Beware Of False Prophets In Real Estate

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, October 27th, 2009 at 11:03am.

Evil Wizard Forecasts Strong Tallahassee Real Estate MarketAnybody who knows me will tell you that I am an Army Football fan. I played for Army in the 1980s and I attend their annual football team reunion up at the academy each year.

Recently, I had a conversation with a friend who is also a fan, but is (I believe) a little biased when reporting how well a team with a 3-5 record is really doing.

Army played Rutgers this past Thursday night, but I did not watch the game. The next morning I read that we had lost the game, so I called my friend to see how the team had performed.

Our Conversation

Me: So did you watch the game?

Him: Yes! Man we had it right in our hands.

Me: Really?

Him: Yeah, we really looked strong. We took the opening drive and shoved it right down their throat. We ran 11 plays and scored a touchdown. We were dominating.

Me: Oh? What happened after that.

Him: Well, Rutgers ran off 17 straight points and then scored the final 10 points of the game to beat us 27-10.

Now I wouldn't call his recollection of the game a true, un-biased account. I'm not so sure that Army "had it right in their hands." I've learned over time that if I really want to know how well (or how not-so-well) the Army Team has done, I need to read a few different accounts from the game. Everybody has their own viewpoint, and all come will a bias.

Beware Of False Prophets In Real Estate

So why do I begin a real estate blog with a story about Army Football? Because home sales in Tallahassee are a lot like the Army Football Team. There is a lot of talk and great signs of promise, but so far the record indicates that a recovery has not been made!

Recently, a local publication took a report from the Florida Association of REALTORS® and wrote an article that I think painted a picture that is not truly accurate. Much like my friend reporting on Army Football, the writer spouted a few positive (facts) and then let the reader conclude that the Tallahassee housing market is on the upswing.

Unfortunately, REALTORS® typically only report about 1/2 to 1/3 of all the home sales in a market. I like to know what the REALTOR® reports are saying, but to get a true picture of the Tallahassee real estate market (or any real estate market for that matter), one has to dig deeper.

The tax records are filled with home sales that never made it into the Tallahassee MLS, and thus will never be known by the Florida Association of REALTORS®. This graph below represents the true year-over-year home sales record for Tallahassee.

Year over Year Home Sales Graph In Tallahassee

This real estate graph demonstrates that the Tallahassee housing market has experienced 39 consecutive months of year-over-year declines in home sales. September of 2009 recorded a drop of 6.3% in homes sold versus September 2008.

Tallahassee Real Estate Resources

If you want accurate real estate reporting for Tallahassee, there are three great resources that you can use for free.

  1. The Tallahassee Real Estate Blog - This is a daily web log that features articles and reports on real estate in Tallahassee, Florida. Here is an article explaining how you can have this delivered to your email inbox every time a new article is published. (Click here for explanation on how to subscribe to a real estate blog).
  2. The Tallahassee Real Estate Market Report - This site features supply and demand trends in the Tallahassee housing market, and is updated once or twice per week. The graphs and analysis give a good indication of where the housing market in Tallahassee is heading.
  3. The Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter-Every three weeks, we send the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter out to our subscribers. Currently, that list is just under 1,000 people and growing. The newsletter addresses analytics in the Tallahassee housing market and provides forecasting and other important facts about what and why the housing market is performing as it is. You can click this link to subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter.

If you subscribe to the first (the blog) and the third (the newsletter), and visit the second  (the market report) on a weekly basis, you will be more informed about the trends in the Tallahassee real estate market than any writer, in any publication in the Tallahassee area.

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As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates on real estate in Tallahassee Florida.

Joe Manausa is a real estate blogger, a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.

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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

2 Responses to "Beware Of False Prophets In Real Estate"

John A. Dalkowski III, CRE, MAI wrote: GO NAVY--BEAT ARMY

JD
USNA '71

Posted on Wednesday, December 16th, 2009 at 9:32pm.

Joe Manausa, MBA wrote: Hey John....you all did. BWTNY!

Posted on Wednesday, December 16th, 2009 at 9:45pm.

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