Comments on: How To Measure Real Estate Appreciation http://www.manausa.com/how-to-measure-real-estate-appreciation/ All About Tallahassee Housing Fri, 19 Mar 2010 21:22:09 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Joe Manausa http://www.manausa.com/how-to-measure-real-estate-appreciation/comment-page-1/#comment-4140 Joe Manausa Mon, 15 Jun 2009 10:22:38 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=3651#comment-4140 Jacob, thanks for commenting. I have to question your belief in an approach on valuation that does not consider the behavior of buyers. Real estate is a commodity, and it IS the behavior of buyers that determines what real estate will sell for. The best computer systems that estimate value are solely based upon past buyer behavior (and that is why they are no good, because they do not know how to measure current buyer behavior). Jacob, thanks for commenting.

I have to question your belief in an approach on valuation that does not consider the behavior of buyers.

Real estate is a commodity, and it IS the behavior of buyers that determines what real estate will sell for. The best computer systems that estimate value are solely based upon past buyer behavior (and that is why they are no good, because they do not know how to measure current buyer behavior).

]]> By: Jacob Martin http://www.manausa.com/how-to-measure-real-estate-appreciation/comment-page-1/#comment-4128 Jacob Martin Mon, 15 Jun 2009 05:28:02 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=3651#comment-4128 Appraisers generally use the comparative-sales approach which justifies current pricing based on the irrational behavior of buyers.There are new generation tools in Real Estate which do complete evaluation & give the true value of any property along with the ability to predict how much appreciation it will achieve in the coming years. Appraisers generally use the comparative-sales approach which justifies current pricing based on the irrational behavior of buyers.There are new generation tools in Real Estate which do complete evaluation & give the true value of any property along with the ability to predict how much appreciation it will achieve in the coming years.

]]> By: Housing Price Per Square Foot http://www.manausa.com/how-to-measure-real-estate-appreciation/comment-page-1/#comment-2136 Housing Price Per Square Foot Wed, 13 May 2009 11:57:34 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=3651#comment-2136 [...] I was doing research into Tallahassee housing appreciation, I found that a simple methodology utilized historic information on home sales and specifically the [...] [...] I was doing research into Tallahassee housing appreciation, I found that a simple methodology utilized historic information on home sales and specifically the [...]

]]> By: Joe Manausa http://www.manausa.com/how-to-measure-real-estate-appreciation/comment-page-1/#comment-2092 Joe Manausa Tue, 12 May 2009 21:02:02 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=3651#comment-2092 Hey Doug, wow, great (long) question. I will do some homework and make this a blog post next week. Thanks for the great question. Hey Doug, wow, great (long) question. I will do some homework and make this a blog post next week. Thanks for the great question.

