Tallahassee Real Estate BlogRecently posted or modified blog posts by tag - Tallahassee Home Saleshttps://www.manausa.com/blog/Copyright Manausa.com2020-06-17T22:00:25-07:00tag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:4137Lower Prices Drive Golden Eagle Home SalesWhen you look at the list of 484 Golden Eagle home sales at <a title="List of recent Golden Eagle home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/golden-eagle-home-sale/" target="_blank">the bottom of this article</a>, you might be confused into believing a clearance sale was conducted.
It just doesn't seem that long ago that the "average" home in Golden Eagle Plantation was worth about $500,000, but today's prices all seem to begin with a "3."
So let's take a look at our quarterly <a title="Golden Eagle Home Sales Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/results/" target="_blank">Golden Eagle Home Sales Report</a> to see what has homebuyers so excited.
Rising Golden Eagle Home Sales
<a title="Lake Front Home In Golden Eagle Plantation" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/results/"><img class=" img_box_right" title="Lake Front Home In Golden Eagle Plantation" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Home-for-sale-in-Golden-Eagle-Plantation.png" alt="Home for sale in Golden Eagle Plantation" width="228" height="293" /></a>The number of <a title="Tallahassee MLS listings of Golden Eagle Home For Sale" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">homes for sale in Golden Eagle Plantation</a> currently stands at 43, but at these low prices you are going to see them go to contract must faster in 2013 than we did in 2012.
The following real estate graph shows that distressed sales are still near an all time high in Golden Eagle Plantation, and I suspect they are having a great influence on <a title="Home values in Golden Eagle Plantation" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/results/" target="_blank">home values in this popular Northeast Tallahassee golfing community</a>.
<a title="Golden Eagle Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Golden-Eagle-Home-Sales.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Golden Eagle Home Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Golden-Eagle-Home-Sales.png" alt="Golden Eagle Home Sales" width="534" height="363" /></a>
The vertical green and red bars (stacked, measured on the left vertical axis) record arms length and <a title="Get The Best Buy List For Tallahassee Real Estate" href="https://www.manausa.com/distressed-property/" target="_blank">distressed home sales</a> in Golden Eagle respectively. The red line shows the percentage of distressed sales to overall home sales, and right now it's at about 23 % for the past twelve months.
When we ignore the distressed sales and just focus on <a title="Definition of arms length in real estate" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/arms-length-definition/" target="_blank">arms length home sales</a> in Golden Eagle, we see that the weight of the distressed property sales has been pulling values down. In fact, current values are lower today than they were a year ago, though the trend appears to be stabilizing somewhat.
<a title="Golden Eagle Home Values" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Golden-Eagle-Home-Values.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Golden Eagle Home Values" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Golden-Eagle-Home-Values.png" alt="Golden Eagle Home Values" width="534" height="365" /></a>
The Golden Eagle home value trend was the same in May as it was in May 2004, running right at $134 per <a title="How to use square feet in home valuations" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/how-to-use-square-feet-in-home-valuations/" target="_blank">square foot</a> of heated and cooled space. When you contrast that with the $181 per square foot recorded in August 2007, you have to wonder how many more Golden Eagle home owners are trapped in a home with a mortgage far larger than the value of the property.
If you are thinking about selling a home in Golden Eagle and are wondering about timing and pricing, just <a title="Contact Joe Manausa about a Golden Eagle Home Sale" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/drop-joe-a-note/" target="_blank">drop me a note</a> and we can schedule a time to review your home and help you implement the best plan to sell your home.
<a name="sales"></a>
Recent 484 Golden Eagle Home Sales
{si-table-id=6}2013-06-07T07:55:00-07:002017-06-29T05:06:52-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3751January Home Sales Up 91% For Joe Manausa Real Estate Manausa And AssociatesNews reports from around the Country report that January home sales are up over last year.
Of course, it is too early for them (and me) to have solid numbers for January, so I've decided to compare our January home sales from 2013 with our recent past January home sales.
As the <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of January Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">real estate graph</a> above shows, the results were very positive!
January Home Sales Volume Up 242% Over January 2012
The graph below shows even stronger results. Joe Manausa Real Estate recorded new contracts last month exceeding $8M, smashing the records of every other month going back to 2009.
<a title="January Home Sales Volume" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales-Volume.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="January Home Sales Volume" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales-Volume.png" alt="January Home Sales Volume" width="546" height="312" /></a>
While this is only anecdotal evidence of a stronger market (we are growing and have added some <a title="Great Realtors record strong January home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/agents/276/joe-manausa/" target="_blank">great real estate agents</a> in the past few months), it nevertheless is a positive signal for the market.
January Home Sales Record
If you saw our recent post about <a title="Mixed Trends For Real Estate In Tallahassee From January Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/real-estate-in-tallahassee-mixed-trends/" target="_blank">mixed trends reported for January home sales</a>, then you know that new contracts (new contracts are measured in the graphs above as well) were shown to be on the decline.
Our rapidly growing sales do not support the decline being reported in the <a title="Homes for sale in Tallahassee Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee MLS</a>, and it will take another 60 days to see if my hunch about the cause of <a title="Why Homes Take Longer To Sell In The Tallahassee MLS" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/the-tallahassee-mls/" target="_blank">declining contracts in the Tallahassee MLS</a> was correct.
Regardless of what is going on for the rest of the Tallahassee real estate market, I will say that I am very proud of the real estate agents and support staff in our office.
We averaged more than 3 new contracts per person in January, which is equivalent to one half of the annual production for our average competitor.
Need To Sell A Home In Tallahassee?
If you are considering a move for 2013, we would love to sit down and discuss your options. Our results for January are indicative of the hard work and great service you will find from all the people in our company.
And if you have a home to sell, please <a title="Contact Joe Manausa about selling a home in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/drop-joe-a-note/" target="_blank">drop me a note</a> to schedule a time for us to discuss how we can help you achieve the same success as we delivered with our January home sales.2013-02-01T08:47:00-07:002017-06-30T01:44:45-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3696Tallahassee Home Sales Rise 20% Since Market BottomYesterday's blog post identified a serious problem regarding demand in the housing market, so I thought I would follow-up with a silver-lining report which reveals Tallahassee home sales have risen 20% since the bottom of the housing market.
This is far from a <a title="Is This Really What A Housing Recovery Looks Like?" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/what-a-housing-recovery-looks-like/" target="_blank">housing market recovery</a>, but rising 20% from the bottom is certainly a step in the right direction.
In the <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of Tallahassee home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">real estate graph</a> above, we observe that Tallahassee home sales have risen 8% since this time last year, and a full 20% since August 2009 when we recorded a market bottom for the number of homes sold in Tallahassee each day.
Tallahassee Home Sales Rise
When we "zoom out" from the image seen above, the following graph can be created.
Note how the yellow gold line shows the normal amount of closed home sales each day, thus our 20% recovery is only a small portion of the growth that is needed to help restore balance between supply and demand for the <a title="MLS Listings Of Tallahassee Houses" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">homes for sale in Tallahassee</a>.
<a title="Tallahassee Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee Home Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales.png" alt="Tallahassee Home Sales" width="560" height="411" /></a>
The one year trend of daily closed <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/inventory-07-2010/" target="_blank">home sales in Tallahassee</a> has broken the "7 homes per day" productivity level for the first time since 2010. In fact, had it not been for the Homebuyer Tax Credit in 2010, this would likely be a four-year high.
Historical Tallahassee Home Sales Were Much Higher
This Tallahassee home sales report is positive because it shows growth from the demand side of the supply and demand imbalance. But don't let that fool you into believe that <a title="Real estate appreciation in Tallahassee home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/real-estate-appreciation/" target="_blank">real estate appreciation</a> is right around the corner.
The increased demand is wonderful, but demand is still a far cry from the levels needed to work through the glut of homes in the <a title="Tallahassee home sales inventory" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/forgotten-real-estate-inventory/" target="_blank">forgotten inventory and shadow inventory of homes</a>.
<a title="Home Values – Is This As Low As We Go?" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/home-values-low/" target="_blank">Home values</a> will decline for years, and smart home sellers will take the time to assess the specific market for their homes in order to establish their <a title="Sell a home in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/progressive-marketing-plan-for-your-home/" target="_blank">best plan for selling a home</a>.
