Newsletter Archives
Congratulations, you have completed the subscription and confirmation process for the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter. Below, please find previously published editions which can be downloaded at any time.
We appreciate your feedback, whether positive or negative, and look forward to delivering the most up to date information on the Tallahassee housing market.
Previous Editions Of The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter
Are You A Bull Or A Bear? - 310 downloads
While some of the loudest voices in the investment markets are calling for the real beginning of the housing recovery to start next year, others are saying the problems will be around for many years to come. Take a look at our conclusions, which are based upon sound information, not hype and speculation. We use real market data from home sales in Tallahassee, measured on a daily basis, to keep tight tabs on a brutal real estate market.
Dropping Demand-Side Creates Grave Concerns - 391 downloads
Supply and Demand reports tell the story for a real estate market that is struggling to bring home buyers to the closing table. A failure to return consumption levels back to historic norms is causing a backlog in the supply of existing home sales and is negating any need for new home construction.
An End To The Stimulus Brings Questions - 232 downloads
The Homebuyer Tax Credit has come and gone, and by the looks of it the real estate market benefited as planned by our leaders in Washington.
The real question now is will the stimulus provided over the past year be a starting point in the housing market recovery, or will it have been just a wasteful exercise in government spending that only acted as a temporary band-aid for a harder ailing market.
More Home Sellers Than Buyers In Tallahassee - 405 downloads
The glut of homes for sale in Tallahassee has made it very difficult for local home builders to keep their crews working.
Currently, there are over 12 months of supply of homes on the market, more than double the amount that would be considered “normal” in a balanced market. Too much supply means that new homes are not needed and the new permits and new sales figures from the County support this.
In the graph below, new home building permits are in red, new home sales are in green, and both are at historically low levels. It would be great to burn through the current supply and get our builders back to work, something that would significantly benefit our local economy.
Exuberance Sidelined With Signs Of Caution - 359 downloads
The Homebuyer Tax Credit ended (for new contracts) over a month ago, and already there are signs in the market that this will significantly slow the recovery.
While the National Association Of REALTORS® will ride the positive reports through the end of the June closings, I am going to recommend treading lightly as we observe two key trends taking shape.
End Of Tax Credit Leaves Many Guessing - 306 downloads
The Homebuyer Tax Credit was created to stimulate the housing market, and home sales reports suggest that it was highly effective.
But now we are wondering if the momentum gained in the housing market nationwide will continue after the last of the buyers close in the month of June.
The next issue that the U.S. housing market must face is the lack of equity in existing houses. It is this equity that historically has been used as the down-payment on the purchase of the next home.
Can You Stand Some Positive Housing News - 228 downloads
For long-term readers of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, you know I cannot get enough of the graph below.
We sat in quiet anguish each month, for 39 straight months, as we posted one after another record setting string of months of consecutive year-over-year declines in home sales.
Now that the news is good, I look forward to seeing the year over year home sales report each month.
I like seeing the steady growth in the number of home sales, as we inch higher and higher towards historical norms. And there are some other positive signs in our housing market.
Don’t Be Fooled By Changes Coming - 596 downloads
Everybody knows that average home prices are dropping in Tallahassee. We also know that median home prices are dropping too. But how does that compare with real appreciation or depreciation and how do we rely on what is being reported?
Seasonal Inventory Surge - 376 downloads
Since January, homes coming onto the market outpaced homes leaving the market by a whopping 313 homes, a 14% increase in just two months. While many homeowners annually choose this time of year to enter the market to sell their home, this year it coincides with a recovery that
Moving Up From The Bottom - 436 downloads
Tallahassee home sales are increasing every day, with considerable proof that the market bottom was reached in August of 2009.
But for homeowners who still wish to sell their homes, falling prices make them feel as if “market bottom” should be defined in terms of valuations as opposed to unit sales.
As we move forward from the bottom of the market, falling prices is the natural order of market cycles, as affordability increases the potential buyer pool for the glut of homes for sale (and those in the shadow inventory) in Tallahassee.
Some price ranges and areas might break out of the “over-supply” category this year (perhaps $150K-$200K in the NE), but for the rest of the market, falling home prices should be expected throughout 2010 and well into 2011.
3 In A Row - And This One Was Big - 492 downloads
Tallahassee home sales rose 81% in December compared to December of 2008. This was the third consecutive month of year-over-year gains. The year-over-year sales report usually has gain and loss cycles of up to 9 months, but after an unthinkable run of 39 months of declines, we are hoping to record a long string of gains.
2010 Housing Forecast - 591 downloads
Many people think that last year’s record-setting poor performance was a total surprise, with nobody expecting that the Tallahassee real estate market could sink so low, but that is not true. See how the market performed versus our forecast from September of 2008.
Tis The Season To Look Back And Remember - 254 downloads
This year seasonality was different. I think it is safe to say that we will look back at 2009 as the toughest year the Tallahassee housing market has ever faced.
Getting A Handle On The Shadow Inventory - 482 downloads
National housing reports downplay the glut of supply of homes on the market, as well as the ever-growing supply of homes in the Shadow Inventory. It is very difficult to measure the shadow inventory of homes (homes that need to be sold but are not on the market for one reason or another).
Value Investors Licking Their Lips - 634 downloads
Real estate investment has always been a buy and hold business. Development should be left to professionals who do it on a full-time basis, but that was not really the case during the first part of this decade.
Foreclosures Finally Here - 641 downloads
Tallahassee endured another 180 lis pendens filings during the month of September, a year over year increase of 59%.
The Light At The End Of The Tunnel - 531 downloads
The last three months have been showing a slowing rate of decline, and we have seen positive moves in the Tallahassee MLS. Pending home sales have stopped declining and have shown a slight rise, and daily home sales have done the same. Is this the light at the end of the tunnel?
First Positive Signs In The Housing Market - 606 downloads
The first signs of a rebound in the number of home sales in a market can be predicted by first seeing a rise in the number of new contracts that are executed between buyers and sellers.
Summer Season Ends Softly - 687 downloads
The Tallahassee housing market is at the lowest point since I began recording home sales in 1991. In the graph contained within, you can observe the housing market decline from 1991 on the left to 2009 on the right.
Midyear 2009 Sees Record Continue - 730 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Version 9, Number 10
Calling All Buyers - 989 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter - July 6, 2009
Lurking In The Shadows - 996 downloads8th edition of the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter
Nearing The Bottom - 817 downloadsNearing The Bottom - The 7th Edition of the 2009 Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter
Slow And Falling - 750 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter. Volume 9, Number 6. Published on 5/4/2009.
A Mixed Blessing - 1071 downloads
There is some good news and some bads news that we observe during this report.
Pricing Corrections Starting To Hit - 886 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Volume 9, Number 4
Strap On Your Helmets - 652 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Version 9, Number 3
Looking For The Bottom? - 569 downloadsTallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, Version 9, Number 2
Keeping An Eye On Inventory - 666 downloadsKeeping An Eye On Inventory - Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter Version 9, Number 1
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{ 5 comments… read them below or add one }
do you have an Article on Planning your next move…1, 3 and five year plan for a family?
Hey Tony, in what context? Financial?
I found your information very helpful. Thank you for providing the newsletter.
Just wanted to say I’ve enjoyed browsing your site, keep having success!
Hector
PS I use to be a C21 franchise owner also
Thanks for helping us stay current on the market!!! This is great information.