The Mother Of All Real Estate Reports v. II

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 11:46am.

In what can only be described as the "Mother of all Real Estate Reports," see an in-depth review of the current Tallahassee housing market.

I learned a long time ago that a picture is worth 1,000 words, so today's "Mother of All Real Estate Reports v. II" will be mostly graphical in nature. For detailed analysis of individual graphs, you are welcome to visit the Tallahassee Housing Report for an in-depth and current study of the Tallahassee real estate market.

Yesterday's real estate report on Pending Home Sales in Tallahassee showed that the market is in a significant decline since the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, but we have so many more graphs of the market that can show us how things are compared to how they have been.

Residential Sales Trends In Tallahassee

This first real estate graph shows that the average home price has dropped, but more importantly, the number of homes selling each month is lower than at any time going back to 1991!

Residential Sales Trends In Tallahassee

Average Prices For Residential Properties In Tallahassee

When we look at the average price report for Tallahassee homes, we see that the biggest change is in what home builders are doing. Look how the blue line has dropped to adapt to what home buyers are buying.

Average Prices For Real Estate In Tallahassee

Single Family Home Prices

When we look at single family detached homes as an isolated group, we can see that the average price has gone from $222K to $187K. Some people in real estate would tell you this is THE measurement of depreciation, but is it?

Single Family Detached Home Prices In Tallahassee

Average Real Estate Prices In Tallahassee

The next real estate graph shows that for the most part, average real estate prices are dropping. But notice how the average condo/townhome price is rising! Could this have something to do with the downtown condo market in Tallahassee?

Average Real Estate Prices In Tallahassee

Tallahassee Lot And Land Sales Continue Decline

Lot and land sales have been hurting since the demand for new homes is so low. With our glut of homes not easing, the need for residential lots is many years off. I don't expect the slide of land prices to end anytime soon.

Lot and Land Sales In Tallahassee

Year Over Year Home Sales Report

After recent gains in the year over year home sales report, July posted a "no big surprises here" decline of 19%. We expected to see a decline with the end of the Homebuyer Tax Credit, which had helped create a run of 6 of the past 7 months as year over year gains.

Tallahassee Year Over Year Home Sales Report

Long Term Home Sales Trends

For those of you pure "chartists" out there, the following real estate graph shows long term home sales trends in Tallahassee. The short term trend (one year) is showing growth, but the five and ten year trends are in declines.

Long Term Home Sales Trends In Tallahassee

New Home Sales Versus Existing Home Sales

One graph that really shows the plight of home builders right now is the Average Monthly Home Sales Activity Report. The blue section of the real estate graph below represents new home sales, while the red measures the trend of existing home sales. As a ratio, it is the worst that new home builders have experienced during my 20 years in the business.

Average Monthly Home Sales Activity In Tallahassee

The Mother Of All Real Estate Reports

Time for some reader feedback. If you like this style of blog post (like to see one or two each month), let me know in the comments section below. If I don't get any/many comments, I'll figure not many people made it this far and it is not their cup of tea!

Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

5 Responses to "The Mother Of All Real Estate Reports v. II"

Mark West wrote: This was an excellent post. Again, I am so glad this information was available in light of all the erronious material and popular opinion said to do otherwise. It was an aggrevation that realtors wanted me to invest rather than provide me sound information. We almost made what I would have considered my biggest mistake to date, given our personal situation.

I really appreciate the big picture perspective your analysis provides. For example, I like how your presentations include data from the 1990's. 1) You know where you're going if yoyu know where you've been. 2) The prior data is what it is. . .People forget that; they spculate the future - precisely how we arrived in this mess.

I like seeing the tax credit impact/expiration

Posted on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 1:15pm.

Wildcat wrote: I have to say that this was a good post to read. I'm glad that you post this on the blog...

Posted on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 2:55pm.

Joe Manausa, MBA wrote: Thanks Mark. I'm hoping to be a little smarter the second time around as well :).

Posted on Tuesday, August 10th, 2010 at 4:02pm.

george fergusson wrote: DEAR JOE,
IT IS ENCOURAGING TO SEE SOME BUILDING ACTIVITY IN PLACES LIKE SOUTHWOOD, BUT THAT'S THE RESULT OF THE HOME BUYER TAX CREDIT. NOW WHAT? THE QUESTION IS, HOW BAD WILL IT GET BEFORE IT STARTS GETTING BETTER?

Posted on Sunday, August 15th, 2010 at 6:35pm.

Joe Manausa, MBA wrote: Hey George, do you really think the construction in Southwood is a result of the tax credit, or because the new land basis makes it possible to bring new construction in cheaper than the resales? What do you think this is doing to the <a href="http://www.manausa.com/more-real-estate-shadow-inventory-ii/" rel="nofollow">Shadow Inventory in Southwood</a>?

Posted on Sunday, August 15th, 2010 at 9:54pm.

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