The Highgrove Subdivision in Tallahassee just recorded its first home sale since December of 2007! This hit me like a ton of bricks when I started conducting my analysis of what many (including myself) feel is an incredibly desirable neighborhood on the northeast side of Tallahassee. Located on the west side of Thomasville Road, just north of Killearn Estates, Highgrove features large homes in a great location.
So what could be causing this significant drought in home sales in Highgrove?
Highgrove Subdivision Has Low Turnover Rate
The first statistic that I wanted to check was “turnover rate.” For example, if there are 140 homes in Highgrove, and 14 sell every year, we would measure the turnover rate at 10%. Since 1991, Highgrove has averaged just under 10 resales per year, meaning a turnover rate of 7.1%.
A turnover rate of 7.1% could be interpreted as the average family that chooses to buy a home in Highgrove lives there over 14 years! While this is a somewhat low rate, it seems to make sense for an upper-end, northeast Tallahassee neighborhood.
Nobody Sold A Home In Highgrove in 2008
Still, I keep wondering how nobody sold a home in Highgrove for the past 16 months. During that period of time, the normal turnover would be 13 homes. Additionally, only 4 homes sold in 2006 and 7 in 2007, meaning there should have been some pent-up demand going in to 2008.
The next thing to do is look at pricing to see how “proud” the current homeowners are of their homes in Highgrove. You see, if nobody in Highgrove reacted to the falling prices in Tallahassee, then we would see a severe reaction by the buyers.
I think this real estate graph shows that Highgrove’s sales stopped at the end of 2007 and prices had not come down much. The rest of the market, in Highgrove’s price ranges, has dropped over 20%. I suspect we will have to see 2004 to 2003 asking prices before things get going back on the normal rate in Highgrove. There has to be quite a bit of pent-up need to sell in Highgrove, as only 70 resales have occurred this decade, which is 22 short of normal.
Historic Existing Home Sales In Highgrove
| Property Address | Price | Sale Date |
| 1984 CHATSWORTH WAY | $345,000 | 12/19/2007 |
| 4825 HIGH GROVE RD | $485,000 | 12/4/2007 |
| 4533 HIGH GROVE RD | $350,000 | 8/15/2007 |
| 4859 HIGH GROVE RD | $480,000 | 8/14/2007 |
| 4571 HIGH GROVE RD | $575,000 | 8/10/2007 |
| 4545 HIGH GROVE RD | $385,000 | 5/31/2007 |
| 4751 HIGH GROVE RD | $485,000 | 4/25/2007 |
| 1970 CHATSWORTH WAY | $580,000 | 7/7/2006 |
| 4770 LANCASHURE LN | $630,000 | 6/16/2006 |
| 4798 HIGH GROVE RD | $396,000 | 6/13/2006 |
| 4787 HIGH GROVE RD | $510,000 | 5/19/2006 |
| 4786 HIGH GROVE RD | $435,000 | 11/14/2005 |
