 |
|
Every year at this time, the Attorneys’ Title Insurance Fund publishes its Real Estate Forecast. This year, the report does little to bring enthusiasm to a much beleaguered market, instead predicting Florida’s economy to lag the rest of the country.
The report has been published since 1975 by economist Hank Fishkind and uses deed data for more than 30 Florida counties, including Leon. It gives us a chance to see how Leon County projects versus the rest of the State. Unfortunately, Dr. Fishkind projects that most Florida housing markets will be down this year and will not see a recovery until 2011. But Fishkind has some positive thoughts for Leon County.
Florida Is In A Tough Recession
“This is the worst recession our area has seen since at least 1975-76,” Fishkind said. “As we look back on it, it will probably be the worst in post-World War II history.”
Florida lost more than 150,000 jobs last year — the worst job performance in the nation, according to Fishkind. People without jobs can’t pay their mortgages, which ignited the state’s crippling foreclosure problem and throttled housing starts and prices.
You can download the 84-page Fishkind Report with its charts, graphs and analysis of 30 counties analyzed in great detail.
Fishkind Got It Wrong In 2008
The following table shows the middle range of Fishkind’s 2008 Florida estimate. As you can see in the right hand column, he really missed the market in 2008. When comparing actual 2008 numbers to his Medium Scenario, his projections were 49.3% higher than actual market performance (off by 111,383 total units). It certainly leaves room to question the 2009 Annual Fishkind Forecast.
Fishkind Projects Leon County To Improve In 2009
Fishkind projects limited housing growth in 2009, and shows a growth in population and employment. Compared to the rest of Florida, this appears to be a glowing testimonial to a housing market rebound that will occur in Tallahassee. I’m just not so sure that his assumptions are correct or that the data that he used is the same as what we can get when we look at the recorded deeds in Tallahassee.
Just as I did last year, I will compare Fishkind’s Leon County report with the Leon County Tax Appraiser’s recorded filings. This will be published in The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter, so if you have not subscribed, please do so (in the form below).
 Subscribe in a reader |
 Subscribe by email |
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can Subscribe by Email. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. Â
Â
If you enjoyed this article, you'll love our Weekly Special (it's free).
Email Address:
This site runs on the Thesis WordPress Theme
If you are someone who does not understand a lot of PHP, HTML, or CSS, Thesis will give you a ton of functionality without having to alter any code. For the advanced, Thesis has incredible customization possibilities via extensive hooks and filters. And with so many design options, you can use the template over and over and never have it look like the same site.
If you are more familiar with how websites work, you can use the fantastic Thesis Users Guide and world-class support forums to make more professional customizations than you ever thought possible. The theme is not only highly customizable, but it allows me to build sites with a much more targeted focus on monetization than ever before. You can find out more about Thesis below:
{ 0 comments… add one now }
{ 1 trackback }