If you would like to see how a best-price analysis can put money in your pocket when you sell your home, just <a title="Contact Joe Manausa about Tallahassee home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/drop-joe-a-note/" target="_blank">drop me a note</a> and we can schedule a time to review how your specific house has been affected by recent Tallahassee home sales.2012-11-27T08:27:00-07:002017-06-29T06:00:41-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3654YTD Tallahassee Home Sales Rise 5% Above 2011Tallahassee home sales are finally on the rise, with 2012 now better than any year since 2008.
In fact, Tallahassee home sales are up 5% over 2011, and we are seeing signs that we should finish the year up even better.
Tallahassee Home Sales Stronger In 2012
When we look at the real estate graph below, we see that Tallahassee home sales through September are up marginally over the three previous years. The benefit of studying a year-to-date graph is that each year shows the same periods of time.
<a title="Tallahassee Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee Home Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales.png" alt="Tallahassee Home Sales" width="530" height="327" /></a>
The blue lines in the graph above record all home sales in the <a title="Homes for sale in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee MLS</a> from January.
Home values (shown in red and measure in price per square foot) have declined just under 3% from last year, continuing the depreciation trend that began in Tallahassee back in 2008.
Tallahassee Home Sales Rise On Distressed Property Growth
<a title="Weekly Real Estate Report About Tallahassee Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank"><img class=" img_box_left" title="Weekly Real Estate Report About Tallahassee House Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Weekly-Real-Estate-Report-225x300.png" alt="Weekly Real Estate Report About Tallahassee House Sales" width="137" height="183" /></a>Unfortunately, the majority of the growth in Tallahassee home sales comes from short sales, foreclosures, and bank owned properties.
If you <a title="Real Estate Weekly Special Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/downloads/Tallahassee-Real-Estate-Weekly-Special-10-1-2012.pdf?d9c344" target="_blank">read this morning's weekly special report</a>, then you know distressed properties are the fastest growing segment of the Tallahassee real estate market and currently represent more than 35% of the properties closed in 2012.
We know this segment of the market will continue to grow in 2013, and our report covers what this strengthening market dynamic means for people who want to sell their homes in a traditional manner.
The key is to understand the market for your specific home, and how <a title="Short sales and foreclosures in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/distressed-property/" target="_blank">all the distressed properties for sale in Tallahassee</a> are going to affect your ability to sell.
If you are thinking about <a title="The Definitive Resource On How To Sell A House" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/how-to-sell-a-house/" target="_blank">selling a home in Tallahassee</a> and want to know how you can gain a competitive advantage, you should use our complete market analysis for your home.
In order to do so, simply <a title="Contact Joe Manausa about Tallahassee home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/drop-joe-a-note/" target="_blank">drop me a note</a> and we can schedule a time to review your specific situation and see how your home will compete among other Tallahassee home sales.2012-10-01T09:42:00-07:002017-06-30T08:31:24-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3645Recent Home Sales Report Will Bring A Smile To Your FaceAs I was compiling information for yesterday's <a title="Subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter</a>, I could not help but [cautiously] smile at the pending home sales report.
While the Tallahassee real estate market has a long, long way to go to return to normal, it is nice to see the first real long-term positive trend since 2005. Yes, 2005.
Daily Closed Home Sales Show Long-Term Improvement
Of course, growth in pending contracts (the number of homes under contract in the Tallahassee MLS) means nothing if they do not result in an increase in home sales. Fortunately, they have.
In the <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">real estate graph</a> below, we see that daily closed home sales in Tallahassee have been (very slightly) on the rise since the first quarter of last year.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Daily-Closed-Home-Sales.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Daily Closed Home Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Daily-Closed-Home-Sales.png" alt="Daily Closed Home Sales" width="560" height="408" /></a>
While there was a positive trend back in 2009/2010, I don't consider that a "real" one as it was created with a government stimulus, and it came to a crashing end when the stimulus ended.
Our current trend has only shown about an 8% growth in home sales, and though we need much, much more, steady growth is truly a positive sign.
Daily Pending Home Sales Show Even Greater Improvement
The graph below showing pending home sales is the one that brought the smile to my face. The trend of new contracts is rising, and we are even beginning to approach the level attained with the <a title="Government Stimulus is not the solution to real estate market woes" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/mortgage-relief-plan/" target="_blank">failed government stimulus plan</a>.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales.png"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Pending Home Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales.png" alt="Pending House Sales" width="560" height="409" /></a>
It appears as if 2012 will produce more home sales than last year, and hopefully we will take this momentum into the future. The gains have been nice, but they are still far too minor to change this market overnight.
As the <a title="Signs Of Housing Improvement In Tallahassee, FL MSA" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tallahassee-fl-msa/" target="_blank">Tallahassee housing market continues to see increased buyer activity</a>, we will finally see a diminishing of the inventory problems that have plagued us for more than 7 years.
And if you want to know how this change in home sales will affect your ability to sell your home, just <a title="Contact Joe Manausa about home sales in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/drop-joe-a-note/" target="_blank">drop me a note</a> and we can review your very specific situation.2012-09-18T07:47:00-07:002017-06-30T18:20:34-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2254Tallahassee Home Sales Still Near Market BottomThe number of home selling in Tallahassee is very close to reaching the same as market bottom level that was found in August 2009. The real estate graph below shows the 365 day trend of closed home sales in the <a title="Homes for sale in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee MLS</a> is approaching just 6 per day.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee Home Sales" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales.gif" alt="Tallahassee Home Sales" width="600" height="436" /></a>
We use the 365 trend in order to remove all effects of the seasonal changes that happen at different times of the year. Therefore, any change in the graph above represents a true change in the movement of the Tallahassee housing market.
The message is clear if you have to <a title="How To Sell A Home in 2011" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/progressive-marketing-plan-for-your-home/" target="_blank">sell a home in Tallahassee</a>. The market is slowing and competition is getting stiffer for the few buyers in the market. Either choose to sell, or plan to wait the market out for the next 5 to 7 years.2011-08-13T15:55:00-07:002017-06-29T03:42:08-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3295NAR: Home Sales Are Slipping<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/663/image/NAR_-Home-sales-are-slipping.png" width="880" height="597" />
Every month I like to read the National Association of REALTORS® Existing <a title="Home Sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/">Home Sales</a> Report to see how Lawrence Yun is going to positively interpret the data being reported from all the US housing markets. Last month he blamed the weather, this month apparently the problems were due to contract cancellations. Regardless, he is still quite certain that we are in the midst of a housing recovery.
<a title="Yun Says Real Estate Market Downturn Is Temporary" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/real-estate-market-temporary/" target="_blank">Lawrence Yun</a>, NAR chief economist, said this is an uneven recovery. “Home sales had been trending up without a tax stimulus, but a variety of issues are weighing on the market including an unusual spike in contract cancellations in the past month,” he said.
I wish Dr. Yun would finally spend a little time talking about the "variety of issues," as these are the real story for US home sales.
Supply And Demand Rule Home Sales
You don't have to have a PhD to understand that supply and demand dictate value movement in any market, even home sales. There have been several reports that the NAR uses incorrect methods to estimate overall home sales, thus their recent report of a 9.5 month of supply is highly suspect. In Tallahassee (which is usually moves in line with the US markets), our 13.5 months of supply of homes is measured daily by my office. If we take the entire North Central Florida area into consideration, the supply is nearly 19 months!
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Real-Estate-Supply-And-Demand-Tallahassee.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Real Estate Supply And Demand Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Real-Estate-Supply-And-Demand-Tallahassee.gif" alt="Home Sales | Real Estate Supply And Demand Tallahassee" width="600" height="616" /></a>
The information in the real estate graph above was taken from the <a title="Homes for sale in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee MLS</a> and shows the current number of listings (red) and the trend of home sales (green), and produces the months of supply (purple). This is not the picture of a housing market recovery.
Demand Is Hampering Home Sales
The "variety of issues" with the real estate market fall mostly on the demand side. But unlike Yun's blame of weather and contract cancellations, I think the problem is far easier to define and much harder to repair. To show this in a simple graph, all we need to do is take data right from the NAR Existing Home Sales Report:
First-time buyers purchased 31 percent of homes in June, down from 36 percent in May; they were 43 percent in June 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors accounted for 19 percent of purchase activity in June, unchanged from May; they were 13 percent in June 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were a 50 percent market share in June, up from 45 percent in May, which appears to be a normal seasonal gain.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Where-Homebuyers-Come-From.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Where Homebuyers Come From" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Where-Homebuyers-Come-From.gif" alt="Home Sales | Where Homebuyers Come From" width="483" height="376" /></a>Let's assume for the sake of simplicity that this dissection of home buyers is accurate for most US housing markets. One half of all home sales comes from buyers who must first <a title="Internet Home Selling Plan" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/progressive-marketing-plan-for-your-home/" target="_blank">sell a home</a>. Home values have declined 30% and are still declining, thus one-half of our buyers have seen their equity vanish. And isn't it that equity that would be used to buy the next home?