]]> By: Doug Simpson http://www.manausa.com/how-to-measure-real-estate-appreciation/comment-page-1/#comment-2084 Doug Simpson Tue, 12 May 2009 17:00:47 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=3651#comment-2084 Joe, A couple of things for you. I really appreciate the objective analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market you provide. I like your strait forward honest approach without the typical hype. It is refreshing that you seem to be different and I appreciate your integrity. I know of no other Real Estate professional in this market that says it like it is. On another note I would like to see some studies and analysis by you on the condo market in Tallahassee and more specifically the downtown market. Here are my observations and would love to hear yours. I guess the three main properties downtown are the completed Tennyson and Tallahassee Center and the soon to be completed Plaza Tower. I've seen ads for units in the Tennyson and they seem to take forever to sell. A look at the property records show the vast majority of sales back in 2006 when it opened, a few in 2007, 2 in 2008 and none so far in 2009. That’s with the developer still having 3 units in their possession. My questions on this building are, is this a dead building now?.....were the sales in 2006 primarily for college students to live in, while in school and 2010 will see those units dumped back on the market? Regarding the Tallahassee Center, the developer has been advertising on their marketing site, the close out of the last 14 remaining units.... For a building that opened in 2006 with 111 units and still having 14 units 3 years later, does not reflect well on the downtown market. Not to mention that some of the price discounts from the developer approach almost 50%. Does this building have a large percentage of college student housing that started in 2006 as well, and will be dumped in 2010? A quick look at the property records show 5 sales for 2008 (does not include sales to the same party and includes one unit that sold twice in one year). That unit might need to go into the Tallahassee condo hall of fame in this market. I see no 2009 sales. One interesting sale was unit 808, sold for $330,000 on 04/2008, a couple of months later the developer slashed prices and for 61 more square feet on the same floor you could get a unit from the developer for $265,000. Not a bad investment, you lost $67,000 in a matter of months, provided the developer doesn't take less than the new prices that have languished for almost a year. Of course most Realtors would only comment on what a wonderful view, and be oblivious to the market and its trends. (my opinion as a generalization) One more point.....HOA fees, not sure what the Tennyson and Plaza are or going to be, but the Tallahassee Center list on their sales brochure a rate of $ .52 a foot (per month) I could have sworn I saw it listed earlier at .62 , but lets take .52. That’s outrageous, I have lived in the Buckhead section of Atlanta and typical HOA fees are the .30 range. I hope people realize that in a building like the Tallahassee center with a 1200 sq. ft unit you will pay $624 per month......I wonder how many people realize this? These buildings have to get these fees in line, because I think they are a detriment to sales. With all this said , I wonder what the sales status will be of the Plaza Tower coming to the market now? This building has 202 units, I’m sure a lot of pre-sales when there was easy mortgage money and lending restrictions required that you be breathing. I'm not 100% sure, but I believe that Fannie Mae has new condo restrictions that require the building to be 70% sold, before they will buy the mortgages. Fannie Mae has also recently become the only game in town regarding purchasing these mortgages. Can anyone say BLOOD BATH for downtown condos? The slow economy (understatement), rising unemployment, stricter lending requirements, higher down payments, tougher to sell an existing house in order to buy, higher cost to maintain (HOA fees), and decreasing prices can not be good for the downtown condo market. My last and final point. In order for there to be a successful live / work community in the downtown, you need the close proximity of a super market, different restaurants and shops that stay open after working hours. These services are all common in successful live work communities. I just don't get it....can the downtown condo market really be successful?......is it a good investment?......do you see developer bankruptcies? How do you think the cost of ownership compares to a single family home? Would love your input and observations on this market. Sincerely, Doug Joe,
A couple of things for you. I really appreciate the objective analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market you provide. I like your strait forward honest approach without the typical hype. It is refreshing that you seem to be different and I appreciate your integrity. I know of no other Real Estate professional in this market that says it like it is. On another note I would like to see some studies and analysis by you on the condo market in Tallahassee and more specifically the downtown market. Here are my observations and would love to hear yours. I guess the three main properties downtown are the completed Tennyson and Tallahassee Center and the soon to be completed Plaza Tower. I’ve seen ads for units in the Tennyson and they seem to take forever to sell. A look at the property records show the vast majority of sales back in 2006 when it opened, a few in 2007, 2 in 2008 and none so far in 2009. That’s with the developer still having 3 units in their possession. My questions on this building are, is this a dead building now?…..were the sales in 2006 primarily for college students to live in, while in school and 2010 will see those units dumped back on the market? Regarding the Tallahassee Center, the developer has been advertising on their marketing site, the close out of the last 14 remaining units…. For a building that opened in 2006 with 111 units and still having 14 units 3 years later, does not reflect well on the downtown market. Not to mention that some of the price discounts from the developer approach almost 50%. Does this building have a large percentage of college student housing that started in 2006 as well, and will be dumped in 2010? A quick look at the property records show 5 sales for 2008 (does not include sales to the same party and includes one unit that sold twice in one year). That unit might need to go into the Tallahassee condo hall of fame in this market. I see no 2009 sales. One interesting sale was unit 808, sold for $330,000 on 04/2008, a couple of months later the developer slashed prices and for 61 more square feet on the same floor you could get a unit from the developer for $265,000. Not a bad investment, you lost $67,000 in a matter of months, provided the developer doesn’t take less than the new prices that have languished for almost a year. Of course most Realtors would only comment on what a wonderful view, and be oblivious to the market and its trends. (my opinion as a generalization) One more point…..HOA fees, not sure what the Tennyson and Plaza are or going to be, but the Tallahassee Center list on their sales brochure a rate of $ .52 a foot (per month) I could have sworn I saw it listed earlier at .62 , but lets take .52. That’s outrageous, I have lived in the Buckhead section of Atlanta and typical HOA fees are the .30 range. I hope people realize that in a building like the Tallahassee center with a 1200 sq. ft unit you will pay $624 per month……I wonder how many people realize this? These buildings have to get these fees in line, because I think they are a detriment to sales. With all this said , I wonder what the sales status will be of the Plaza Tower coming to the market now? This building has 202 units, I’m sure a lot of pre-sales when there was easy mortgage money and lending restrictions required that you be breathing. I’m not 100% sure, but I believe that Fannie Mae has new condo restrictions that require the building to be 70% sold, before they will buy the mortgages. Fannie Mae has also recently become the only game in town regarding purchasing these mortgages. Can anyone say BLOOD BATH for downtown condos? The slow economy (understatement), rising unemployment, stricter lending requirements, higher down payments, tougher to sell an existing house in order to buy, higher cost to maintain (HOA fees), and decreasing prices can not be good for the downtown condo market. My last and final point. In order for there to be a successful live / work community in the downtown, you need the close proximity of a super market, different restaurants and shops that stay open after working hours. These services are all common in successful live work communities. I just don’t get it….can the downtown condo market really be successful?……is it a good investment?……do you see developer bankruptcies? How do you think the cost of ownership compares to a single family home? Would love your input and observations on this market.

Sincerely, Doug

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