Killearn Lakes 3 Home Sales Report
Killearn Lakes 3 home sales are closing at rates far lower than they were during the height of the Tallahassee housing market, and it appears that this popular Northeast Tallahassee neighborhood has got more to give back to the market. The real estate graph below shows declining short, medium and long term trends in KLP3 home values.
In the graph above, the gold points show the average value of Killearn Lakes 3 homes sold each month, while the colored lines show the average values over time. The short term trend is dropping rapidly (down over 30% since the peak of the market), while the medium term trend has fallen nearly 10% over the past year. Here are a few points we can glean from the real estate graph above:
When we study the home appreciation trends in Killearn Lakes Unit 3, I believe we are seeing solid proof that home values will continue to depreciate for some time. The short term trend crossed-over the long-term trend at the beginning of 2009, while the medium-term trend has yet to cross over the long-term trend. What does this mean?
All trends were buoyed by the Homebuyer Tax Credit in 2009 (see the shaded portion highlighted in the graph above). Since the end of this tax stimulus, values have resumed falling and have even caught back up to their previous rate of decline.
Real Estate Supply And Demand Determine Value
The tracking of home sales in Killearn Lakes 3 gives us a great view of what has occurred, and one can really get a feel for the near term future when looking at a simplified chart. Chartists would tell you to watch for cross-overs ... meaning when a short term trend "crosses over" a longer term trend, it is a sign of market direction.
The next cross-over that we will likely see is the 5 year trend (green line) crossing over the 10 year trend (blue line). How do we suspect this future move? The key is real estate supply and demand.
The table above shows that homes in Northeast Tallahassee valued between $200K and $300K have roughly ten months of supply, far more than a 
market at equilibrium requires. Additionally, the higher price ranges will add to this supply as prices are lowered to generate home sales for Killearn Lakes 3 homeowners who absolutely must sell their homes.
Just a reminder, each month we provide a Tallahassee real estate supply and demand report, available for free download at the Tallahassee Real Estate Market Report site. You can download the report from the right sidebar of that site, or you can download the December 2010 report by clicking on the image to the right.
This report shows the entire Tallahassee real estate market, broken down by price range and area, and should help you determine the competition level for your home.
Recent Arms Length Killearn Lakes 3 Home Sales
| Address | Price | Size | PPSFT | Age | Sale Date |
| 9329 BUCK HAVEN TRL | 175,000 | 1682 | $104 | 1991 | 10/26/2010 |
| 1761 COPPERFIELD CIR | 106,500 | 1276 | $83 | 1988 | 9/30/2010 |
| 1508 COPPERFIELD CIR | 250,000 | 2283 | $110 | 1996 | 8/16/2010 |
