Newsletter Archives
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We appreciate your feedback, whether positive or negative, and look forward to delivering the most up to date information on the Tallahassee housing market.
Previous Editions Of The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter
How Depressing Is Depreciation? - 101 downloads
Depreciation has been the trend among Tallahassee homes for more than five years, so I felt it time to provide a summary of fallen real estate values.
Our first three pages of this months’ newsletter target depreciation by important segments of the housing market, and dispersion has been far less than fair.
Year Over Year Declines In 9 Of Past 12 Months - 170 downloadsYear over year home sales declined in March again, making it the fifth straight (and 9 of the last 12) month of declines. We measure year over year sales (for example, closed home sales in March 2012 were 14% lower than closed home sales in March 2011) in order to get a non-seasonal view of the direction of the housing market. The trend we are on suggests 2012 is threatening yet another “worst year ever” for Tallahassee home sales.
When The Market Will Turn And A Surprise Announcement You Never Saw Coming - 132 downloadsThe 48th Edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter is ready for download, and it shows the challenge ahead of us as we work through the glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee. If you are even slightly curious about the housing market and when all of this nonsense is going to end, then you should check out page 3 of this month's report. Additionally, we have a surprise announcement on page 8 of this month's newsletter that is just absolutely beautiful! See the announcement and more by following the link below:
One In Ten Home Sales Is New Construction - 119 downloads
As the Tallahassee housing market continues to work through the glut of inventory created from 2002 through 2006, currently active home builders suffer in the most difficult market on record.
The first graph in our report measures new construction against existing home sales, and it clearly shows a 22+ year low in the ratio of new home sales to overall home sales.
See a summary of the current state of the Tallahassee real estate market for February 2012, and see why the 2012 housing market is poised to be another record setting year.
3 Warning Signs That 2012 Might Set A New Foreclosure Sale Record - 191 downloads
It’s official, foreclosure activity is definitely on the rise in the Tallahassee real estate market.
New lis pendens filings have risen in 4 out of the past 5 months, and foreclosure sales increased in both of the past two months.
This is not coincidence, rather it is evidence that the robo-signing scandal delays are behind us and banks will be pursuing delinquent loans.
Goodbye 2011 … And Good Riddance - 132 downloads
The 45th Edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter is ready for download, featuring a loud and boisterous "Goodbye" to 2011.
With the recent announcement by the National Association of REALTORS that they have been over-stating sales since 2007, it's no wonder homebuyer confidence continues to decline.
Sales levels are at record lows, so what will our final glimpse of 2011 reveal. Will this be the "WORST YEAR EVER?"
Take a look at this month's newsletter and see how 2011 stacks up to the past 20 years for home sales in Tallahassee.
Inventory Of Homes Continues To Fall - 179 downloads
The 44th Edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter is ready for download, explaining why many are misinterpreting some of the apparently positive reports found in the Tallahassee housing market.
The number of homes being listed for sale in the Tallahassee MLS each day has been on a decline for more than 3 years, and our current rate of 11 homes each day is down 46% since December of 2008.
Inventory levels are dropping and some neighborhoods are reporting a rise in the average price of homes being sold, so why is this not good news?
Take a look at this month's newsletter to see the evidence
Home Values Same As 8 Years Ago - 180 downloads
The average value of homes recently sold in Tallahassee has fallen below $90 per square foot, which brings the trend of sold home values to the same level as last seen in the Fall of 2003.
Unfortunately, this means that anybody who purchased or refinanced a home in the last 8 years has a very good chance of being “upside down” in their mortgage. This creates a “trap” for people who want or need to move, and this trap is the single greatest reason that we are seeing a slow-down of home sales in Tallahassee
New Foreclosure Filings On The Rise? - 138 downloads
The number of new lis pendens filings reversed in August for the first time since January 2010, raising concerns that the number of distressed properties entering the market will continue to rise for a longer period of time.
The million dollar question is whether this was just a freak event, or if it is a sign that lenders have resolved their legal issues and are going to aggressively pursue foreclosures as a means to resolve their pools of poorly performing loans.