| 1969 CHATSWORTH WAY | $617,500 | 9/28/2005 |
| 4972 GLEN CASTLE DR | $441,000 | 9/20/2005 |
| 4533 HIGH GROVE RD | $187,800 | 7/31/2005 |
| 4533 HIGH GROVE RD | $93,900 | 7/29/2005 |
| 4751 HIGH GROVE RD | $360,000 | 6/28/2005 |
| 4946 GLEN CASTLE DR | $590,000 | 5/2/2005 |
| 4763 HIGH GROVE RD | $390,000 | 4/28/2005 |
| 4794 HIGH GROVE RD | $470,000 | 3/21/2005 |
| 4770 LANCASHURE LN | $339,500 | 3/18/2005 |
| 4991 GLEN CASTLE DR | $349,000 | 3/10/2005 |
| 4991 GLEN CASTLE DR | $349,000 | 3/10/2005 |
| 1912 CHATSWORTH WAY | $357,000 | 2/28/2005 |
| 4811 HIGH GROVE RD | $415,000 | 2/16/2005 |
| 2018 CHATSWORTH WAY | $495,000 | 1/26/2005 |
| 4911 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $445,000 | 1/20/2005 |
| 1970 CHATSWORTH WAY | $530,000 | 6/11/2004 |
| 1978 CHATSWORTH WAY | $435,500 | 5/28/2004 |
| 1978 CHATSWORTH WAY | $435,500 | 5/28/2004 |
| 4607 HIGH GROVE RD | $410,000 | 1/30/2004 |
| 4545 HIGH GROVE RD | $297,500 | 12/15/2003 |
| 4743 LANCASHURE LN | $436,000 | 11/12/2003 |
| 1978 CHATSWORTH WAY | $400,000 | 9/30/2003 |
| 4972 GLEN CASTLE DR | $356,000 | 9/15/2003 |
| 4787 HIGH GROVE RD | $375,000 | 7/25/2003 |
| 4936 HIGH GROVE RD | $305,000 | 6/30/2003 |
| 4991 GLEN CASTLE DR | $295,000 | 6/30/2003 |
| 4910 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $280,000 | 1/24/2003 |
| 4947 GLEN CASTLE DR | $450,000 | 11/22/2002 |
| 1993 CHATSWORTH WAY | $259,900 | 10/7/2002 |
| 2009 CHATSWORTH WAY | $320,000 | 9/13/2002 |
| 4914 HIGH GROVE RD | $383,000 | 5/31/2002 |
| 2033 CHATSWORTH WAY | $365,000 | 5/9/2002 |
| 2001 CHATSWORTH WAY | $375,000 | 4/29/2002 |
| 4655 HIGH GROVE RD | $340,000 | 4/5/2002 |
| 2049 CHATSWORTH WAY | $320,000 | 1/25/2002 |
| 2008 CHATSWORTH WAY | $273,000 | 9/14/2001 |
| 4775 HIGH GROVE RD | $460,000 | 9/7/2001 |
| 4937 HIGH GROVE RD | $348,000 | 8/6/2001 |
| 1945 CHATSWORTH WAY | $285,000 | 7/23/2001 |
| 4963 GLEN CASTLE DR | $286,000 | 6/20/2001 |
| 4942 GLEN CASTLE DR | $401,000 | 4/30/2001 |
| 4947 GLEN CASTLE DR | $400,000 | 4/6/2001 |
| $280,000 | 12/7/2000 | |
| 2057 CHATSWORTH WAY | $375,000 | 11/30/2000 |
| 1913 CHATSWORTH WAY | $237,000 | 11/29/2000 |
| 4902 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $217,300 | 10/20/2000 |
| 4679 HIGH GROVE RD | $400,000 | 9/7/2000 |
| 4607 HIGH GROVE RD | $311,000 | 9/6/2000 |
| 4818 LANCASHURE LN | $270,000 | 8/4/2000 |
| 4728 HIGH GROVE RD | $325,000 | 7/31/2000 |
| 4667 HIGH GROVE RD | $435,000 | 7/14/2000 |
| 2018 CHATSWORTH WAY | $387,000 | 6/26/2000 |
| 1992 CHATSWORTH WAY | $383,000 | 6/15/2000 |
| 4533 HIGH GROVE RD | $210,000 | 6/15/2000 |
| 4899 HIGH GROVE RD | $320,000 | 4/28/2000 |
| 1953 CHATSWORTH WAY | $430,000 | 4/27/2000 |
| 4859 HIGH GROVE RD | $256,500 | 3/10/2000 |