| 1601 CHADWICK WAY | 215,000 | 1878 | $114 | 1990 | 6/14/2010 |
| 9541 BUCK HAVEN TRL | 170,000 | 1466 | $116 | 1990 | 6/4/2010 |
| 9368 BUCK HAVEN TRL | 175,000 | 1720 | $102 | 1990 | 5/21/2010 |
| 1561 COPPERFIELD CIR | 222,500 | 2043 | $109 | 1991 | 5/7/2010 |
| 11065 WILDLIFE TRL | 185,000 | 1588 | $116 | 1995 | 3/26/2010 |
| 9300 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $245,000 | 1,954 | $125 | 1990 | 1/4/2010 |
| 1632 CHADWICK WAY | $260,000 | 1,954 | $133 | 1992 | 12/30/2009 |
| 1517 COPPERFIELD CIR | $191,000 | 1,588 | $120 | 1990 | 11/20/2009 |
| 1533 COPPERFIELD CIR | $185,000 | 1,478 | $125 | 1989 | 10/30/2009 |
| 1564 COPPERFIELD CIR | $225,500 | 1,848 | $122 | 1990 | 10/30/2009 |
| 12037 CEDAR BLUFF TRL | $277,000 | 2,074 | $134 | 1992 | 10/29/2009 |
| 9904 TURTLE DOVE | $227,000 | 2,059 | $110 | 1990 | 10/24/2009 |
| 9409 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $200,000 | 1,868 | $107 | 1994 | 10/13/2009 |
| 11104 WILDLIFE TRL | $300,000 | 3,343 | $90 | 1990 | 10/8/2009 |
| 11100 WILDLIFE TRL | $207,500 | 1,766 | $117 | 1990 | 9/30/2009 |
| 12018 CEDAR BLUFF TRL | $294,000 | 2,216 | $133 | 2000 | 8/28/2009 |
| 1524 COPPERFIELD CIR | $275,000 | 2,319 | $119 | 1990 | 8/28/2009 |
| 11062 WILDLIFE TRL | $238,000 | 2,139 | $111 | 1991 | 7/31/2009 |
| 9912 BEAVER RIDGE TRL | $293,000 | 1,902 | $154 | 1990 | 7/15/2009 |
| 9912 BEAVER RIDGE TRL | $293,000 | 1,902 | $154 | 1990 | 7/15/2009 |
| 11116 WILDLIFE TRL | $235,000 | 2,037 | $115 | 1991 | 7/10/2009 |
| 1813 LOG RIDGE TRL | $195,000 | 1,561 | $125 | 1996 | 6/29/2009 |
| 9908 TURTLE DOVE | $180,000 | 1,344 | $134 | 1989 | 6/19/2009 |
| 1620 CHADWICK WAY | $250,000 | 1,891 | $132 | 1993 | 6/10/2009 |
| 9912 TURTLE DOVE | $235,000 | 2,177 | $108 | 1989 | 6/1/2009 |
| 1599 COPPERFIELD CIR | $182,900 | 1,547 | $118 | 1993 | 5/6/2009 |
| 11095 WILDLIFE TRL | $230,000 | 2,302 | $100 | 1990 | 5/5/2009 |
| 1662 COPPERFIELD CIR | $199,900 | 1,601 | $125 | 1989 | 4/29/2009 |
| 9944 BEAVER RIDGE TRL | $226,600 | 1,531 | $148 | 1990 | 4/13/2009 |
| 1525 CHADWICK WAY | $238,000 | 1,958 | $122 | 1991 | 3/31/2009 |
| 1625 CHERRY HILL LN | $185,000 | 2,312 | $80 | 1992 | 3/18/2009 |
| 1718 COPPERFIELD CIR | $262,000 | 1,958 | $134 | 1992 | 1/15/2009 |
| 1644 COPPERFIELD CIR | $238,500 | 2,052 | $116 | 1995 | 1/6/2009 |
| 1616 CHERRY HILL LN | $175,500 | 1,805 | $97 | 1992 | 12/1/2008 |
| 9418 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $289,900 | 2,150 | $135 | 1997 | 10/24/2008 |
| 1838 LOG RIDGE TRL | $245,500 | 1,876 | $131 | 1990 | 9/25/2008 |
| 1837 LOG RIDGE TRL | $180,000 | 1,545 | $117 | 1997 | 9/23/2008 |
| 1529 COPPERFIELD CIR | $248,000 | 1,711 | $145 | 1994 | 9/12/2008 |
| 1603 COPPERFIELD CIR | $257,500 | 1,908 | $135 | 1995 | 8/29/2008 |
| 1616 COPPERFIELD CIR | $221,200 | 1,606 | $138 | 1990 | 8/29/2008 |
| 1808 BITTER ROOT TRL | $240,000 | 1,762 | $136 | 1990 | 8/5/2008 |
| 1584 CHADWICK WAY | $231,000 | 1,685 | $137 | 1995 | 7/25/2008 |
| 1878 LOG RIDGE TRL | $275,000 | 2,147 | $128 | 1989 | 7/11/2008 |
