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One reader provided an interesting observation about our graphing and charting techniques here on the Tallahassee Real Estate Web Site. This reader wanted to know why we relied so heavily on real estate one-year trend charts, as opposed to non-trended data graphs.
Specifically, the reader asked
So much of your data focuses on 365-day analysis. Given the dynamics of real estate today, it would be nice to have monthly information as well. I understand seasonality makes it hard to compare between months. But sometimes it’s just nice to know what is actually selling and what isn’t in the current market.
I am envisioning something like your inventory report, showing for the past month the number of condos/THs that sold and the number of single-family detached homes that sold. Sales data by price range and region (e.g. NE, NW, SE, SW) would be helpful too.
By the way, keep up the good work. In my opinion, this is the best RE site covering any metro region…at least the best free one.
This is great feedback and I will get more non-trended reports embedded into future blogs. But I also want to demonstrate the value of these trended results, with a real-world Tallahassee neighborhood report.
Bull Run Subdivision Home Sales Report
In order to demonstrate my perception of the value of the trend report, let’s take a look at arms-length home sales in the Bull Run Subdivision in Tallahassee, Florida. The graph below shows the number of homes sold each month, and the corresponding average prices of the homes sold that month.
The information in this real estate graph shows the recent sales and prices, but do you get a real feel for what is occurring from this? Are sales up in Bull Run? Are sales down in Bull Run? What do you really see? If anything, I see a general downward trend on home prices, with a nice little “spike up” in the past three months. What do you see?
Home Prices Still Dropping In Bull Run Subdivision
This next real estate graph removes the seasonal bumps and jumps in the graph above by annualizing every point in the graph. To me, the results tell a much more focused picture.
When I created these two real estate graphs, I had to look at them several times because I thought I had made a mistake. The first graph of Bull Run home sales seems to show a much more stable picture, while the second graph makes it appear as if Bull Run home prices are still dropping.
The problem with the first graph is that your mind (at least my mind) cannot do the math and factor in weighted averages of unit counts and average prices. For example, looking at the first graph, there were five sales of homes in Bull Run in July 2009 for less than $300,000. There was one sale for more than $300,000 in September of 2009.
On the first graph, it doesn’t really seem to catch your eye, but when we trend it, we realize what is really occurring in the Bull Run Subdivision. The average price trend has dropped 25% ($100,000) since the peak of the market! That message hits me right between the eyes in the trend graph, yet I would not have even noticed it in the first graph.
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Historical Arms Length Home Sales In Bull Run Subdivision
| Parcel Address | Price | Sale Date |
| 2540 CARTHAGE LN | $339,000 | 9/15/2009 |
| 2514 MANASSAS WAY | $267,000 | 8/31/2009 |
| 2540 HALLECK LN | $274,800 | 8/21/2009 |
| 2572 ULYSSES RD | $375,000 | 8/14/2009 |
| 2526 BENNITTS MILL WAY | $359,900 | 7/24/2009 |
| 5635 TECUMSEH DR | $256,000 | 7/15/2009 |
| 2565 ULYSSES RD | $280,000 | 7/14/2009 |
| 5856 APPOMATTOX CT | $283,000 | 7/1/2009 |