The "variety of issues" that Yun mentions should be restated as "one half of our buyers are trapped in their current homes and cannot enter the market to fulfill their roles as buyers!" Not coincidentally, Tallahassee home sales are currently closing at 53% of the rate that we would normally expect to see.
And the problem is getting worse, not better. Falling demand will only create more pricing pressures and the volume of short sales in the housing market is on the rise. Home sales will continue on the current trend until the market pushes through several more years of distressed properties selling at falling prices. As prices fall, more homeowners move to a negative equity position (meaning they owe more on the home than it is worth). If prices fall another 10%, that could represent as much as another 25% of homeowners move to an upside-down position.
From what I read, somewhere between 40% and 50% of all US <a title="How Far Under Water Is The Tallahassee Housing Market?" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/house-under-water/" target="_blank">homeowners owe more on their home than it is worth</a>. It is safe to assume that we will surpass the 50% mark in most markets by this time next year. So what is going to happen to home sales?
Short Sales Must Cure The Housing Market
<a title="Should I Short Sale My Home" href="https://help.manausa.com/should-i-short-sale-my-home-2/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><img class=" img_box_left" title="Should I Short Sale My Home E Book " src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Should-I-Short-Sale-My-Home-E-Book-300x430.gif" alt="Should I Short Sale My Home E Book" width="179" height="256" /></a>Banks are starting to get it. Short sales are "going through the system" at an easier pace than we have seen in the past. It is the best solution for home sellers and a quick way for banks to reduce their load of loans that exceed the value of the pledged asset. With such a large inventory of negative equity homeowners, the short sale is now an acceptable solution for all sellers, even ones with perfect credit and current payment records.
I suspect short sales will be the dominant force for home sales for the next three years (and perhaps even longer). It will help the market churn through the supply of homes that need to be sold and will allow homeowners to "move on." I have included a <a title="Home Sales Will Be Dominated By Short Sales" href="https://help.manausa.com/should-i-short-sale-my-home-2/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">link to my 86 page e-book on short sales</a> and encourage all homeowners to read it through, as it will prepare the reader for a home sales process that is saving people tens of thousands of dollars every day.<br /><br />Your Local Expert In Tallahassee
Do you have a question on the Tallahassee real estate market? If so, you can leave a comment below, give us a call at (850) 366-8917, or <a href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/drop-joe-a-note/">drop us a note</a> and we'll give you the local information needed to ensure a successful, smooth transaction.
As a local born and raised in Tallahassee with a focus on customer service, I promise you'll find great success when working with Joe Manausa Real Estate, just as have our past customers. You can read thousands of their reviews reported on Google, Facebook and Zillow right here: <a href="https://www.manausa.com/testimonials">Real Estate Agent Reviews Tallahassee</a>.
<img alt="The digital marketing guide for small businesses" title="The Business Of Getting Business" src="https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/T2Ej7dVdr0ipHSCswktYIaL_YkB2qypNatAjA8d5puLofwW3WV0xC60KERo-LrZ37YXLbH5md91qvLMpqs6T9WbR2Bzr03THahDe7-ybiA-oP_QrZZU0wgkB1Pwn_HkRvU6r2R_v" width="120" height="188" />Have you heard about my new book "The Business of Getting Business?" It's a comprehensive guide for small businesses to help them make the move to digital. For those of us who want to survive and thrive in a world where large corporations are taking over, it is a must-read. It's also the perfect guide for how to sell a home in the digital age. You can go to <a href="https://jmre.ws/a77gy">Amazon</a> (a trusted digital retailer) to get a copy delivered directly to your home.2011-07-28T09:07:00-07:002020-04-09T11:49:51-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3259MLS In Tallahassee Reports Ominous SignsThere has never been a tougher time to <a title="Home Selling Plan That Works" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/progressive-marketing-plan-for-your-home/" target="_blank">sell a home in Tallahassee</a>, and there are ominous signs from the MLS in Tallahassee (the REALTOR® Mulitple Listing Service) that show things are getting worse. The four following real estate graphs paint an ominous picture for the coming months in the Tallahassee real estate market, and home sellers are warned. Sell your home now, sell it fast, and don't look back.
Note: This report of the MLS in Tallahassee shows current trends and is important information for home sellers. You can also follow this link to search all of the <a title="MLS in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">homes for sale in Tallahassee</a>.
Pending Home Sales Ratio Flip Flops
When the <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee housing market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/inventory-07-2010/" target="_blank">real estate market in Tallahassee</a> is stable, we see a relationship between closed home sales and new contracts (pending home sales) that does not waiver greatly. This relationship usually bounces around 70%, meaning the number of closed home sales usually hovers around 70% of the current pending contracts. But when the market fell to the floor beginning in 2007, this ratio changed greatly. And now it is happening again.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales-Ratio.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Pending Home Sales Ratio" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales-Ratio.gif" alt="Pending Home Sales Ratio" width="600" height="483" /></a>
In the real estate graph above from the MLS in Tallahassee, we see that the ratio of closed sales to pending home sales (red line in graph) is on the rise again. This last happened at the end of the boom market in 2006, and it lead to a new market bottom in 2009. Currently, this ratio is near 100% and looks to be heading higher, indicating that the trend of closed home sales is heading for a further decline.
Relative Supply Of Homes Is Rising
Our normal review of the inventory situation shows that the relative supply of homes has exceed 18 months again and is rising. We measure the relative supply as the amount of homes for sale in the MLS in Tallahassee (months of supply of homes measured at the current rate of demand).
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-MLS-Graph.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee MLS Graph" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-MLS-Graph.gif" alt="Tallahassee MLS Graph" width="600" height="616" /></a>
The market bottom that was established in August 2009 looks to be challenged before year's end, and all the signs point to this as a foregone conclusion. The market is clearly cooling, and home sellers can expect that competition for the very few buyers in the market is only going to get stronger.
Pending Home Sales Trends Negative
We looked at <a title="Home Sales Continue Summer Slide" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/home-sales-continue-summer-slide/" target="_blank">pending home sales for Tallahassee</a> alone in yesterday's real estate market report, but today's graph shows the year over year pending home sales trends for the entire MLS in Tallahassee. It shows four straight months of year over year declines, as well as three consecutive months of seasonal declines, which is very abnormal for this time of year.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales-Trends.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Pending Home Sales Trends" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales-Trends.gif" alt="Pending Home Sales Trends" width="600" height="508" /></a>
Normally, the summer months sees a great increase in the number of pending home sales, but the yellow area in the graph above shows that we are heading in an opposite direction of our normal home selling season.
Sales To Listing Ratio Picture
The final graph that we have to view is the home sales to listing ration. Normally, we like to see home sales run at about double the listing inventory (representing 6 months of supply). Most markets see traditional appreciation levels when this occurs. But we are not seeing this now.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Home-Sales-To-Listings-Ratio.gif"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Home Sales To Listings Ratio" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Home-Sales-To-Listings-Ratio.gif" alt="Home Sales To Listings Ratio" width="600" height="436" /></a>
In the real estate graph above, we can see examples of a great home sales to listing ratio (2003 to 2006) and then the opposite (2007 through present). The green line in the graph shows the one year home sales trend, and it is running at least 1,000 units per year to low. This decline in demand is the single greatest problem in the housing market, and without these buyers, home sellers are in for a tough ride.2011-06-16T07:41:00-07:002017-06-30T09:32:57-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2606Pending Home Sales SluggishThe most obvious way to predict future home sales would be to take a look at the list of homes that are under contract and waiting for closing. These are what we refer to as “Pending Home Sales” and we can track them on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/">MLS</a>.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales-Graph.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Pending Home Sales Graph" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Pending-Home-Sales-Graph.jpg" alt="Pending Home Sales Graph Image" width="600" height="437" /></a>
The real estate graph above shows the one-year trend of pending home sales, so the changes that we see are not due to the annual seasonality in any way (every point on the graph contains a full 365 days worth of information). With the tax credit ending as a stimulant to new pending home sales, this report unfortunately is showing instant feedback. Beginning with the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, home sales have fallen and reached a new low on November 13, 2010.