New Market Bottom And Falling Prices - 502 downloads
The average price of homes sold continues to decline, and the current one-year trend has the average home price down below $163,000.
The biggest news of course is that a new market bottom has been reached in Leon County home sales, and all the evidence that we’ve compiled suggests that it will be getting worse before it gets any better.
Home Sales At 53% Of The 21 Year Average - 175 downloads
The current number of homes selling each day is very close to setting a new 21 year low, and this rate of sales is running at about 53% of the 21 year average.
This month's newsletter includes graphs on new home sales, new home permits, lot sales, supply and demand, pending home sales, and the home seller success rate report. Additionally, the year over year home sales report shows how we stand compared to this time last year.
Home Sales Threaten To Form New Market Bottom - 539 downloads
The trend of homes selling each month has been on a decline since the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit in the summer of 2010. Currently, the normal summer selling season is very slow, and we could be faced with a new market bottom before the end of this year.
The first graph inside shows that we have all but erased the sales gains found during the run of the Tax Credit, as many of the would-be homebuyers are not able to first sell their current homes and therefore cannot come forward as buyers. This is the greatest problem in the housing market, and it is not restricted to just Tallahassee.
Existing Home Sale Values Tumble - 556 downloads
Home values continue to decline in the Tallahassee housing market, and the graph below is showing signs that existing home sale values are declining at a far higher rate than we have seen in recent years.
The graph shows new construction prices have declined, but are “back to normal” in terms of being higher than the resale values.
Climbing Up From The Bottom? - 369 downloads
If you are a “the glass is half full” type of person, you will be happy to observe that single family detached home sales are off to their best start in the past three years. Of course, if your glass is half empty, you can note that 1st quarter home sales were the third-worst in 21 years. My glass is half full!
With just over 600 single family home sales recorded in the 1st Quarter 2011, our market is selling at only 75% of the pace it saw in 1991 when the population of Leon County was 43% lower than it is today. If we were to adjust this report to measure home sales per capita, the resulting graph would be far worse than we see inside.
Bouncing Along The Bottom - 352 downloads
Tallahassee traditionally sees about 10 closed sales per day, on average, posted in the MLS. Our graph inside shows the one-year trend of closed home sales going back to 2002, and I have highlighted mid-March trends for the past four years.
The question that we all want answered (and only time can do it), is what will we see from the daily closed sales in the MLS going forward. Most likely, the next few months will show a down-trend as the anniversary of the Homebuyer Tax Credit hits at the end of June.
Chiseling Away At The Glut - 608 downloads
The current supply of homes is lower than it has been since December 2009 and is generally lower than any level since we started keeping track of historical supply levels back in 2008.
Unfortunately, the current rate of demand has dropped even faster than has the supply, so our relative level of supply, measured in months of supply of homes, still hovers near the 1 year mark. It is generally accepted that a balanced market occurs when the relative supply of homes measures between five and six months of supply, so our current inventory is roughly double what the market needs to find equilibrium.
2011 - The Year Of The Foreclosure? - 555 downloads
During 2010, there were 1,430 lis pendens filed and 751 foreclosure sales. The current ratio of foreclosure sales to lis pendens filings is roughly 53% , but is due to the acceleration of previous years filings finally making it to a foreclosure sale.
The newsletter discusses how this is partially good news, but also how it means that foreclosures will dominate the landscape of the 2011 Tallahassee housing market.
Failed Sellers Cast Shadow Over Market - 380 downloads
The shadow inventory of homes continues to add to the inventory of homes that need to be sold, but which are not currently on the market.
We often hear of homes in foreclosure, bank-owned properties, and homes which have delinquent mortgages on them adding to the shadow inventory. What we seldom hear about though is the growing list of frustrated home sellers who continue to be cast aside by home buyers who are either unwilling or unable to buy their homes.
The mounting growth of the shadow inventory in 2010 will most likely begin the unveiling process in January, when many of these home sellers will “give it another go.”
The normal trend of supply side growth will be closely monitored and reported here in the January edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter.
