Tallahassee Real Estate - The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Posted by Joe Manausa on Thursday, November 13th, 2008 at 10:07am.

Tallahassee Housing Trends GraphFor those of us who really monitor what is going on in the Tallahassee real estate market, today is a big day. Once a month, I receive the data on the previous month, and today is that day for October 2008. I am putting together the monthly charts, graphs and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market that will show us what happened in October.

The purpose of today's real estate blog is to give the reader a quick snapshot of what occured in the Tallahassee area real estate market, and one graph gives a great view of the snapshot and necessitates a title of the Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

Tallahassee Real Estate Market Trends

As we can see from the Tallahassee real estate graph below, the market has continued upon its recent trend. As a reminder, this information comes from the Tallahassee Board of Realtors Multiple Listing Service (MLS) and features housing data from Leon County, Gadsden County, Wakulla County, Jefferson County, Franklin County, and some occasional "other county" data.

Tallahassee Real Estate - The Good

When looking at the graph of the Tallahassee Area real estate market trends, the good news that we see is inventory levels are dropping. The "red" line in the chart shows the home inventory around Tallahassee has dropped to 4,419 homes. As we have stated in the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog since "Day 1," the turnaround in the Tallahassee real estate market cannot begin until long after we see inventory levels start to drop. This good news continues to tell us that we have most likely taken the first step towards the market turn.

Tallahassee Real Estate - The Bad

The bad news in the area surrounding Tallahassee is that the number of home sales in Tallahassee and its surrounding counties continues to decline. At the height of the market, the trend was over 5,700 homes per year selling in the markets including and surrounding Leon County, but as the green line in the graph above shows, we are now down to 3,000 homes per year average.

Tallahassee Real Estate - The Ugly

While the "bad news" is sales are still dropping, the purple line on the chart is truly "ugly." When we measure inventory in terms of consumption (months of supply), we see a staggering trend. The months of supply of homes in Tallahassee and its surrounding counties is nearly 19 months! Most experts consider a balanced housing market to rest between 5 and 7 months of supply, with 5 months and below a Sellers' market and 7 months and above a Buyers' market.

Putting a little perspective on this:
  • October 2008 - 18.9 Months of Supply (up 41% over 2007)
  • October 2007 - 13.4 Months of Supply (up 46% over 2006)
  • October 2006 - 9.2 Months of Supply (up 74% over 2005)
  • October 2005 - 5.3 Months of Supply (up 4% over 2004)
  • October 2004 - 5.1 Months of Supply (up 4% over 2003)
  • October 2003 - 4.9 Months of Supply

We can see that a big move occurred in 2006. We saw the market move quickly from a Seller's market to a Buyers' market, yet sales and pricing in 2006 continued on without market awareness. It was now a Buyers' market (based upon inventory levels), yet sales prices continued to move higher. If we only then had a place to go for Tallahassee Real Estate News and Market Reports .....

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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

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