Comments on: Predicting The Housing Market Turn http://www.manausa.com/housing-market-turn/ All About Tallahassee Housing Fri, 19 Mar 2010 21:22:09 -0400 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: Posts about Tri-State Real Estate (FL, GA and AL) as of June 25, 2009 | Real Estate Market Reports http://www.manausa.com/housing-market-turn/comment-page-1/#comment-5689 Posts about Tri-State Real Estate (FL, GA and AL) as of June 25, 2009 | Real Estate Market Reports Thu, 25 Jun 2009 17:23:32 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=4321#comment-5689 [...] [...] [...] [...]

]]> By: Joe Manausa http://www.manausa.com/housing-market-turn/comment-page-1/#comment-5679 Joe Manausa Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:01:16 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=4321#comment-5679 Thanks for the detailed comment Doug. I agree with all of your points. Here is something to consider ... The "turn of the market" is not the "return of the market." It is just the lowest point in unit sales. After the turn, prices will continue to drop until market equilibrium is reached (6 months of supply, plus or minus). Anyway, time will tell. This is my first call since November when I said it could happen this year (but no earlier than March). Thanks for the detailed comment Doug. I agree with all of your points. Here is something to consider …

The “turn of the market” is not the “return of the market.” It is just the lowest point in unit sales. After the turn, prices will continue to drop until market equilibrium is reached (6 months of supply, plus or minus).

Anyway, time will tell. This is my first call since November when I said it could happen this year (but no earlier than March).

]]> By: Doug http://www.manausa.com/housing-market-turn/comment-page-1/#comment-5673 Doug Thu, 25 Jun 2009 13:55:43 +0000 http://www.manausa.com/?p=4321#comment-5673 Joe, Not sure if I'm buying your call on the bottom. Unemployment not only has to stabilize, but also needs signs that employment is starting to rise, that is not happening nationally as well as locally. We also need a more diversified job market here. When Tallahassee had a chance to attract an new industry..(Biomass Gas & Electric)..it gave a cold shoulder to it. Other companies take note of a local communities business climate and this did not show us in a good light for attracting more outside industries. I know attracting industry is a long term problem and would not effect any short term bump in sales, but attracting industry and business could help balance an unequal tilt towards government jobs in this area. The sales increase you mention , now includes short sales and foreclosures. This phenomena has never been a factor in previous history of sales. With state and local tax revenue decreasing, the future effects on government unemployment has not showed the full effect yet. The 8% home buyer credit will expire in November.....causing a false bump up in sales before its end, but surely a fall off in sales activity after November. In past recessions and downturns the recovery was fueled by the consumer using their house ATM (home equity) to stimulate the economy. That source is gone now. The availability of credit to the consumers and small businesses is not there. Look at the local businesses that have closed or on the brink of closure.....how many are barely hanging on? There are so many variables that could prolong this mess, like higher interest rates, more unemployment, higher gas prices, a ballooning deficit fueling future inflation, higher taxes, more foreclosures. I just do not see the fundamental change that is needed to call a bottom yet. I hope I am wrong and you are right. Thank god you are not the typical industry mouth piece that seems to call a bottom every month. It will be an interesting next 6 months. Joe,
Not sure if I’m buying your call on the bottom. Unemployment not only has to stabilize, but also needs signs that employment is starting to rise, that is not happening nationally as well as locally. We also need a more diversified job market here. When Tallahassee had a chance to attract an new industry..(Biomass Gas & Electric)..it gave a cold shoulder to it. Other companies take note of a local communities business climate and this did not show us in a good light for attracting more outside industries. I know attracting industry is a long term problem and would not effect any short term bump in sales, but attracting industry and business could help balance an unequal tilt towards government jobs in this area. The sales increase you mention , now includes short sales and foreclosures. This phenomena has never been a factor in previous history of sales. With state and local tax revenue decreasing, the future effects on government unemployment has not showed the full effect yet. The 8% home buyer credit will expire in November…..causing a false bump up in sales before its end, but surely a fall off in sales activity after November. In past recessions and downturns the recovery was fueled by the consumer using their house ATM (home equity) to stimulate the economy. That source is gone now. The availability of credit to the consumers and small businesses is not there. Look at the local businesses that have closed or on the brink of closure…..how many are barely hanging on? There are so many variables that could prolong this mess, like higher interest rates, more unemployment, higher gas prices, a ballooning deficit fueling future inflation, higher taxes, more foreclosures. I just do not see the fundamental change that is needed to call a bottom yet. I hope I am wrong and you are right. Thank god you are not the typical industry mouth piece that seems to call a bottom every month. It will be an interesting next 6 months.

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