<a title="See homes before they come on to the market - Be the first one to see them" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/coming-soon-homes-for-sale/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><img class=" img_box_right" title="Coming Soon Listings" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Coming-Soon-Listings.gif" alt="Coming Soon Listings Image" width="200" height="150" /></a>Since November 13th, we first saw a steady rise, but then the housing market has cooled to what appears to be a bumpy bottom.
Future home closings had been on the decline but appear to be stabilizing. The graph below shows that daily closed home sales might be trying to move higher and perhaps have staved off establishing a new market bottom!
The resurging market ran like gang busters from mid November until late in January, but since then we have seen a slightly downward trend in new contracts in the <a title="Map based property search tool Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tallahassee MLS</a>. I am hoping that much of this is just a reflection of the upcoming anniversary of the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, where last year’s sales were stimulated through the end of April.2011-03-26T06:20:00-07:002017-06-30T20:09:48-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:21412010 Home Sales AnalysisWith 20 years of home sales data to review, it is sad to see that 2010 surpassed 2009 as the worst year on record.
What makes this even worse than what we can see in the <a title="Charts, graphs and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/inventory-07-2010/" target="_blank">real estate graphs</a> below is that our population is roughly 20% larger today than it was in 1991.
<img class=" img_box_center" title="YTD Home Sales In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/YTD-e1295362641759.jpg" alt="YTD Home Sales Graph In Tallahassee" width="600" height="503" />
The relative drop in the market is far worse than the real drop that we see. With a larger local population, there should be more people that need to move, thus recent years would have more home sales than previous ones if there were not market cycles involved.
But market cycles are certainly involved. The surge of home sales from 2002 through 2006 is quite evident in both graphs, and the subsequent drop is just the market correcting itself to the sustainable <a title="Current rate of home sales" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tag/housing-report/" target="_blank">rate of home sales</a> that we have seen in the past.
<img class=" img_box_center" title="Year To Date Single Family Home Sales In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/sf.jpg" alt="Year To Date Single Family Home Sales Graph In Tallahassee" width="631" height="576" />2011-01-23T10:55:00-07:002017-06-30T05:41:33-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3008The Mother Of All Real Estate Reports v. III learned a long time ago that a picture is worth 1,000 words, so today's "Mother of All Real Estate Reports v. II" will be mostly graphical in nature. For detailed analysis of individual graphs, you are welcome to visit the <a title="Charts, graphs and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tag/housing-report/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Housing Report</a> for an in-depth and current study of the Tallahassee real estate market.
Yesterday's real estate report on <a title="recent homes sold in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tag/housing-report/" target="_blank">Pending Home Sales in Tallahassee</a> showed that the market is in a significant decline since the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, but we have so many more graphs of the market that can show us how things are compared to how they have been.
Residential Sales Trends In Tallahassee
This first real estate graph shows that the average home price has dropped, but more importantly, the number of homes selling each month is lower than at any time going back to 1991!
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Residential-Sales-Trends-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Residential Sales Trends In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Residential-Sales-Trends-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Residential Sales Trends In Tallahassee" width="600" height="517" /></a>
Average Prices For Residential Properties In Tallahassee
When we look at the average price report for <a title="Map based search engine for homes for sale in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee homes</a>, we see that the biggest change is in what home builders are doing. Look how the blue line has dropped to adapt to what home buyers are buying.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Average-Prices-For-Real-Estate-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Average Prices For Real Estate In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Average-Prices-For-Real-Estate-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Average Prices For Real Estate In Tallahassee" width="600" height="554" /></a>
Single Family Home Prices
When we look at single family detached homes as an isolated group, we can see that the average price has gone from $222K to $187K. Some people in real estate would tell you this is THE <a title="How To Measure Real Estate Depreciation" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/measure-real-estate-depreciation/" target="_blank">measurement of depreciation</a>, but is it?
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Single-Family-Detached-Home-Prices-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Single Family Detached Home Prices In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Single-Family-Detached-Home-Prices-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Single Family Detached Home Prices In Tallahassee" width="600" height="548" /></a>
Average Real Estate Prices In Tallahassee
The next real estate graph shows that for the most part, average real estate prices are dropping. But notice how the average condo/townhome price is rising! Could this have something to do with the <a title="100% Financed Luxury Condos in Downtown Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/results/" target="_blank">downtown condo market in Tallahassee</a>?
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Average-Real-Estate-Prices-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Average Real Estate Prices In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Average-Real-Estate-Prices-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Average Real Estate Prices In Tallahassee" width="600" height="547" /></a>
<a name="lots"></a>
Tallahassee Lot And Land Sales Continue Decline
Lot and land sales have been hurting since the demand for new homes is so low. With our glut of homes not easing, the need for residential lots is many years off. I don't expect the slide of land prices to end anytime soon.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Lot-and-Land-Sales-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Lot and Land Sales In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Lot-and-Land-Sales-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Lot and Land Sales In Tallahassee" width="600" height="512" /></a>
Year Over Year Home Sales Report
After recent gains in the year over year home sales report, July posted a "no big surprises here" decline of 19%. We expected to see a decline with the end of the <a title="Homebuyer Tax Credit Has Ended" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/home-buyer-tax-credit/" target="_blank">Homebuyer Tax Credit</a>, which had helped create a run of 6 of the past 7 months as year over year gains.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Year-Over-Year-Home-Sales-Report.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee Year Over Year Home Sales Report" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Year-Over-Year-Home-Sales-Report.jpg" alt="Tallahassee Year Over Year Home Sales Report" width="600" height="545" /></a>
Long Term Home Sales Trends
For those of you pure "chartists" out there, the following real estate graph shows long term home sales trends in Tallahassee. The short term trend (one year) is showing growth, but the five and ten year trends are in declines.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Long-Term-Home-Sales-Trends-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Long Term Home Sales Trends In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Long-Term-Home-Sales-Trends-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Long Term Home Sales Trends In Tallahassee" width="600" height="518" /></a>
New Home Sales Versus Existing Home Sales
One graph that really shows the plight of home builders right now is the Average Monthly Home Sales Activity Report. The blue section of the real estate graph below represents new home sales, while the red measures the trend of existing home sales. As a ratio, it is the worst that new home builders have experienced during my 20 years in the business.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Average-Monthly-Home-Sales-Activity-In-Tallahassee.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Average Monthly Home Sales Activity In Tallahassee" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Average-Monthly-Home-Sales-Activity-In-Tallahassee.jpg" alt="Average Monthly Home Sales Activity In Tallahassee" width="600" height="518" /></a>
The Mother Of All Real Estate Reports
Time for some reader feedback. If you like this style of blog post (like to see one or two each month), let me know in the comments section below. If I don't get any/many comments, I'll figure not many people made it this far and it is not their cup of tea!2010-08-10T08:46:00-07:002017-07-01T03:03:49-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2970Home Sales Negotiation 101<a title="Top Home Sales Negotiation Expert" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Top-real-estate-negotiator.jpg"><img class=" img_box_right" title="Top Home Sales Negotiation Expert" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Top-real-estate-negotiator.jpg" alt="Top Home Sales Negotiation Expert" width="242" height="297" /></a>Understanding how to triumph in home sales negotiation should be simple to understand, but I find that is not always so.
If I were to ask 100 home buyers "how much are you willing to pay for the home," when they found the right home to buy, most would give me an answer that would work against them. The purpose of this post is to demonstrate for home buyers and home sellers the smartest way to negotiate during a home sale.
Much of my advice on <a title="Winning your home sales negotiation" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/how-to-buy-a-house/">real estate negotiation is counter intuitive</a>, but that is why I believe most people are not very good at it. I believe negotiation is the process two parties use to come to an agreement, but in my experience, most negotiations in real estate start from a position of isolation, where each party ignores the needs and wants of the other.
What is the initial thought of most home owners? "<a title="Home sales negotiation when selling a home" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/sell-a-home/" target="_blank">I'm not going to give my home away</a>;" while each home buyer thinks the opening gambit should be? "Let's start real low, I don't want to overpay for the home!"
Two Key Pieces Of Information Needed To Successfully Negotiate A Home Sale
There are two things each party needs to know if they are going to successfully negotiate a sale of a home (or anything for that matter). They must be knowledgeable on liquidity and they must have a good understanding of value.
Liquidity: This is simply the ability to get a home sold. If hundreds of homes are selling each month in a particular price range, then we know there is ample liquidity and there exists enough competition in the market, both from buyers and sellers, to establish a fair range of values. If too few homes are selling, it is difficult to determine a very tight range of values.