| 4715 HIGH GROVE RD | $210,000 | 2/16/2000 |
| 1993 CHATSWORTH WAY | $215,000 | 12/20/1999 |
| 4778 LANCASHURE LN | $350,000 | 12/10/1999 |
| 4819 LANCASHURE LN | $334,000 | 12/10/1999 |
| 4936 HIGH GROVE RD | $253,000 | 10/15/1999 |
| 4823 HIGH GROVE RD | $175,000 | 10/4/1999 |
| 4545 HIGH GROVE RD | $234,000 | 6/18/1999 |
| 4771 LANCASHURE LN | $374,000 | 6/9/1999 |
| 4923 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $265,000 | 6/4/1999 |
| 4779 LANCASHURE LN | $345,000 | 5/24/1999 |
| 4911 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $275,000 | 5/17/1999 |
| 4766 HIGH GROVE RD | $312,500 | 3/26/1999 |
| 4914 HIGH GROVE RD | $354,900 | 12/29/1998 |
| $264,000 | 12/3/1998 | |
| 4787 HIGH GROVE RD | $265,000 | 9/10/1998 |
| 1984 CHATSWORTH WAY | $188,000 | 8/27/1998 |
| 1921 CHATSWORTH WAY | $314,000 | 7/31/1998 |
| 4751 HIGH GROVE RD | $254,500 | 7/31/1998 |
| 4980 GLEN CASTLE DR | $275,000 | 7/30/1998 |
| 4715 HIGH GROVE RD | $180,000 | 5/20/1998 |
| 4963 GLEN CASTLE DR | $270,000 | 5/4/1998 |
| 4946 GLEN CASTLE DR | $329,900 | 1/15/1998 |
| 4571 HIGH GROVE RD | $292,100 | 11/7/1997 |
| 4823 HIGH GROVE RD | $175,000 | 11/7/1997 |
| 4937 HIGH GROVE RD | $297,500 | 9/26/1997 |
| 4929 HIGH GROVE RD | $225,000 | 8/15/1997 |
| 4779 LANCASHURE LN | $369,400 | 8/4/1997 |
| 2018 CHATSWORTH WAY | $350,000 | 6/26/1997 |
| 4899 HIGH GROVE RD | $317,500 | 6/16/1997 |
| 4557 HIGH GROVE RD | $295,000 | 5/30/1997 |
| 1984 CHATSWORTH WAY | $170,000 | 5/19/1997 |
| 4979 GLEN CASTLE DR | $259,000 | 4/28/1997 |
| 1978 CHATSWORTH WAY | $107,000 | 4/14/1997 |
| 1912 CHATSWORTH WAY | $250,000 | 12/31/1996 |
| 4921 HIGH GROVE RD | $260,000 | 10/31/1996 |
| 4607 HIGH GROVE RD | $275,000 | 10/23/1996 |
| 4910 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $215,000 | 10/21/1996 |
| 4987 GLEN CASTLE DR | $323,000 | 7/24/1996 |
| 4818 LANCASHURE LN | $217,500 | 7/1/1996 |
| 4913 HIGH GROVE RD | $370,000 | 6/29/1996 |
| 4778 LANCASHURE LN | $325,000 | 6/26/1996 |
| 4786 HIGH GROVE RD | $225,000 | 4/19/1996 |
| 1913 CHATSWORTH WAY | $210,000 | 3/20/1996 |
| 4642 HIGH GROVE RD | $286,200 | 10/30/1995 |
| 4770 LANCASHURE LN | $335,000 | 10/26/1995 |
| 4991 GLEN CASTLE DR | $225,000 | 9/15/1995 |
| 1904 CHATSWORTH WAY | $297,000 | 8/2/1995 |
| 4963 GLEN CASTLE DR | $279,900 | 7/27/1995 |
| 4903 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $229,000 | 7/14/1995 |
| 4703 HIGH GROVE RD | $208,000 | 6/26/1995 |
| 4923 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $247,000 | 5/30/1995 |
| 4947 GLEN CASTLE DR | $350,000 | 5/9/1995 |
| 4799 HIGH GROVE RD | $240,500 | 4/7/1995 |
| 4883 HIGH GROVE RD | $320,000 | 3/10/1995 |
| 4924 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $250,000 | 12/12/1994 |