| 2518 MANASSAS WAY | $295,400 | 7/2/2009 |
| 2538 MANASSAS WAY | $264,900 | 6/30/2009 |
| 2565 MANASSAS WAY | $257,900 | 6/22/2009 |
| 5848 APPOMATTOX CT | $289,800 | 6/23/2009 |
| 2557 HALLECK LN | $279,000 | 6/12/2009 |
| 2546 MANASSAS WAY | $259,000 | 6/4/2009 |
| 2542 MANASSAS WAY | $277,900 | 5/28/2009 |
| 5852 APPOMATOX CT | $270,000 | 5/22/2009 |
| 2541 ULYSSES RD | $367,600 | 5/22/2009 |
| 2558 HALLECK LN | $269,000 | 4/24/2009 |
| 5690 BURNSIDE CIR | $260,000 | 4/10/2009 |
| 2550 LAGRANGE TRL | $355,000 | 3/27/2009 |
| 2553 HALLECK LN | $252,700 | 3/18/2009 |
| 5624 BURNSIDE CIR | $326,000 | 3/3/2009 |
| 2624 ULYSSES RD | $250,000 | 2/20/2009 |
| 2624 ULYSSES RD | $272,800 | 1/6/2009 |
| 5690 BURNSIDE CIR | $263,400 | 1/6/2009 |
| 2554 HALLECK LN | $249,000 | 1/29/2009 |
| 2533 BENNITS MILL WAY | $336,800 | 1/30/2009 |
| 2549 HALLECK LN | $279,900 | 12/30/2008 |
| 5857 APPOMATTOX CT | $279,900 | 12/22/2008 |
| 2536 CARTHAGE LN | $330,000 | 12/15/2008 |
| 5620 BURNSIDE CIR | $280,000 | 12/12/2008 |
| 2535 BENNITS MILL WAY | $375,000 | 10/15/2008 |
| 2514 LAGRANGE TRL | $315,000 | 9/29/2008 |
| 2595 MANASSAS WAY | $278,000 | 9/22/2008 |
| 2587 MANASSAS WAY | $254,100 | 9/18/2008 |
| 2589 ULYSSES RD | $369,900 | 9/12/2008 |
| 2540 ULYSSES RD | $410,000 | 9/4/2008 |
| 5648 BURNSIDE CIR | $340,000 | 8/15/2008 |
| 5655 TECUMSEH DR | $340,000 | 8/15/2008 |
| 2704 BRETON RIDGE DR | $525,000 | 8/11/2008 |
| 2525 ULYSSES RD | $375,000 | 8/1/2008 |
| 2529 CARTHAGE | $340,000 | 7/25/2008 |
| 5617 RINGOLD LN | $325,000 | 7/28/2008 |
| 2531 BENNITS MILL WAY | $394,900 | 7/3/2008 |
| 5619 TECUMSEH DR | $330,000 | 6/30/2008 |
| 5604 BURNSIDE CIR | $377,500 | 6/19/2008 |
| 2700 BRETON RIDGE DR | $515,000 | 6/11/2008 |
| 2620 ULYSSES RD | $297,800 | 5/16/2008 |
| 2543 BENNITS MILL WAY | $359,900 | 4/30/2008 |
| 5642 BURNSIDE CIR | $370,000 | 4/21/2008 |
| 2656 BRETON RIDGE DR | $331,300 | 4/17/2008 |
| 5729 ROANOKE TRL | $475,000 | 3/14/2008 |
| 2541 LAGRANGE TRL | $359,900 | 3/3/2008 |
| 5644 TECUMSEH DR | $350,000 | 2/25/2008 |
| 2608 ULYSSES RD | $329,900 | 2/20/2008 |
| 2545 LAGRANGE TRL | $385,000 | 2/4/2008 |
| 5616 BURNSIDE CIR | $381,400 | 12/21/2007 |
| 2574 CARTHAGE | $350,000 | 12/21/2007 |
| 5693 BURNSIDE CIR | $390,000 | 11/27/2007 |
| 2505 ULYSSES RD | $385,000 | 11/19/2007 |
| 5652 BURNSIDE CIR | $386,000 | 11/9/2007 |
| 2588 ULYSSES RD | $375,900 | 10/2/2007 |
| 2644 BRENTON RIDGE DR | $485,000 | 8/30/2007 |
| 5682 BURNSIDE CIR | $339,400 | 8/31/2007 |
| 2684 BRETON RIDGE DR | $515,900 | 8/16/2007 |
| 5694 BURNSIDE CIR | $340,400 | 8/24/2007 |
| FARNSWORTH DR | $285,400 | 8/15/2007 |
| 5790 FARNSWORTH DR | $550,000 | 8/15/2007 |
| 2585 ULYSSES RD | $434,000 | 8/13/2007 |
| 5664 BURNSIDE CIR | $365,000 | 8/2/2007 |
| 5624 BURNSIDE CIR | $388,800 | 7/31/2007 |
| 5603 BURNSIDE CIR | $390,000 | 7/26/2007 |
| 2603 ULYSSES RD | $401,600 | 6/28/2007 |
| 5686 BURNSIDE CIR | $352,800 | 6/18/2007 |
| 5647 BURNSIDE CIR | $338,000 | 6/28/2007 |
| 2688 BRETON RIDGE DR | $510,000 | 6/19/2007 |
| 5693 BURNSIDE CIR | $380,000 | 6/13/2007 |
| 5697 BURNSIDE CIR | $356,000 | 5/24/2007 |
| 5678 BURNSIDE CIR | $375,000 | 4/2/2007 |
| 5604 BURNSIDE CIR | $415,000 | 3/30/2007 |
| 2652 ANTIETAM TRL | $600,000 | 4/2/2007 |
| 5663 TECUMSEH DR | $345,000 | 2/23/2007 |
| 5658 BURNSIDE CIR | $337,000 | 2/9/2007 |
| 5725 ROANOAKE TRL | $405,000 | 2/6/2007 |
| 5647 TECUMSEH DR | $400,600 | 1/31/2007 |
| 2597 ULYSSES RD | $385,000 | 1/24/2007 |
| 2643 ULYSSES RD | $331,700 | 12/20/2006 |
| 5607 BURNSIDE CIR | $349,000 | 12/29/2006 |
| 5653 BURNSIDE CIR | $365,000 | 12/29/2006 |