Value Range: The <a title="Find out how much your home is worth matters in home sales negotiation" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">market value of a home</a> is a range of prices in which we know the home will sell, where the low end of the value range will appeal to multiple buyers in the market and thus bring an immediate sale, and the high end of the range is a price that appears to be the top value the home could bring, though it might not occur in an acceptable time frame.
Thinking Through Home Sales Negotiation
We know that the current real estate market is the most lopsided buyers' market that Tallahassee (and the US) has ever seen. There are way too many homes for sale (especially when you consider how many homes are in the shadow inventory), and buyers have all the selection opportunities they could desire.
Knowing this, one might think that homes are selling for a mere fraction of their asking price. Believe it or not, this is not true!
<a title="Real Estate Market Statistics Graph For Home Sales Negotiation" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Real-Estate-Market-Statistics-Graph.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Real Estate Market Statistics Graph For Home Sales Negotiation" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Real-Estate-Market-Statistics-Graph.jpg" alt="Real Estate Market Statistics Graph For Home Sales Negotiation" width="500" height="365" /></a>
In the real estate graph above, we see that over the past year, the median Sales Price to List Price ratio ranged from 95% to 99%. How can this be? We know there is a glut of homes on the market, yet home sellers are getting nearly everything they are asking?
The Simple Truth About Home Sales Negotiation
Here is what most people do not know about the real estate negotiation process. Most home sales situations have enough liquidity that the value range is not hard to figure out. That means a smart negotiator (one who is thinking about the position of the other party) can determine what the other party is going to ultimately do.
For home buyers, this means we know they will have to pay between "X" and "Y" for the home, and for home sellers, this means they will have to take between "X" and "Y" for the home.
How To Win A Home Sales Negotiation
Homebuyer: The best offer from a buyer is one where the seller will be "scared" to lose the buyer and thus will concede to a lower end of the range of values. With this knowledge, a smart buyer is going to <a title="How to write a better offer in real estate in home sales negotiation" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/perfect-home-buying-offer/" target="_blank">write a compelling offer</a>. Knowing that the seller will be getting between "X" and "Y," any offer below "X" will not be compelling and the seller will be forced to counter the offer.
Homeseller: Selecting the <a title="How to determine a home's value for home sales negotiation" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">best asking price for a home</a> is part art, part science. If a home is priced correctly, it is likely to sell for full price (or even higher). This might not seem to make sense, but if a home is the best deal in a market with sufficient liquidity, and it has utilized a great internet marketing plan for total exposure, then a competitive environment will exist for the home.
Paying For A Home Sales Negotiation
The funny thing about real estate is that most of us in the industry pretty much charge the same thing. Those who make more money do so because they are doing more business, not so much because they charge more.
We have roughly 90% of the people in the real estate brokerage business working part-time while the rest are full time. So that makes me wonder ...
If you can get the best for the same price as a "not the best," what is it costing you during the negotiation stage of buying or selling a home? In my experience, the difference is usually more than double the standard charged rate, meaning that working with "not the best" is going to cost a buyer or seller three times what it will cost to work with "the best."
If you are getting ready to sell or buy a home, take the time to make sure you have the <a title="Tallahassee REALTOR Joe Manausa will help you with home sales negotiation" href="https://www.manausa.com/agents/276/joe-manausa/" target="_blank">best home sales negotiation expert</a> in town!
*Joe Manausa Real Estate is a brokerage company headquartered in Tallahassee, Florida. Its unique business model provides specialists to both home sellers and home buyers, and the results speak for themselves. JMRE has significantly more 5-star reviews on google than any other local competitor. Joe Manausa Real Estate is a leader in internet marketing and utilizes search engine optimization, email marketing, social media and data analytics to get their clients’ home sold faster and for more money than any other Tallahassee brokerage firm. For more information, visit <a href="https://www.manausa.com/">www.manausa.com</a> or call us at (850) 366-8917.
2010-06-24T09:36:00-07:002018-02-13T10:26:28-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2921Long Term Home Sales TrendsLast week, we uncovered an interesting methodology that we can use to evaluate long term home sales trends in the <a title="Real Estate Tallahassee Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tallahassee real estate market</a> (or any other market in which you might have an interest). It involved using 20 years worth of housing market data in order to show the 1 year, 5 year, and 10 year moving averages for different metrics that we wanted to measure in the real estate market.
No other measurement is more important than overall <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tag/housing-report/" target="_blank">home sales activity</a>, and we measure this by looking at monthly home sales each month. In the real estate graph below, we have recorded monthly activity along with all of the trends mentioned above.
<a title="Tallahassee Long Term Home Sales Trends" href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Long-Term-Home-Sales-Trends.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee Long Term Home Sales Trends" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Long-Term-Home-Sales-Trends.jpg" alt="Tallahassee Long Term Home Sales Trends" width="590" height="509" /></a>
In the real estate graph above, we have borrowed an analysis process from Wall Street (thanks to long-time reader Steve R.). It has been a common practice for system traders to use technical analysis when trying to determine the future movement of a stock price. Steve suggested we use the same basic principal on the housing market, and the graph above is the result.
In the graph, the yellow dots are each a representation of the number of home sales that occurred during that month, while the lines represent "moving averages" for all of this data. Thus, the one year moving average is the average number of homes sold over the past twelve months, the five year moving average is the average number of homes sold over the past 60 months, etc.
Using Moving Average Crossovers To Analyze Securities
Wall street traders use moving averages to develop simple trading systems based on moving average crossovers. A trading system using two moving averages would give a buy signal when the shorter (faster) moving average advances above the longer (slower) moving average. A sell signal would be given when the shorter moving average crosses below the longer moving average.
The number of crossovers generated will depend on the length of the moving averages. Shorter moving average systems will be faster and generate more crossovers, but they will also generate more false signals than the longer moving averages.
Using Moving Average Crossovers To Analyze Home Sales
In our graph above, the red line is the fastest moving trend, and we see it crosses the five year trend three times, while crossing the ten year trend only once. When it crosses a longer-term trend and goes higher, this is a bullish sign and we can expect home sales to rise. This also suggests a period of great appreciation.
When our one year trend crosses below the longer trends, this is a bearish sign and we will see the number of home sales drop. In the case of a double crossover as we are now experiencing, pricing pressures due to sluggish buyer activity has caused <a title="Real estate depreciation" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/killearn-lakes-2-home-values-analysis/" target="_blank">depreciation in the Tallahassee housing market</a> for the first time since the early 1990s.
Tallahassee Home Sales Forecast
The greatest "positive" that I take from the graph above is that it appears as if the one year trend (red line) has spent enough time below ten year trend (blue line) and using regression toward the mean we should expect fairly continuous growth in the one year moving average for the next several years.
This conclusion also jibes with our findings in the past that <a title="Home Sales And Population Size" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tallahassee-population-change/" target="_blank">link an area's regular home sales to its population size</a>. So expect continued bullish movements in home sales in Tallahassee, and expect another double crossover to occur in a few years or so.2010-04-26T07:52:00-07:002017-06-30T22:55:52-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2908Home Buyers Leave Clues On The Internet<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/663/image/Home_Buyers_Leave_Clues_On_The_Internet.png" width="880" height="597" />
The internet has had a profound effect on the way consumers buy products, and this has definitely reached the real estate market. The recent survey compiled by the National Association of REALTORS showed that <a title="Home buyers are on the internet" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/home-sellers-94-percent-trend/" target="_blank">94% of home buyers</a> used the internet during the purchase of their home indicates that anybody who is trying to sell their home must not only be on the internet, but must also know WHO they are seeking as well as WHEN and WHERE to be waiting for this new generation of home buyer.
Knowing Which Home Buyers To Target
<img class=" img_box_right" title="Home-Buyer-Stages-Explained" alt="" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Home-Buyer-Stages-Explained3.png" width="338" height="275" />Any real estate company that has amassed millions of visitors to their web site can tell you that the traffic metrics are loaded with vitally important information for somebody who wants to sell a home.
Key demographic information can be collected to help determine WHO is attracted to different property types, while pageview data can identify the stage of development in which each home buyer currently exists. In other words, the internet provides us with the information that tells us WHEN buyers are going to be ready and WHERE our featured listings (<a title="Search for homes for sale in the Tallahassee MLS" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">homes for sale</a>) need to be at that time!
Our long-term study of the habits of home buyers on the internet has revealed that there are generally three different categories of home buyers, and each category can be reached using different methods on the internet.
