81% Of Homes On The Market Fail To Sell
When we measure the number of homes that failed to sell over the past year and divide that into the number of new home listings, we get a ratio of 81%. That is the highest that we have ever measured the "failure rate" for home sales in Tallahassee. This number does not specifically measure the failure rate, but it is a relative measurement that shows it is getting tougher, not easier, to sell a home in Tallahassee.
Home Buyer Activity Still Cooling
Perhaps the most important factor in rejuvenating this tired real estate market is daily buyer activity. We are anxiously looking forward to the day when this trend turns upward.
Long Term Home Sales Success Trend Sliding
The success rate for home sales in Tallahassee is measured as the number of homes that sold in a period of time, versus the number of homes listed during that same time period. The real estate graph below measures the success rate of home sales in Tallahassee over several time periods. We can see the effect of seasonality on the shorter terms, but the long term trend still is holding at about 35%. One could argue that roughly 1 in 3 homes put on the market over the past year actually sold.
Are you wondering why the success rate and the failure rate, when added together, are greater than 100%? This is simply because fewer homes are coming on the market than are going off the market, thus the total departures are greater than the total of the new listings.
Short Term Home Inventory Trend Still Good
Home inventory levels continue to fall. This is a good thing. The Tallahassee housing market still has over 14 months of supply, so reducing the number of homes on the market will help hold values. This graph shows that the 30 day trend (short term) is still showing fewer and fewer homes on the market in Tallahassee.
Home Inventory Levels Continue To FallAll of the home inventory change trends in Tallahassee are good. We are seeing everything from short-term trends all the way up to the 1 year trend showing reduced inventory. Currently, the one year trend for home inventories is at a drop of 3 homes per day!
1,096 Fewer Homes On The Market Than Last Year
This is the best news coming out of the Tallahassee real estate market. There are 1,096 fewer homes on the market today versus this day last year! We need to continue to see this number drop until we are able to achieve six months of inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee.
One Year Trend In Tallahassee Housing Shows Lower Activity Levels
The following graph is perhaps the best singular view of the Tallahassee housing market that we provide. It shows daily new listings are still dropping, daily new failures are still flat, daily new sales and daily new pendings (new contracts) continue to decline.
You can check the status of these great Tallahassee real estate barometers any time at The Market Bulletin. We update our charts and graphs there several times per week. Additionally, you can subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Newsletter (click graphic below) to receive updates emailed to your inbox on a monthly basis.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.