Find Out What Is Happening In Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom Manor (Tallahassee)

Posted by Joe Manausa on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 at 10:04am.

Every so often, I like to take a look at how some of our more populous neighborhoods in Tallahassee are doing in the current housing market. On the northeast side of Tallahassee, two great neighborhoods, Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom Manor, represent quite a few homes and often a review of these two subdivisions gives one an snapshot of what is happening in the entire Tallahassee real estate market.

Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom Manor Unit Home Sales

The number of home sales in Ox Bottom (31) was the same as the number of home sales in Summerbrooke (31) over the past twelve months. The graph below shows that during that period of time, however, Summerbrooke was picking up steam while Ox Bottom Manor was cooling off.

Home Sales In Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom in Tallahassee

Average Home Prices Dropping In Ox Bottom Manor and Summerbrooke

On way to get a feel for how relative pricing is doing is to take a comparison of sales price per square foot over time. While this is not a super-accurate way to determine the value of an individual home, it certainly is adequate for reviewing home price trends in an area over time. From the graph below, we see that Ox Bottom Manor prices have dropped 10% over the past twelve months, while Summerbrooke prices have dropped over 6%.

Price Trends In Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom Manor in Tallahassee The number seen in Ox Bottom Manor and Summerbrooke are similar to what we are seeing in the rest of the Tallahassee real estate market. As we see inventories drop back to normal levels, prices should start to stabilize and then begin to rise again.

Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom Manor Home Sales (Sep 2007 - Aug 2008)

The following list of home sales was used to create the charts, graphs, and analysis of the Ox Bottom Manor and Summerbrooke neighborhoods. 4 sales were omitted from this analysis because they were not "arms length" sales, meaning most were sold from one family member to another at a price not representative of market value.

Address Sales Price Size (Sqft) Record Date Subdivision/Location
6018 QUAIL RIDGE DR $340,000 2,442 8/12/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
363 MILESTONE DR $310,000 2,361 8/5/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
7133 WOODED GORGE RD $440,000 3,622 8/5/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
1108 GREENSWARD DR $452,500 3,203 8/4/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
187 MEADOW RIDGE DR $345,000 2,433 7/30/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
200 SUGAR PLUM DR $275,000 2,131 7/17/2008 OX BOTTOM GARDENS
1209 E CONSERVANCY DR $315,000 2,318 7/16/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
6012 OX BOTTOM MANOR DR $400,000 2,760 7/8/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
512 SUMMERBROOKE DR $450,000 2,530 7/7/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
1224 GREENSWARD DR $540,000 3,386 7/2/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
6421 MALLARD TRACE DR $387,500 2,531 7/2/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
8124 BLENHEIM LN $334,000 2,532 7/2/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
1435 E CONSERVANCY DR $440,000 2,961 7/1/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
347 THORNBERG DR $364,900 2,305 6/26/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
1378 E CONSERVANCY DR $415,000 2,661 6/20/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
1060 SUMMERBROOKE DR $460,000 3,004 6/16/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
417 MEADOW RIDGE DR $449,000 3,202 6/16/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
8136 VIBURNUM CT $380,000 2,768 6/11/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
352 MEADOW RIDGE DR $340,000 2,684 6/10/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
341 MEADOW RIDGE DR $400,000 2,449 5/30/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
6369 MALLARD TRACE DR $380,000 2,691 5/28/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
1400 E CONSERVANCY DR $380,000 2,573 5/16/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
6000 BOYNTON HOMESTEAD $500,000 4,255 5/16/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
1304 E CONSERVANCY DR $435,000 2,813 5/8/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
6359 BELGRAND DR $302,500 2,008 5/6/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
1112 LOCHKNOLL CT $630,000 3,717 4/30/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
8015 EVENING STAR LN $437,400 3,072 4/17/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
6330 BELGRAND DR $490,000 2,953 4/1/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
874 HILL ROOST RD $489,900 3,158 3/24/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
883 HILL ROOST RD $319,300 2,178 3/24/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
1391 CONSERVANCY DR $365,000 2,437 3/6/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
6309 PICKNEY HILL RD $407,500 2,692 2/7/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
7083 SPICEWOOD LN $315,000 2,128 2/1/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
6018 QUAIL RIDGE DR $323,900 2,442 1/28/2008 OX BOTTOM MANOR
7540 PRESERVATION RD $465,000 2,728 1/24/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
1113 LOCHKNOLL CT $800,000 4,037 1/14/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
7116 WOODED GORGE RD $390,000 2,360 1/10/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
7695 WILLOW BASTIC CT $365,000 2,501 1/10/2008 SUMMERBROOKE
192 SUGAR PLUM DR $240,000 1,782 1/3/2008 OX BOTTOM GARDENS
7684 PRESERVATION RD $373,000 2,543 12/28/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
7993 PRESERVATION RD $385,000 2,570 12/28/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
6000 BOYNTON HOMESTEAD $475,000 4,255 12/19/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
448 TALL STAND CT $340,000 2,294 12/5/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
940 SUMMERBROOKE DR $365,000 2,543 11/21/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
6232 WHITTONDALE DR $354,900 2,346 11/16/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
7333 OX BOW CIR $462,500 3,035 11/16/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
130 THISTLEWOOD CT $365,000 2,280 11/9/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
7501 REFUGE RD $505,000 2,847 11/8/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
6351 SINKOLA DR $310,000 1,944 11/5/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
1328 CONSERVANCY DR $450,000 2,859 11/2/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
7727 PRESERVATION RD $470,000 2,578 11/2/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
135 THISTLEWOOD CT $402,000 2,483 10/25/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
401 MEADOW RIDGE DR $453,000 2,803 10/19/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
8071 LONGMEADOW DR $355,000 2,694 10/16/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
1112 GREENSWARD DR $330,000 2,338 10/11/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
6318 COACH HOUSE CT $390,000 2,268 10/10/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
6362 SAN MARTIN CT $445,000 2,738 10/2/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
6680 SPICEWOOD LN $435,000 2,837 9/25/2007 SUMMERBROOKE
6359 BELGRAND DR $295,000 2,008 9/20/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
143 COTILLION CIR $360,000 2,213 9/19/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
182 COTILLION CIR $295,900 2,068 9/18/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
310 THORNBERG DR $322,500 1,975 9/6/2007 OX BOTTOM MANOR
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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