Too Many Sellers Waste Time On The Info Seeker
The first category is made up of what I call “Info Seekers.” These people are generally hard to get meet to view properties, or even go through the home mortgage loan qualification process. However, their traffic is HUGE. Large aggregate sites suck these up and make home sellers think it is critical to be on their sites. That is why most REALTORS have their listings on these sites (present party included) because many home sellers misunderstand what consumers are doing on these sites.
They are people in the very beginning stages of their research about real estate, housing, or a related topic. Also, they may not even be interested in buying a home in the market that they are searching in. They could be a student looking for information to write a report, or a hobbyist, or any number of things.
When a lot of newbies start trying to sell their home online, they want to get as much exposure as possible and think of everything that they can do to get more visitors. This is not always the best plan of attack. Remember, we’re after TARGETED traffic – that’s what will get a home sold!
Not Many Sellers Understand How To Rate Comparison Shoppers
The second category I consider people to be in during the home buying process is “Comparison Shoppers.” The “Comparison Shopper” mentality is someone who is actively looking for a home, but who is not sure exactly which kind they want…or are still trying to determine if they can even qualify for a home.
These shoppers are looking for information about the home buying process. There is a small chance that they will buy during this stage, as they are just getting more in tune with WHAT they should buy and how they will go about it. This type of traffic is particularly valuable to real estate companies because these people will be active home buyers within the next 6 months. The traffic is usually still pretty big and looks very alluring to many home sellers, but in reality, these are low-ranking home buyers because they are not ready to make a decision.
That is why the understanding the comparison shopper mentality is so huge. Many home sellers spend lots of time and money to attract the very people that are not ready to buy their home. You can go after so much of this type of traffic for all sorts of offers and while it generally won’t convert as well as the “buyer” traffic (which is the next prospect category) the traffic it is still VERY big.
Too Many Sellers Miss The Active Buyers
This is by far my favorite kind of ‘home buyer mindset,’ but at the same time it can be the most tedious. These people are the ones with their wallets out, ready to buy what they are looking for. Of course, with the media bashing the real estate market so much, they are looking for EXCEPTIONAL BUYS in a market where the glut of homes is well more than a year's worth of supply.
While the traffic from these home buyers is generally low, they are usually local in nature. They have migrated from the large aggregate sites when they were seeking information and have been pulled to the site that bests gives them everything they are looking for in the destination that they are seeking (like the <a title="Best real estate web site in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee real estate market</a>).
Targeted Exposure Key To Selling Home
Knowing the types of home buyers and where to find them is critical for the home seller who really wants to sell a home. By using targeted exposure techniques, the home seller wanting a sale NOW can focus on the active buyers, instead of getting disappointed with multiple interactions with the info seekers and comparison shoppers.
If you are a home seller ANYWHERE and want to know how to bring targeted exposure to your property, drop us a line and tell us what you are doing and why you think it hasn't worked. We will help you make the change.
Popular Subdivisions In Tallahassee
(All Tallahassee Subdivisions can be found the <a title="Subdivisions and Neighborhoods in Tallahassee Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/category/tallahassee-neighborhoods/" target="_self">Tallahassee Neighborhoods</a> page)
ArticlesHomes For SaleVideos And Reviews
<a title="Articles About Holly Hills Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Holly Hills</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Holly Hills Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Holly Hills</a>
Holly Hills
<a title="Articles About Killearn Commons Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Killearn Commons</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Killearn Commons Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Killearn Commons</a>
Killearn Commons
<a title="Articles About Camelot Park Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Camelot Park</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Camelot Park Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Camelot Park</a>
Camelot Park
Midtown At Meridian
<a title="Homes For Sale In Midtown At Meridian Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Midtown At Meridian</a>
Midtown At Meridian
<a title="Articles About Waverly Hills Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Waverly Hills</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Waverly Hills Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Waverly Hills</a>
Waverly Hills
<a title="Articles About Woodland Drive Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Woodland Drive</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Woodland Drive Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Woodland Drive</a>
Woodland Drive
<a title="Articles About Mabry Manor Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Mabry Manor</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Mabry Manor Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Mabry Manor</a>
Mabry Manor
<a title="Articles About Settlers Creek Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Settlers Creek</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Settlers Creek Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Settlers Creek</a>
Settlers Creek
<a title="Articles About Astoria Park Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Astoria Park</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Astoria Park Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Astoria Park</a>
Astoria Park
<a title="Articles About Park Brook Crossing Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">Park Brook Crossing</a>
<a title="Homes For Sale In Park Brook Crossing Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/communities/" target="_blank">Park Brook Crossing</a>
Park Brook Crossing
<br /><br />Joe Wrote The Book On How To Sell A Home Today
<a href="https://jmre.ws/a77gy" target="_blank"><img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userFiles/663/image/TBOGB-ebook-cover.png" width="300" height="401" target="_blank" alt="Joe Manausa wrote the book on how to sell a home in the digital age, you can find it here" title="How To Sell Your House In The Digital Age" class="img_box_left" /></a>“Location, location, location’ is no longer a competitive advantage. Digital marketing and going direct to consumer have made all geographical boundaries obsolete. The Business of Getting Business is a must-read modern-day survival guide for any local business to get to the next decade. Local businesses are on death ground.
They can either take a stand and re-invent themselves by embracing the digital frontier and have a chance to survive the overwhelming odds of digital direct-to-consumer capabilities that have erased all local and national business distinctions, or they can choose business as usual and accept certain death.
The Business of Getting Business is the critical survival guide for those that choose to dig in and fight.”<br /> – Anthony Noto, CEO, SoFi and former COO, Twitter
Get the book that explains it all, in a manner that is understanding to all, even technology neophytes. It's available on <a href="https://jmre.ws/a77gy" target="_blank" title="Joe's Book On How To Sell A Home">Amazon</a>, a trusted source for consumers.2010-04-08T09:14:00-07:002020-04-21T08:41:42-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2543Tallahassee Home Sales YTD February 20, 2010We have a large database of Tallahassee home sales and reports going back to 1991. Each month, we check to see how the market is doing year to date when compared to previous years.
The following real estate graph shows January home sales figures for each year, going all the way back to 1991. The crimson portion of each vertical bar represents the total of all single family detached home sales for each year, while the pink portion represents the total of all condominium and townhouse sales for the same period of time.
Unfortunately, January 2010 is the worst month on record (20 years worth of Tallahassee home sales information), but there are some positive signs to consider.
Condo and townhouse unit sales were higher this year than last year
Single family home sales were up significantly in December, so this could just be a balancing of growing market trend
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Real-Estate-YTD-Home-Sales.jpg"><img class=" img_box_center" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Real-Estate-YTD-Home-Sales.jpg" alt="" width="700" height="561" /></a>
Other Important Real Estate Market Reports
Join us at <a title="Tallahassee Real Estate Market Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">The Market Bulletin.</a> You might also want to check out the other great <a title="Charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank">real estate graphs</a>, with explanations listed below:
<a title="Pending Home Sales Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tag/housing-report/" target="_blank">Pending Home Sales Report For Leon County</a>
<a title="YTD Home Sales Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Year To Date Homes Sold Report</a>
<a title="Tallahassee MLS Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Tallahassee Area Housing Report</a>
<a title="Condo and Townhouse sales trends in Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Condo and Townhouse Report for Tallahassee</a>
<a title="Lot Sales Trends In Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Lots and Land Parcels Sold</a>
<a title="What is the value of my home?" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/average-residential-prices-february-16-2010/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Average Home Prices In Tally</a>
<a title="Year over Year Home Sales Trend Report" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/year-over-year-home-sales-february-15-2010/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Year Over Year Homes Sold Report</a>
2010-02-20T10:15:00-07:002017-07-01T06:14:24-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:1935A True Blessing for First Time Home Buyers<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/663/image/A_True_Blessing_for_First_Time_Home_Buyers.png" width="600" height="400" class="img_box_center" />
Eva Armstrong has helped many <a title="Take advantage of the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/first-time-home-buyers/" target="_blank">Tallahassee first time home buyers</a> realize the dream of owning their own home.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Eva-Armstrong-Is-A-Top-Producing-Realtor-In-Tallahassee-Florida.jpg"><img class=" img_box_right" title="Eva Armstrong Is A Top Producing Realtor In Tallahassee Florida" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Eva-Armstrong-Is-A-Top-Producing-Realtor-In-Tallahassee-Florida.jpg" alt="Eva Armstrong Is A Top Producing Realtor In Tallahassee Florida" /></a> Eva's dedication and genuine compassion helps her guide Buyers through the home buying process. She received this note from a first-time buyer expressing their gratitude toward Eva:
"Eva, We can't express how grateful we are to you for all of your help. You have truly been a blessing during our first home buying experience! We hope for all the best for you and hopefully one day we will be able to work with you again. Like you said, it was not a coincidence that you were our guiding light during this process. Thank you for everything."