| 4942 GLEN CASTLE DR | $332,500 | 11/28/1994 |
| 4607 HIGH GROVE RD | $230,000 | 10/21/1994 |
| 4787 HIGH GROVE RD | $280,000 | 9/9/1994 |
| 4910 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $228,000 | 8/31/1994 |
| 4907 HIGH GROVE RD | $244,000 | 8/24/1994 |
| 4794 HIGH GROVE RD | $260,000 | 8/1/1994 |
| 4779 LANCASHURE LN | $290,000 | 6/2/1994 |
| 1913 CHATSWORTH WAY | $235,000 | 6/1/1994 |
| 4775 HIGH GROVE RD | $370,000 | 1/28/1994 |
| 4929 HIGH GROVE RD | $215,000 | 1/7/1994 |
| 1929 CHATSWORTH WAY | $48,700 | 12/30/1993 |
| 1929 CHATSWORTH WAY | $24,400 | 12/30/1993 |
| 1929 CHATSWORTH WAY | $24,400 | 12/30/1993 |
| 4935 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $372,000 | 12/8/1993 |
| 1953 CHATSWORTH WAY | $97,600 | 11/5/1993 |
| 4899 HIGH GROVE RD | $295,000 | 9/13/1993 |
| 4943 GLEN CASTLE DR | $249,900 | 9/1/1993 |
| 4810 LANCASHURE LN | $226,000 | 8/23/1993 |
| 4977 GLEN CASTLE DR | $278,000 | 7/15/1993 |
| 4774 HIGH GROVE RD | $275,000 | 7/13/1993 |
| 4962 GLEN CASTLE DR | $250,000 | 7/12/1993 |
| 4847 HIGH GROVE RD | $269,500 | 6/18/1993 |
| 4922 HIGH GROVE RD | $240,000 | 4/15/1993 |
| 4759 LANCASHURE LN | $250,000 | 3/16/1993 |
| 4884 SHELBOURNE DR | $252,500 | 12/30/1992 |
| 4727 HIGH GROVE RD | $192,000 | 11/23/1992 |
| $258,900 | 11/4/1992 | |
| 4902 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $192,500 | 11/3/1992 |
| 4571 HIGH GROVE RD | $277,000 | 10/26/1992 |
| 4942 GLEN CASTLE DR | $321,000 | 10/23/1992 |
| 4794 HIGH GROVE RD | $267,800 | 10/16/1992 |
| 4943 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $215,000 | 9/17/1992 |
| 2008 CHATSWORTH WAY | $235,000 | 9/10/1992 |
| 4935 ARDEN FOREST WAY | $118,300 | 8/24/1992 |
| 4655 HIGH GROVE RD | $285,000 | 8/18/1992 |
| 4679 HIGH GROVE RD | $450,000 | 8/18/1992 |
| 1977 CHATSWORTH WAY | $225,000 | 7/9/1992 |
| 4571 HIGH GROVE RD | $206,500 | 7/8/1992 |
| 4943 GLEN CASTLE DR | $205,000 | 7/1/1992 |
| 4979 GLEN CASTLE DR | $259,900 | 6/24/1992 |
| 1920 CHATSWORTH WAY | $270,000 | 6/22/1992 |
| 4787 HIGH GROVE RD | $234,000 | 1/15/1992 |
| 4883 HIGH GROVE RD | $265,000 | 10/16/1991 |
| 1992 CHATSWORTH WAY | $360,000 | 9/16/1991 |
| 4810 LANCASHURE LN | $218,000 | 9/16/1991 |
| 1992 CHATSWORTH WAY | $135,500 | 9/10/1991 |
| 2034 CHATSWORTHWAY | $309,000 | 9/4/1991 |
| 1985 CHATSWORTH WAY | $210,000 | 8/26/1991 |
| 1904 CHATSWORTH WAY | $335,000 | 7/2/1991 |
| 4929 HIGH GROVE RD | $205,000 | 6/12/1991 |
| 4955 GLEN CASTLE DR | $234,000 | 5/6/1991 |
| 1921 CHATSWORTH WAY | $295,000 | 3/15/1991 |
| 4823 HIGH GROVE RD | $145,000 | 2/15/1991 |
| 4947 GLEN CASTLE DR | $256,000 | 1/24/1991 |
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