In Search Of The Housing Market Turn ... 31 Times Over
As I was assembling all of the charts, graphs and analysis of the Tallahassee housing market this past weekend, I had a very strong suspicion that I wasn't going to find good news. I had already performed a preliminary analysis by downloading January sales from the Tallahassee Board of REALTORs Multiple Listing Service (MLS), and the early prognosis was not what I was seeking.
As we have covered many times in the past, the key to finding the turn in the Tallahassee housing market is getting our inventory levels back down below 6.0 months of supply. Since we are double that now, the turn is not going to happen really soon. But prior to the turn of the market, there will be some other tell-tale signs that it is within our reach this year...
Fewer Homes For Sale In Tallahassee
This is the first step in the turn, seeing inventory reduce. As you can tell from the real estate graph below, we are seeing the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee drop. We have been tracking Tallahassee home inventory levels at The Market Bulletin for nearly a year now, so it is always an excellent resource for Tallahassee real estate statistics.
Here, though it is a bit busy, we can see that all but the short-term trend are still for reducing inventory. The 270 Day trend (red line) shows that we have lowered inventory by 1,000 homes in the past 9 months!
Year Over Year Trend Declines
We have seen 31 straight months of declines in the year over year comparisons (ie. January 2009 declined compared to January 2008). Obviously, a Tallahassee housing market turn cannot begin until we see a few of the months go in the favor of a recovery.
This is the one real estate graph that I expect to see improvement on a few times in 2009. Call me an optimist, but I just don't see every month this year doing worse than last year. Finally, we have a graph that shows how much this inventory weighs on the market.
The sales at the bottom (green line) are nearly diminished by the current supply of homes in Tallahassee (red line). The months of supply are the blue vertical columns.
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