| 5648 BURNSIDE CIR | $333,600 | 12/22/2006 |
| 5640 BURNSIDE CIR | $395,000 | 12/20/2006 |
| 5660 BURNSIDE CIR | $404,600 | 11/30/2006 |
| 5631 TECUMSEH DR | $354,500 | 11/30/2006 |
| 5646 BURNSIDE CIR | $417,000 | 11/2/2006 |
| 5628 BURNSIDE CIR | $393,200 | 11/30/2006 |
| 5659 TECUMSEH DR | $343,000 | 11/20/2006 |
| 2601 ULYSSES RD | $311,000 | 11/17/2006 |
| 5612 BURNSIDE CIR | $420,000 | 11/15/2006 |
| 5633 TECUMSEH DR | $361,500 | 11/14/2006 |
| 5636 BURNSIDE CIR | $360,000 | 11/15/2006 |
| 5613 BURNSIDE CIR | $374,000 | 11/13/2006 |
| 5623 BURNSIDE CIR | $406,100 | 11/3/2006 |
| 5641 BURNSIDE CIR | $389,500 | 11/1/2006 |
| 5654 BURNSIDE CIR | $402,800 | 10/27/2006 |
| 5666 BURNSIDE CIR | $386,200 | 10/24/2006 |
| 5651 TECUMSEH DR | $353,000 | 10/12/2006 |
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Joe Manausa is a real estate blogger, a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }
As an investor in SE Florida I see the bottom is in for the basic 3/1 1100 sq ft house and in fact they have risen about 20% since March as the 1st time buyers and investors are now putting in multiple bids. But in the newer higher end subdivisions the prices are still dropping but not for long as they are below replacement value at $100/sq.ft. I also see many foreign buyers with their strong currency’s buying up bargain properties. Soon we will have an influx of baby boomers buying their dream retirement homes before they jump in price.
I hope you’re right David. We’ll have to see what the post-November market does. Remember, the government “stimulated” the market with the First Time Homebuyer’s Tax Credit, so we should anticipate this part of the market was most affected. Hopefully the momentum will carry forward.
Joe,
Interesting data on Bull Run. I do think that the data needs a bit more context, in that there are several distinct areas in Bull Run (custom/higher end/moderate)–in particular, there are two distinct areas near Kerry Forest Parkway. The area southwest of Kerry Forest Parkway (principally represented by sales on Manassas Way and Halleck Ln) is composed of homes and lots that appear to be roughly 20% smaller relative to the homes north of Kerry Forest Parkway. The features/finishes appear to be not as substantial as those northeast of the parkway, and the homes are marketed as rentals and lease-to-own, in addition to outright sales. Not surprisingly, these homes are generally (though not always, apparently) priced substantially less. This reminds me somewhat of the distinct areas in Piney-Z and Southwood. Do you see sales on Manassas Way/Halleck Ln significantly affecting prices in other parts of the subdivision? How has this played out in areas like Piney-Z and Southwood–i.e., can a subdivision maintain distinct pricing structures or do prices tend to regress to the mean?
Hey Paul, thanks for visiting and commenting.
I think your observations are very insightful. Yes, were I doing a valuation on a specific home in Bull Run, I would segment the community. The purpose of this blog is to provide overall market information; it takes too much work for one person to do this and single-home specific.
On the other hand, if I owned a home in Bull Run, I would understand that ALL
sections of Bull Run have an impact on the value of my home. Just because the developer and/or builders started changing the standard does not mean that a home is immune to surrounding activity.
Buyers are looking for value right now. They will pass up a few bells and whistles to get more square feet and lower sales price.
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