Often hear that the Tallahassee real estate market is cyclical, but sometimes a picture will show us much more than mere words can communicate. I decided to pull residential sales in the Tallahassee real estate market from 1991 to the present (December 2007) in order to see what long-term trend could be found. The following graph shows unit sales and average prices of residential properties (single family homes, town houses, & condominiums), reported quarterly. This chart clearly shows an uptrend in both price of properties as well as the number of units selling in the Tallahassee real estate market. The light-blue shaded area represents the average price while the dark blue line is the linear trend of average price over the past 17 years. Similarly, the red shaded area represents the number of units sold each quarter and the red line represents the unit sales trend. We can see the affect of seasonality each year in the red shaded area, as there are peaks and valleys corresponding to the different times of years. But if you look closely at the red shaded area, you can also see a rough-ten year cycle. The last up-cycle occurred in 2004-2005, but we can see a similar up-cycle occurring in 1994-1995. I suspect this will be more clear to see in 2015. I hope to see you here. The up-cycle in 2004-2005 was far greater than a normal cyclical move, having more than our local economy bearing on the situation. Because of this, we should expect a great than normal down-cycle, as we are starting to see with the last-two reported quarters. The fourth quarter of 2007 reported the fewest number of sales out of all the quarters in the entire period. Don't be surprised to see 2008 follow this pattern, with unit sales not truly rebounding until 2009.
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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.