Searching For Luxury Lots In Tallahassee

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, July 14th, 2009 at 11:41am.

One of the harder real estate sales in Tallahassee to track is lots (homesites). Often times, homesites are sold in bulk, so there is only 1 resulting sale in the tax records, but it might represent tens or even hundreds of Tallahassee home lot sales.

We can use the Tallahassee MLS, but the REALTOR® MLS does not contain the majority of lot sales, so the data is only a glimpse of what is really going on in the Tallahassee lot sales market. So I think the best way to do this is to use a combination of data sources as well as analyze the future potential use of the homesites themselves.

Yesterday, we had a comment from a reader (Buddy) who wrote:

How about a review of residential building lot supplies in the Tallahassee market? As you may know, I have a number of “luxury lots” to sell and MLS shows only a few sales in 2008 of product costing above $150,000 and almost none in 2009. Are lower price lots selling at all? Is there a “tipping point” in lot sale prices? Thanks and keep up the wonderful work you are doing. Buddy

Buddy raises several important questions that I think we can put a good estimate to with the right analysis.

Tallahassee Lot Sales Recorded In Leon County

We have been tracking recorded lot sales in Leon County, Florida since the beginning of 1991. For quite some time, average lot prices in Tallahassee did not move around very much, but the glut of lots that was the result of the Comprehensive Land Use Plan in the 1980's was consumed by 2000, and land prices took off.

Lot Sales In Tallahassee

This real estate graph shows the one-year trend in both unit sales as well as average price, and we now see that the average price of a residential building lot in Tallahassee is still above $70K. Unit sales have plummeted with the rest of the real estate market, but lot sales have been showing an apparent bottom for the last six months or so.

This data comes from the Leon County Tax Appraisers data on recorded sales, so it is the most accurate and most complete data set that we can use. But it does not show us anything about current supply, so for that we must use what is available from the Tallahassee MLS.

Tallahassee Lots Supply And Demand In The MLS

This next chart comes from information pulled from the Tallahassee Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service (Tallahassee MLS). All active residential lot listings were pulled, as well as all lot sales over the past twelve months. The amount of supply, based upon current demand, is significant.
Low High Listed Sold Months Supply
$0 $40,000 102 29 42
$40,000 $80,000 126 32 47
$80,000 $120,000 146 17 103
$120,000 $160,000 118 10 142
$160,000 $200,000 77 9 103
$200,000 $240,000 24 4 72
$240,000 $280,000 24 1 288
$280,000 $320,000 21 2 126
$320,000 $360,000 11 2 66
$360,000 $400,000 64 4 192
Total   713 110 78

If we could rely on the data from the Tallahassee MLS, we would conclude that there is over 6 years of supply of lots in the Tallahassee real estate market. For lots with a value greater than $160K, but less than $400K, there is just over 10 years supply. Fortunately for Buddy, we do not necessarily believe this to be accurate.

Luxury Home Site Demand In Tallahassee

So how do we determine the real demand for luxury home sites in Tallahassee? The only correlated supply and demand data is in the Tallahassee MLS, but we are confident that this data is insufficient to draw any real market conclusions. The information in the tax records shows historic sales, but there is no supply-side data with which this data can be compared. But what if we took another approach ...

I suspect that if we can look at the current supply and demand relationships for luxury homes, we can develop an idea for the future demand of these homes, and thus the future demand for the luxury lots that lie beneath them. If you downloaded the updated Tallahassee Home Inventory Report, then you would be able to see that demand will most likely be less than 10 years.

Leon County Home Inventory StatisticsWhat the real estate chart information above shows is a two to four year supply of homes in the price ranges that these luxury home sites would produce. If you are a regular reader of the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog, then you will know that our current rate of demand is less than 1/2 of what is considered normal. This means that as demand returns, these supply amounts will be halved rapidly. We still have several years worth of  homes in the shadow inventory that is waiting in the wings as well, but I suspect demand for home sites at all price ranges will return in 4 to 8 years.

Current Tallahassee Residential Lot Demand Is Non-Existent

To answer Buddy's final question, is there a "tipping point," I would have to say no. Our supply of homes it too high all the way across the board, so I do not believe that lots at any price are going to sell until we see the reduction of the current home inventories, in all price ranges. The key to lot owners is to hold on if you can, because the cost to develop is only rising. Even as the state of the economy worsens, it is not easier nor cheaper to bring a residential home site to the market.

Good Time To Buy A Luxury Lot In Tallahassee?

If you are thinking of building the luxury home in 5 to 10 years, now might be a smart time to go out and look for the perfect luxury home site. They are plentiful and you might be able to make a very savvy investment, plus secure the "perfect" place for your future home. With the state of the current housing market, I suspect there are developers like Buddy who would consider a creative sales solution that would get you in a luxury lot for very little interest or low money down.

A lot of the initial home owners in Golden Eagle Plantation had been land speculators who bought their lots during a tough market. When they went to build on them five to ten years later, these same lots were selling for as much as 500% more than they had payed. The key is to find a place where you would love to live and see if you can get it at a great price in today's market.