Market Reversal Has Occurred - 624 downloads
After seeing the housing market appear to begin a recovery during the Obama stimulus program last year, we have seen a complete reversal since the end of the programs.
To qualify for the credit, home buyers had to have a home under contract before the end of April, with a planned closing date before the end of June (later extended). Where will this take the market now?
The Plight Of Home Builders - 518 downloads
Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Such is the situation for Tallahassee home builders. To make a living (and feed their families) they must build more homes. But for builders to see great times again, they need to see the housing market return to a balance of supply and demand.
The glut of homes on the market in Tallahassee is causing values to drop and the building of more homes will only increase this pressure.
Change, Change, Change - 513 downloads
So much for the Homebuyer Tax Credit and how it would bail out the real estate market. It seems as if we are almost back to the exact same place as when the programs kicked-in last year.
Are You A Bull Or A Bear? - 378 downloads
While some of the loudest voices in the investment markets are calling for the real beginning of the housing recovery to start next year, others are saying the problems will be around for many years to come. Take a look at our conclusions, which are based upon sound information, not hype and speculation. We use real market data from home sales in Tallahassee, measured on a daily basis, to keep tight tabs on a brutal real estate market.
Dropping Demand-Side Creates Grave Concerns - 442 downloads
Supply and Demand reports tell the story for a real estate market that is struggling to bring home buyers to the closing table. A failure to return consumption levels back to historic norms is causing a backlog in the supply of existing home sales and is negating any need for new home construction.
An End To The Stimulus Brings Questions - 280 downloads
The Homebuyer Tax Credit has come and gone, and by the looks of it the real estate market benefited as planned by our leaders in Washington.
The real question now is will the stimulus provided over the past year be a starting point in the housing market recovery, or will it have been just a wasteful exercise in government spending that only acted as a temporary band-aid for a harder ailing market.
More Home Sellers Than Buyers In Tallahassee - 454 downloads
The glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee has made it very difficult for local home builders to keep their crews working.
Currently, there are over 12 months of supply of homes on the market, more than double the amount that would be considered “normal” in a balanced market. Too much supply means that new homes are not needed and the new permits and new sales figures from the County support this.
In the graph below, new home building permits are in red, new home sales are in green, and both are at historically low levels. It would be great to burn through the current supply and get our builders back to work, something that would significantly benefit our local economy.
Exuberance Sidelined With Signs Of Caution - 404 downloads
The Homebuyer Tax Credit ended (for new contracts) over a month ago, and already there are signs in the market that this will significantly slow the recovery.
While the National Association Of REALTORS® will ride the positive reports through the end of the June closings, I am going to recommend treading lightly as we observe two key trends taking shape.
End Of Tax Credit Leaves Many Guessing - 344 downloads
The Homebuyer Tax Credit was created to stimulate the housing market, and home sales reports suggest that it was highly effective.
But now we are wondering if the momentum gained in the housing market nationwide will continue after the last of the buyers close in the month of June.
The next issue that the U.S. housing market must face is the lack of equity in existing houses. It is this equity that historically has been used as the down-payment on the purchase of the next home.
Can You Stand Some Positive Housing News - 279 downloads
For long-term readers of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, you know I cannot get enough of the graph below.
We sat in quiet anguish each month, for 39 straight months, as we posted one after another record setting string of months of consecutive year-over-year declines in home sales.
Now that the news is good, I look forward to seeing the year over year home sales report each month.
I like seeing the steady growth in the number of home sales, as we inch higher and higher towards historical norms. And there are some other positive signs in our housing market.
Don’t Be Fooled By Changes Coming - 649 downloads
Everybody knows that average home prices are dropping in Tallahassee. We also know that median home prices are dropping too. But how does that compare with real appreciation or depreciation and how do we rely on what is being reported?
Seasonal Inventory Surge - 429 downloads
Since January, homes coming onto the market outpaced homes leaving the market by a whopping 313 homes, a 14% increase in just two months. While many homeowners annually choose this time of year to enter the market to sell their home, this year it coincides with a recovery that
Moving Up From The Bottom - 488 downloads
Tallahassee home sales are increasing every day, with considerable proof that the market bottom was reached in August of 2009.