| 1639 CHADWICK WAY | $312,500 | 2,795 | $112 | 1991 | 6/27/2008 |
| 12038 CEDAR BLUFF TRL | $213,000 | 1,599 | $133 | 1991 | 5/23/2008 |
| 9336 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $305,000 | 1,908 | $160 | 1993 | 5/1/2008 |
| 9821 THUNDER HILL TRL | $250,000 | 1,754 | $143 | 1990 | 4/30/2008 |
| 1874 LOG RIDGE TRL | $275,000 | 1,926 | $143 | 1990 | 4/15/2008 |
| 1545 COPPERFIELD CIR | $285,000 | 1,830 | $156 | 1991 | 3/28/2008 |
| 1620 CHADWICK WAY | $277,800 | 1,867 | $149 | 1993 | 3/21/2008 |
| 1749 COPPERFIELD CIR | $273,000 | 1,974 | $138 | 1992 | 3/14/2008 |
| 11025 WILDLIFE TRL | $315,800 | 2,209 | $143 | 2006 | 1/4/2008 |
| 1870 LOG RIDGE TRL | $260,000 | 1,931 | $135 | 1989 | 12/21/2007 |
| 1557 COPPERFIELD CIR | $240,000 | 1,794 | $134 | 1988 | 10/31/2007 |
| 9425 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $243,000 | 1,617 | $150 | 1994 | 10/29/2007 |
| 12009 OTTER CREEK TRL | $270,000 | 2,001 | $135 | 1992 | 10/4/2007 |
| 1706 COPPERFIELD CIR | $300,000 | 2,284 | $131 | 1991 | 10/1/2007 |
| 9833 THUNDER HILL TRL | $259,000 | 2,229 | $116 | 1992 | 9/27/2007 |
| 1603 COPPERFIELD CIR | $271,700 | 1,908 | $142 | 1995 | 8/1/2007 |
| 1641 COPPERFIELD CIR | $305,000 | 2,065 | $148 | 1993 | 8/1/2007 |
| 13004 GOPHER WOOD TRL | $332,000 | 2,090 | $159 | 1992 | 7/31/2007 |
| 1587 COPPERFIELD CIR | $340,500 | 2,513 | $135 | 1990 | 7/31/2007 |
| 11029 WILDLIFE TRL | $251,000 | 1,806 | $139 | 1997 | 7/27/2007 |
| 1604 CHERRY HILL LN | $270,000 | 2,100 | $129 | 1992 | 7/26/2007 |
| 1560 COPPERFIELD CIR | $307,500 | 2,220 | $139 | 1991 | 6/20/2007 |
| 1879 LOG RIDGE TRL | $200,000 | 1,552 | $129 | 1988 | 6/15/2007 |
| 9356 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $282,900 | 1,851 | $153 | 1993 | 6/15/2007 |
| 12024 OTTER CREEK TRL | $229,900 | 1,685 | $136 | 1995 | 6/8/2007 |
| 2009 CASTLE CROWN LN | $255,000 | 1,917 | $133 | 1991 | 5/31/2007 |
| 9484 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $249,900 | 1,689 | $148 | 1990 | 5/23/2007 |
| 1543 BREAMSTONE RDG | $275,000 | 2,063 | $133 | 1992 | 5/18/2007 |
| 9521 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $350,000 | 2,322 | $151 | 1991 | 5/18/2007 |
| 9464 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $290,000 | 1,974 | $147 | 2000 | 5/14/2007 |
| 9393 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $254,000 | 2,139 | $119 | 1994 | 4/27/2007 |
| 1636 COPPERFIELD CIR | $315,000 | 1,476 | $213 | 1992 | 3/30/2007 |
| 9457 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $263,500 | 2,004 | $131 | 1991 | 3/27/2007 |
| 1764 COPPERFIELD CIR | $257,500 | 1,896 | $136 | 1990 | 3/19/2007 |
| 9551 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $248,000 | 1,770 | $140 | 1990 | 3/19/2007 |
| 12065 CEDAR BLUFF TRL | $325,000 | 2,720 | $119 | 1990 | 3/15/2007 |
| 1527 BREAMSTONE RDG | $230,000 | 1,635 | $141 | 1991 | 2/6/2007 |
| 9552 BUCK HAVEN TRL | $206,000 | 1,397 | $147 | 1989 | 1/22/2007 |
| 1857 LOG RIDGE TRL | $268,000 | 1,984 | $135 | 1993 | 1/11/2007 |
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