Call Eva Armstrong today for a great Tallahassee home buying experience!
<address style="text-align: justify;">Eva Armstrong</address><address style="text-align: justify;">(850) 386-2001 </address>2009-12-23T01:34:00-07:002020-05-30T16:41:29-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:2724Tallahassee Home Sales By Zip Code<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/663/image/Tallahassee_Home_Sales_By_Zip_Code.png" width="800" height="577" />
I was having a conversation with a customer yesterday about <a title="Tallahassee Subdivision Articles" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Tallahassee subdivisions</a> and Tallahassee zip codes, or more specifically what was happening in various areas of the Tallahassee housing market. Even though she is coming to Tallahassee from another market out west, she was able to have a pretty solid grasp of where she wanted to live.
By using the Tallahassee real estate blog, she was able to differentiate the different housing styles and amenities of <a title="Golden Eagle In Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Golden Eagle Plantation</a> versus <a title="Southwood In Tallahassee, Florida" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">Southwood</a>, and she had narrowed down her desired area to two specific zip codes. She even had specific questions about the characteristics of over 10 <a title="Tallahassee Neighborhood news, articles, and reports" href="https://www.manausa.com/idx/search-form/" target="_blank">different Tallahassee neighborhoods</a>. I can tell you, the amount of information a home buyer can learn before even getting to Tallahassee has changed so much in the past 10 years.
Tallahassee Home Sales By Zip Code
Our conversation got me thinking that it might be a good time to update our "<a href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tallahassee-zip-code-list/" title="zip code list">Tallahassee Home Sales By Zip Code</a>" information. I haven't reported this kind of information in quite some time, so today we'll look at both unit sales trends by zip code as well as average home prices by zip code in the Tallahassee real estate market.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales-Graph-By-Zip-Code.JPG"><img class=" img_box_center" title="Tallahassee Home Sales Graph By Zip Code" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Tallahassee-Home-Sales-Graph-By-Zip-Code.JPG" alt="Tallahassee Home Sales Graph By Zip Code" width="600" height="527" /></a>
There are no real surprises in the real estate graph above. Each Tallahassee zip code has seen the number of home sales drop over the past three years. The most active zip code continues to be 32303, followed by 32312. But when we look at pricing, we find a completely different story.
Tallahassee Home Values By Zip Code
When we look at home values by zip code in Tallahassee, the 32312 zip code stands alone above the rest.
<a rel="nofollow" title="Tweet This Real Estate Blog To Your Friends" href="http://twitter.com/home?status=RT+%40HousingReporter+Here%27s+a+great+real+estate+blog+and+newsletter+to+follow+-+/" target="_blank"></a><a rel="nofollow" title="Tweet This Real Estate Blog To Your Friends" href="http://twitter.com/home?status=RT+%40HousingReporter+Here%27s+a+great+real+estate+blog+and+newsletter+to+follow+-+/" target="_blank"><img class=" img_box_right" title="HousingReporter On Twitter Is The Top Twitter Real Estate Broker" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/HousingReporter-On-Twitter-Is-The-Top-Twitter-Real-Estate-Broker.JPG" alt="HousingReporter On Twitter Is The Top Twitter Real Estate Broker" width="142" height="139" /></a>
<a rel="nofollow" title="Tweet Me Please!" href="http://twitter.com/home?status=RT+%40HousingReporter+Here%27s+a+great+real+estate+blog+and+newsletter+to+follow+-+/" target="_blank">Please click here to tweet this to your friends! </a>
<a title="Subscribe To The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/subscribe-tallahassee-newsletter/"><img title="subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter.jpg" alt="subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter" width="488" height="128" class="img_box_center" /></a>
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the <a id="zb0r" title="Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog" href="https://www.manausa.com/">Tallahassee Real Estate Blog</a> by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates on real estate in Tallahassee Florida.
<a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog"></a><a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog"></a><a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog">Subscribe in a reader</a>
<a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US"></a><a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US"></a><a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US">Subscribe by email</a>
Joe Manausa is a real estate blogger, a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the <a id="kdwe" title="Tallahassee homes and Tallahassee housing" href="https://www.manausa.com/">Tallahassee Real Estate Website</a> or catch his latest writings on the <a id="r94q" title="Florida Real Estate Blog" href="https://www.manausa.com/">Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog</a> , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
<a title="Advice On How To Sell A Home" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/sell-a-house-in-tallahassee/" target="_blank"><img title="Home Sales Advice" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Home-Sales-Advice.JPG" alt="Home Sales Advice" width="100" height="107" /></a>
<a title="Tips every homeowner should know before trying to sell a home - written with a twist of humor" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/home-selling-tips/" target="_blank"><img title="10 Critical Home Selling Steps" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/10-Critical-Home-Selling-Steps.JPG" alt="10 Critical Home Selling Steps" width="100" height="109" /></a>
<a title="Real Estate Survey" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/surveys/" target="_blank"></a>
<a title="Real Estate Survey" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/surveys/" target="_blank"><img class=" img_box_right" title="Provide feedback with a real estate survey" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Provide-feedback-with-a-real-estate-survey.JPG" alt="Provide feedback with a real estate survey" width="100" height="130" /></a>
<a title="Creative Financing Solutions For Tallahassee Home Buyers" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/creative-home-financing/" target="_blank"><img title="Creative Financing Options For Home Buyers" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Creative-Financing-Options-For-Home-Buyers1.JPG" alt="Creative Financing Options For Home Buyers" width="100" height="108" /></a>
<a title="Learn the process that smart home buyers use when buying a short sale" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/tallahassee-short-sales-approved/" target="_blank"><img title="Buy A Short Sale" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/Buy-A-Short-Sale.JPG" alt="Buy A Short Sale" width="100" height="110" /></a>
2009-10-06T08:01:00-07:002020-06-17T22:00:25-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3966A Valuable Tool For Florida Homeowners<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/663/image/A_Valuable_Tool_For_Florida_Homeowners.png" width="600" height="400" class="img_box_center" />
With all the problems in the real estate and mortgage industries, many new scams seem to be traveling around the internet, as well as through direct mail and telemarketing. The one that has raised the awareness of the State of Florida concerns organizations that promote themselves as mortgage rescue specialists. While many of these law firms and mortgage companies are reputable, there are a great number of them in which you should be wary.
<a href="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/florida-foreclosure-rescue-scam1.jpg"><img class=" img_box_right" title="florida-foreclosure-rescue-scam1" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/florida-foreclosure-rescue-scam1.jpg" alt="florida-foreclosure-rescue-scam1" width="256" height="192" /></a>
A valuable tool for Florida homeowners was recently developed by Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum. His new website, <a title="Mortgage Foreclosure Rescue Fraud Information" href="http://myfloridalegal.com/mortgagefraud" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">http://myfloridalegal.com/mortgagefraud</a>, provides consumers with easy access to current investigations, complaint forms, and tips to identify and avoid foreclosure rescue fraud.
Foreclosure Rescue Fraud Is Top Complaint
Foreclosure rescue fraud, or fraud involving loan modifications related to foreclosures, is the complaint topic most commonly reported to the <a title="Help Stop Mortgage Foreclosure Rescue Fraud" href="http://myfloridalegal.com/mortgagefraud" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Attorney General's Office</a> and involves the charging of an up-front fee for foreclosure rescue services before any services are provided, if they are provided at all.
On <a title="Mortgage Foreclosure Rescue Fraud Web Site" href="http://myfloridalegal.com/mortgagefraud" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">the mortgage fraud website</a>, consumers can access a list of investigations being conducted by the Attorney General's Mortgage Fraud Task Force to see if a particular company is currently being scrutinized. They can also obtain information about active litigation and can download affidavit forms to fill out if they have been victimized by one of the listed companies.
In the current economy, consumers can use all the help they can get to protect themselves from scammers. I encourage you to check out this beneficial website.