But for homeowners who still wish to sell their homes, falling prices make them feel as if “market bottom” should be defined in terms of valuations as opposed to unit sales.
As we move forward from the bottom of the market, falling prices is the natural order of market cycles, as affordability increases the potential buyer pool for the glut of homes for sale (and those in the shadow inventory) in Tallahassee.
Some price ranges and areas might break out of the “over-supply” category this year (perhaps $150K-$200K in the NE), but for the rest of the market, falling home prices should be expected throughout 2010 and well into 2011.
3 In A Row - And This One Was Big - 534 downloads
Tallahassee home sales rose 81% in December compared to December of 2008. This was the third consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The year-over-year sales report usually has gain and loss cycles of up to 9 months, but after an unthinkable run of 39 months of declines, we are hoping to record a long string of gains.
2010 Housing Forecast - 647 downloads
Many people think that last year’s record-setting poor performance was a total surprise, with nobody expecting that the Tallahassee real estate market could sink so low, but that is not true. See how the market performed versus our forecast from September of 2008.
Tis The Season To Look Back And Remember - 301 downloads
This year seasonality was different. I think it is safe to say that we will look back at 2009 as the toughest year the Tallahassee housing market has ever faced.
Getting A Handle On The Shadow Inventory - 529 downloads
National housing reports downplay the glut of supply of homes on the market, as well as the ever-growing supply of homes in the Shadow Inventory. It is very difficult to measure the shadow inventory of homes (homes that need to be sold but are not on the market for one reason or another).
Value Investors Licking Their Lips - 678 downloads
Real estate investment has always been a buy and hold business. Development should be left to professionals who do it on a full-time basis, but that was not really the case during the first part of this decade.
Foreclosures Finally Here - 683 downloads
Tallahassee endured another 180 lis pendens filings during the month of September, a year over year increase of 59%.
The Light At The End Of The Tunnel - 584 downloads
The last three months have been showing a slowing rate of decline, and we have seen positive moves in the Tallahassee MLS. Pending home sales have stopped declining and have shown a slight rise, and daily home sales have done the same. Is this the light at the end of the tunnel?
First Positive Signs In The Housing Market - 646 downloads
The first signs of a rebound in the number of home sales in a market can be predicted by first seeing a rise in the number of new contracts that are executed between buyers and sellers.
Summer Season Ends Softly - 729 downloads
The Tallahassee housing market is at the lowest point since I began recording home sales in 1991. In the graph contained within, you can observe the housing market decline from 1991 on the left to 2009 on the right.
Midyear 2009 Sees Record Continue - 779 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Version 9, Number 10
Calling All Buyers - 1049 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter - July 6, 2009
Lurking In The Shadows - 1039 downloads8th edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter
Nearing The Bottom - 865 downloadsNearing The Bottom - The 7th Edition of the 2009 Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter
Slow And Falling - 785 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter. Volume 9, Number 6. Published on 5/4/2009.
A Mixed Blessing - 1128 downloads
There is some good news and some bads news that we observe during this report.
Pricing Corrections Starting To Hit - 947 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Volume 9, Number 4
Strap On Your Helmets - 696 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Version 9, Number 3
Looking For The Bottom? - 611 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, Version 9, Number 2
Keeping An Eye On Inventory - 714 downloadsKeeping An Eye On Inventory - Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Version 9, Number 1
{ 7 comments… read them below or add one }
do you have an Article on Planning your next move…1, 3 and five year plan for a family?
Hey Tony, in what context? Financial?
I found your information very helpful. Thank you for providing the newsletter.
Just wanted to say I’ve enjoyed browsing your site, keep having success!
Hector
PS I use to be a C21 franchise owner also
Thanks for helping us stay current on the market!!! This is great information.
I am pleased to begin receiving the Newsletter and it makes me feel much better informed after having read it. Thank you!
That’s great Bette. Don’t hesitate to comment/question/dispute anything you read in the newsletter here, it’s a great way for all of us to learn more about the market.