Recent Lot Sales In The Tallahassee MLS

Area Address Price
SE-03 1974 Midyette $2,070,000
NE-01 XXX Vason Lane $660,000
SE-03 0 WOODVILLE HIGHWAY $405,000
NE-01 Lot 21 ROSEHILL DR W $380,000
NE-01 Lot B16 Lake Pisgah Drive $350,000
NE-01 Lot 17B Lake Pisgah Drive $325,000
NW-02 1806 Belle Vue Way $315,000
NE-01 Lot B16 Lake Pisgah Drive $300,000
NE-01 9015 Magnolia Hill Dr $275,000
NE-01 1333 Rachel $230,000
NE-01 9342 Lilly Baker Lane $230,000
SE-03 3614 Mossy Creek Lane $229,900
NE-01 R3 Quail Call Drive $225,000
NE-01 G1 Pine Fair Way $185,000
NE-01 0 ELLICOTT $185,000
NW-02 XXX Nelly Lane $183,350
NE-01 0 Thomasville Road $175,000
NE-01 0 Thomasville Road $175,000
NE-01 14036 Godbold Road $175,000
SE-03 3591 Mossy Creek $170,850
NE-01 S5 Broomsage Place $165,000
NE-01 XXXX Anhinga Farms off of Centerville Road $160,000
SE-03 Lot 3 Grove Park $158,000
NE-01 S4 Broomsage Place $155,000
SE-03 00 Natural Bridge Road $150,000
NE-01 5724 Farnsworth Dr $135,000
NE-01 xxxx Whitetail Pass $135,000
NE-01 Lot 17 Rael Court $131,000
SE-03 3614 Mossy Creek Lane $130,000
NE-01 0 Amanda Mae Court $129,200
NE-01 3745 SWALLOWTAIL $125,000
NE-01 0000 Hannon Hill Drive $120,000
NE-01 7247 Sleepy Hollow Circle $115,000
NE-01 1005 Waverly Road $111,000
NE-01 xxxx terrace Street $110,000
NW-02 1774 San Damian Rd $110,000
SE-03 xx Hidden Horse Way $110,000
NE-01 4-A Faraway Farms Rd $110,000
SE-03 Lot 1B Ranch Club Rd $107,000
NE-01 S-12 DORAL DRIVE $100,000
SE-03 10C E Sunny Mariana Court $100,000
SE-03 4102 Faulkner Lane $99,500
SE-03 000 Register Farm Road $98,500
SE-03 4141 FAULKNER $92,500
NW-02 995 River View Trail $90,000
SE-03 4101 Faulkner Lane $87,500
NE-01 xxxx Hickory Woods Trail $85,000
NE-01 xxxx Hickory Woods Trail $85,000
NE-01 0000 S Hill N Dale Drive $82,000
NE-01 2212 SHIRLEY ANN CT $77,000
NE-01 2518 Manaussas $75,000
NE-01 2514 Manaussas $75,000
NE-01 2510 Manaussas $75,000
SW-04 xxx Blue Lake Run $75,000
NE-01 Lot 6 Buck Lake RD $75,000
NE-01 Lot 3 Terrace Street $75,000
NE-01 Lot 7A Jackson Gap Road $69,000
NE-01 2224 SHIRLEY ANN CT $66,000
NE-01 2220 SHIRLEY ANN CT $66,000
NE-01 2216 SHIRLEY ANN CT $66,000
NE-01 8888 Lee Reeves Road $65,000
NW-02 15268 High Hills Circle $65,000
NE-01 0000 Lake Charles Drive $65,000
SW-04 Lot 1,2,3 S Martin Luther King Boulevard $64,000
NW-02 xxxx Old Bainbridge Road $60,000
NE-01 3484 Rosemont Ridge $55,000
NE-01 1143 Old Bumpy Road $53,500
NE-01 0000 Plowshare Road $52,000
NE-01 3492 Rosemont Ridge $50,000
NE-01 3488 Rosemont Ridge $50,000
SE-03 1904 Indianhead Drive East $48,000
SE-03 0 TRAILWOOD CT $48,000
NE-01 3412 Cedarwood Trail $47,500
NE-01 xxxx Alan-A-Dale Trail $46,000
NW-02 xxxx Rivers Landing Court $46,000
NW-02 XXX Harriet Drive $45,000
NE-01 3421 HAWKS HILL Trail $45,000
SE-03 xxx Brookside Blvd. $44,000
NW-02 xxxx Sandy Court $43,000
NW-02 xxxx Sagebrook Drive $42,500
NW-02 xxxx Silent Creek Lane $41,000
SW-04 XXX James Street $35,000
SW-04 1387 McCullough Drive $35,000
NW-02 3602 Swatts Road $32,500
SE-03 Lot 10E Montejo Drie $32,000
SW-04 0000 Melvin Street $31,500
SW-04 4267 Ridge Haven Rd. $30,000
SW-04 4259 Ridge Haven Rd $30,000
SE-03 xxx HIDDEN CREEK LN $29,900
SW-04 XXX Holton Street $24,500
NW-02 1210 Ford Street $23,000
SE-03 10382 Roger Hamlin Road $23,000
SE-03 2223 Natural Wells Road $22,900
SW-04 2010 Saxon Street $22,000
SW-04 3012 S Monroe Street $20,900
SW-04 3006 S Monroe Street $20,900
NW-02 1308 Silver Saddle Dr $20,000
NW-02 0 LATE SUNSET $17,500
NW-02 xxx N MERIDIAN RD $15,000
NW-02 0 China Doll Drive $15,000
SE-03 9133 Bearington Drive $14,000
NW-02 xxx China Doll Dr $10,000
NW-02 xxx China Doll Dr $10,000
NW-02 xxx China Doll Dr $10,000
NW-02 xxx China Doll Drive $10,000
NW-02 1435 Nashville $8,000
NW-02 1484 Knoxville Ln. $8,000
NE-01 XX Thomasville Road $5,000
NE-01 X Thomasville Road $5,000
NW-02 XXX Bright Drive $1,823

subscribe-to-the-exclusive-tallahassee-real-estate-newsletter

Subscribe in a reader Subscribe by email

As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.

Keep checking out the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog every day for updates on real estate in Tallahassee Florida.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to my blog through a full RSS feed, or you can Subscribe by Email. You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market.
Joe Manausa is a real estate blogger, a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
NewsletterArchives MarketReportBlog

 View Joe Manausa's profile on LinkedIn

Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

Leave a Comment