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We have been watching inventories continue to rise in the residential real estate market for a very long time, going back to 2005. The Tallahassee Real Estate Blog has been instructing readers that the first sign of change in the housing market should be noted when inventory levels begin to fall on a long-term trend. I can say, with cautious optimism, that we are starting to see our long-term trend move to falling inventories in the Tallahassee real estate market.
Tallahassee Housing Inventory Falls On Short Term Trend
The thirty day trend is a look at what we have been seeing, on average, during the past thirty days. On average, the Tallahassee real estate market has seen more than four homes per day (NET) leave the market over the past thirty days. That means the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee is roughly 130 fewer homes today than it was at this time last month.
Long Term Trend Positive For Tallahassee Home Inventory
Just as the thirty day trend is positive, the 180 day trend is also showing a reduction of Tallahassee homes for sale. The 180 day trend is showing 2.5 fewer homes for sale in Tallahassee each day, meaning that over the past 6 months, the inventory of homes has fallen by 450 homes!
Home Selling Success Rates In Tallahassee Starting To Fall
Part of the reduction in home inventories is due to an increase in home selling success rates. The following graph measures the trend of homes sold versus homes listed for sale each day. What we are looking for is the direction of the trend line, as opposed to the absolute value at any given point.
Using the graph above, we can see the all the trends were near the upper thirties (34% – 40%) when our measurement began in mid-June of this year. Sales success rates rose up around the 45% range (meaning 45% of the homes listed were selling) by the end of August, but we are now seeing that number begin to decline.
I suspect when we observe this graph near the end of February, the trends will be in the low thirties again. Whether or not this fall is enough to turn around the inventory reduction remains to be seen. Stay tuned to the Tallahassee real estate blog for updates, or you can check our regularly updated “Market Bulletin” for charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.
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It is great news that they are starting to follow this positive trend – hopefully the rest of the country follows suit soon!
This is a great analysis. Many investors wait to the absolute bottom to start to buy assets but they are wrong. The market has fallen enough to start to buy properties and especially with the signs that you show in your graphs that offer/demand is starting to change direction.
It is important to see yourself in the eyes of your buyer. Be sensitive enough to the their needs and wants; ask yourself, “If I were the buyer, what kind of house would I choose?”
Also, it is common knowledge that buyers of O real estate always want the cheapest home that they can afford. Have all the necessary improvement in your houses and maximize the value and functionality of the house. Take note, do not over-improve the house, because it would be priced higher and it would be more difficult to sell..
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