<a title="Subscribe To The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/subscribe-tallahassee-newsletter/" target="_blank"><img class=" img_box_center" title="subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter.jpg" alt="subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter" width="488" height="128" /></a>
<a type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog" rel="nofollow"></a><a type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog" rel="nofollow">Subscribe in a reader</a>
<a type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US" rel="nofollow"></a><a type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US" rel="nofollow">Subscribe by email</a>
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the <a id="zb0r" title="Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Real Estate Blog</a> by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.<br id="cdm52" /><br id="lzm50" />If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full <a id="qian" title="Tallahassee Real Estate Blog" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog" rel="nofollow">RSS feed</a>, or you can <a id="ayji" title="Tallahassee's Best Source for Current Real Estate Information" href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=1572496" rel="nofollow">Subscribe by Email</a>.You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the <a id="kdwe" title="Tallahassee homes and Tallahassee housing" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Real Estate Website</a> or catch his latest writings on the <a id="r94q" title="Florida Real Estate Blog" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog</a> , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
<img id="pgxk1" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/currentmarketreports.jpg" alt="" width="169" height="179" /> <img id="qbi7" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/pastmarketreports.jpg" alt="" width="172" height="178" /> <img id="oxoz" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/marketreportblogs.jpg" alt="" width="168" height="179" />
<a id="unry" href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/tallahasseerealestate" rel="nofollow" style="background-color: #ff0000;"><img id="l73i" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/linkedinbutton.gif" alt="View Joe Manausa's profile on LinkedIn" width="160" height="33" border="0" /></a>
2009-05-06T06:50:00-07:002020-06-04T20:19:42-07:00Joe Manausatag:manausa.com,2012-09-20:3944Predicting Tallahassee Home Sales Now And In The Future<img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userfiles/663/image/Predicting_Tallahassee_Home_Sales_Now_And_In_The_Future.png" width="600" height="400" />
I wrote a blog article last year about predicting future home sales based upon a correlation between population growth and home sales. I was/am trying to create a model that should demonstrate, over time, the amount of sales we should expect in the Tallahassee real estate market. Today I am going to update that model with new information.
I want to invite your feedback, criticism, support or arguments in any capacity to help move this model forward. I suspect that with enough feedback, we might be able to build a workable model that should identify future home sales to a fairly accurate degree. So please, use the "Leave A Reply" section at the end of this post and give us some feedback!
The real shocker that this model is showing is that 2008 was not the bottom. As a matter of fact, it is showing that 2009 might not be the bottom either!
Future Home Sales In Tallahassee
Just as a review (as if you don't remember the previous <a title="Future Home Sales In Tallahassee" href="https://www.manausa.com/blog/2009-tallahassee-home-sales/" target="_blank">article on future home sales in Tallahassee</a>), our model needs the following information in order to project a future home sales pattern:
Estimated Population - Perhaps the toughest bit of data to come by, Leon County population figures seem to be arbitrarily generated by each and every different demographics web site that I visit. I would love some scientifically-based opininion on the best source of population data.
Past Home Sales - This is one bit of information that I am very comfortable that I have accurate data. I have been tracking home sales in Tallahassee since 1991.
Assumptions In The Tallahassee Real Estate Predictive Model
Once we have the information defined above, we must rely on a few assumptions for our model to work. Again, if you have any kind of opinion on the validity or usability of these assumptions, please comment after the post.
Discretionary versus Non-Discretionary Consumers - In any type of market, there exist discretionary consumers (they buy and sell because they want to do so) and non-discretionary consumers (they buy or sell because they need to). During periods of very low activity, the discretionary consumers mostly sit on the sidelines, not wanting to participate in the market, leaving it to the non-discretionary consumers.
Non-Discretionary Consumers - Non-discretionary buyers (and sellers) exist in any market and over time represent a measurable, predictable ratio of the market population base. If the population is growing, so is the number of non-discretionary buyers. If the population is shrinking, again so is the number of non-discretionary buyers. In its simplest form, the model says a growing market needs more houses, a shrinking market needs fewer houses.
Discretionary Consumers - Discretionary consumers buy and/or sell because something motivates them to do it. These motivators can be normal life events (job promotion/demotion, new family members, etc.) or outside influencers (change in interest rates, change in tax laws, etc.). The discretionary consumer is not nearly so predictable, but over time we can learn to expect a certain percentage of the population will be motivated to enter the market.
Expected Home Sales In Tallahassee
By using the assumptions and data above, we can projected a "normal amount of sales" for an area. We can make a real estate graph that shows what this normal or "expected" amount of sales should be for each year. We then can assume that, over time, the number of sales will be seeking that normalized amount. So if we spend a few years with more activity than normal, then we should expect a few years with less activity than normal.
The difficulty in the model is that the "normal" sales amount is a moving target, based upon a population number that is not definitely known. But nevertheless, we take the best information available and go with it. The following real estate graph is the result of all this modeling:
<img class=" img_box_center" title="real estate Tallahassee Florida" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/tallahassee-real-estate-predicitive-model-update-2-11-09.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="529" />
Historic Home Sales And Population Growth Drive Real Estate Sales Model
In the graph above, the pink line represents that number of sales that would be normal each year due to the size of the population. The vertical bars show the actual sales (through 2008) and the projected sales (2009 forward) and are broken down into non-discretionary buyers (bright red) as well as discretionary buyers (dark red).
The first thing that really jumps to view is that we spent 6 straight years well above the expected sales level of the Tallahassee housing market. This means that we should anticipate a similar amount of time below the line. Due to this assumption, the next three years look to be "catchup" years for home sales in Tallahassee. The model projects 2009 being the bottom year, but if some of the stimulus package kicks in and we bring discretionary consumers back into the market, then we could be "below normal" for quite some period of time (the stimulus package would be an outside influencer).
Please leave a reply below as I hope this can initiate a lively discussion from all of our readers.
<a rel="nofollow" href="http://technorati.com/faves?sub=addfavbtn&add=/"></a>
<a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog"></a><a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog">Subscribe in a reader</a>
<a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US"></a><a rel="alternate" type="application/rss+xml" href="http://feedburner.google.com/fb/a/mailverify?uri=TallahasseeRealEstateBlog&loc=en_US">Subscribe by email</a>
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the <a id="zb0r" title="Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Real Estate Blog</a> by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates that include charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.<br id="cdm52" /><br id="lzm50" />If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full <a rel="nofollow" id="qian" title="Tallahassee Real Estate Blog" href="http://feeds2.feedburner.com/TallahasseeRealEstateBlog">RSS feed</a>, or you can <a rel="nofollow" id="ayji" title="Tallahassee's Best Source for Current Real Estate Information" href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=1572496">Subscribe by Email</a>.You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the <a id="kdwe" title="Tallahassee homes and Tallahassee housing" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Real Estate Website</a> or catch his latest writings on the <a id="r94q" title="Florida Real Estate Blog" href="https://www.manausa.com/" target="_blank">Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog</a> , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
<img id="pgxk1" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/currentmarketreports.jpg" alt="" width="169" height="179" /> <img id="qbi7" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/pastmarketreports.jpg" alt="" width="172" height="178" /> <img id="oxoz" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/marketreportblogs.jpg" alt="" width="168" height="179" />
<a id="unry" rel="nofollow" href="http://www.linkedin.com/in/tallahasseerealestate" style="background-color: #ff0000;"><img id="l73i" src="https://www.manausa.com/uploads/imagefiles/linkedinbutton.gif" border="0" alt="View Joe Manausa's profile on LinkedIn" width="160" height="33" /></a>
<br /><br />Joe Wrote The Book On How To Sell A Home Today
<a href="https://jmre.ws/a77gy" target="_blank"><img src="https://assets.site-static.com/userFiles/663/image/TBOGB-ebook-cover.png" width="300" height="401" target="_blank" alt="Joe Manausa wrote the book on how to sell a home in the digital age, you can find it here" title="How To Sell Your House In The Digital Age" class="img_box_left" /></a>“Location, location, location’ is no longer a competitive advantage. Digital marketing and going direct to consumer have made all geographical boundaries obsolete. The Business of Getting Business is a must-read modern-day survival guide for any local business to get to the next decade. Local businesses are on death ground.
They can either take a stand and re-invent themselves by embracing the digital frontier and have a chance to survive the overwhelming odds of digital direct-to-consumer capabilities that have erased all local and national business distinctions, or they can choose business as usual and accept certain death.
The Business of Getting Business is the critical survival guide for those that choose to dig in and fight.”<br /> – Anthony Noto, CEO, SoFi and former COO, Twitter
Get the book that explains it all, in a manner that is understanding to all, even technology neophytes. It's available on <a href="https://jmre.ws/a77gy" target="_blank" title="Joe's Book On How To Sell A Home">Amazon</a>, a trusted source for consumers.2009-02-09T09:45:00-07:002020-05-04T08:06:12-07:00Joe Manausa