl$352,000$2082026-03-3119801,693Resale
6448 Joe Cotton Trl$299,000$1532026-03-1819821,957Resale
6712 Tim Tam Trl$275,000$2022026-03-1219841,362Resale
6605 Donerail Trl$385,000$2402026-03-1219941,606Resale
6348 Count Fleet Trl$450,000$3002026-03-0219791,500Resale
3504 Whirlaway Trl$320,000$1632026-02-2719811,968Resale
6428 Count Turf Trl$359,900$2232026-02-2619841,612Resale
6631 Kingman Trl$330,000$2292026-02-2019791,444Resale
6605 Tomy Lee Trl$308,000$2532026-02-1819941,217Resale
6530 Iron Liege Trl$327,400$2222026-02-1819831,476Resale
5328 Ben Brush Trl$465,000$2072026-01-2919832,248Resale
5257 Pimlico Dr$560,000$2182026-01-2319862,571Resale
6615 Kingman Trl$285,000$1272026-01-1320062,240Resale
3105 Elwood Trl$305,000$1862026-01-0919911,640Resale
3132 Lookout Trl$432,000$2072026-01-0519852,087Resale
6528 Kingman Trl$330,000$1872026-01-0519791,764Resale
6704 Kauai King Trl$324,900$2122025-12-3019871,534Resale
6632 Tim Tam Trl$270,000$1712025-12-1219891,578Resale
3248 Black Gold Trl$335,000$2022025-11-2619791,661Resale
6842 Hill Gail Trl$290,000$2292025-11-1719881,266Resale
6609 Tomy Lee Trl$299,000$2222025-11-1319881,344Resale
5281 Pimlico Dr$470,000$2462025-10-2219871,910Resale
6701 Tim Tam Trl$405,000$2132025-10-2119861,901Resale
6433 Kingman Trl$320,000$1932025-10-1619791,660Resale
2964 Whirlaway Trl$275,000$2262025-10-0319831,216Resale
3512 Whirlaway Trl$402,500$1822025-09-0519782,207Resale
5313 Ben Brush Trl$371,000$1652025-08-2819852,242Resale
6842 Tomy Lee Trl$278,000$1862025-08-2219811,498Resale
2903 Whirlaway Trl$330,000$2002025-08-1119891,650Resale
3231 Gallant Fox Trl$385,000$1632025-07-3119792,357Resale
3204 Gallant Fox Trl$345,000$2142025-07-3120041,609Resale
6416 Dancers Image Trl$315,000$2152025-07-2319781,468Resale
6557 Alan A Dale Trl$349,900$2052025-07-0319881,703Resale
6812 Hill Gail Trl$290,000$2252025-07-0119841,287Resale
6528 Montrose Trl$300,000$2382025-06-3019811,260Resale
6427 Count Turf Trl$329,000$1872025-06-3019771,758Resale
3314 Lucky Debonair Trl$320,000$1892025-06-2520021,696Resale
6847 Donerail Trl$300,000$2072025-06-2319801,446Resale
3224 Lord Murphy Trl$345,000$2462025-06-1620041,402Resale
6815 Tomy Lee Trl$275,000$2302025-06-1219851,195Resale
6152 Pimlico Ct$695,000$2172025-06-1119853,201Resale
6447 Joe Cotton Trl$342,500$2222025-06-0919891,545Resale
2912 Gallahadion Ct$370,000$2252025-06-0319841,646Resale
6440 Dancers Image Trl$360,000$1912025-06-0319891,881Resale
3228 Black Gold Trl$307,500$1922025-05-2319781,598Resale
6609 Tomy Lee Trl$210,000$1562025-05-1419881,344Resale
6716 Tim Tam Trl$324,900$2262025-04-2919861,440Resale
6808 Hill Gail Trl$335,000$2792025-04-2419851,200Resale
6928 Tomy Lee Trl$315,000$2302025-03-2719881,371Resale
3267 Lord Murphy Trl$356,000$2302025-03-1819871,548Resale
3204 Lord Murphy Trl$350,000$2282025-02-2819841,534Resale
6715 Kauai King Trl$360,000$2422025-02-2719941,490Resale
6447 Cavalcade Trl$307,500$1742025-02-1919771,764Resale
6416 Bold Venture Trl$275,000$2252025-02-0719801,220Resale
6800 Hill Gail Trl$280,000$2262025-01-3119811,238Resale
6180 Pimlico Ct$530,000$1702025-01-3019903,124Resale
6663 Kingman Trl$359,900$2472025-01-2419791,460Resale
3012 Pink Star Ct$329,000$2362025-01-2419851,396Resale
4987 Pimlico Dr$350,000$2092024-12-1619881,676Resale
6412 Count Turf Trl$172,500$1082024-12-1319771,604Resale
6431 Count Turf Trl$319,000$2192024-12-1219771,458Resale
6823 Hill Gail Trl$315,000$2202024-12-0419891,432Resale
6684 Kingman Trl$350,000$2132024-11-1519931,644Resale
6644 Kingman Trl$371,500$2012024-11-0820081,844Resale
6420 Cavalcade Trl$315,000$2242024-11-0719861,406Resale
3072 Whirlaway Trl$330,000$2292024-10-2319881,440Resale
6444 Joe Cotton Trl$292,500$2102024-10-0319811,392Resale
3345 Lucky Debonair Trl$269,900$1892024-09-1319861,431Resale

I hope (you know who) got your answer to why there are “so many homes for sale in Killearn Acres.” And I hope our readers got a little understanding of just how seriously we study Killearn Acres and all the neighborhoods in the Tallahassee real estate market. We need this information in order to provide the most sound advice possible when it comes time to selling a home or buying a home in Tallahassee.

If you are planning to move, we INVITE YOU to sit and discuss your goals and dreams and show you how we can save you money by applying our superior knowledge of the housing market in Tallahassee.

Related Posts