6 Responses to "Find Out What Is Happening In Summerbrooke and Ox Bottom Manor (Tallahassee)"

Greg wrote: I'm so incredibly sick of all this housing cheerleading from the same sources (i.e., real estate brokers) that proclaimed in 2006 that housing is a great buy. According to you, it's always a great buy. As recently as 6 months ago, you argued that a real estate investment was a "no brainer." Inventories are down because sellers have pulled their homes off the market in hopes that "next season will be different." Nothing is selling now. Nothing will sell until sellers finally realize what's going on around them. It would help the process if real estate professionals took off the rose-colored glasses. The housing meltdown is a slow-motion train wreck because of this totally unsupported optimism. Those without a dog in the fight have predicted a 40 percent peak-to-trough reduction in prices. We're not even close to the end.

Posted on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 at 3:57pm.

Joe Manausa wrote: Hey Greg, thanks for the feedback.

I'm a bit confused when you write "I’m so incredibly sick of all this housing cheerleading from the same sources (i.e., real estate brokers) that proclaimed in 2006 that housing is a great buy."

I just posted a story about prices dropping 10% (is this the "cheerleading to which you refer?"

If you follow this blog, then you will know that I have been tracking inventory levels very closely, and I continually say the same thing.... prices will continue to fall until inventories stabilize.

I'm not so sure that I agree with your assessment that "Inventories are down because sellers have pulled their homes off the market in hopes that “next season will be different.” I think you have no basis in this statement, though I do believe that there is some truth to it (all markets have unrealistic sellers, the totally unrealistic ones are starting to leave the market).

Finally, I stand by what I wrote 6 months ago and would rewrite it today. If you are a family who will live in Tallahassee for quite some time, today's interest rates plus finding a very-well priced home = no brainer. Waiting for the very bottom will most likely create a situation that results in a lower price for the real estate, but a higher price for the loan....resulting in a higher monthly payment.
Finally, you state "Those without a dog in the fight have predicted a 40 percent peak-to-trough reduction in prices. We’re not even close to the end." It's my experience that the most vocal opinions are always from people who have "no dog in the fight." They never will have a dog in the fight, but they will always air their opinions from their hidden, risk-free position.

I have a dog in this fight.

Posted on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 at 8:23pm.

Greg wrote: (1) No offense, but I give a heck of a lot more weight to the opinions of a Meredith Whitney, who is disinterested and has been ahead of the housing curve for a long time, over someone like you, who is invested in the issue and has continually pushed housing as a good investment. Whitney recently said that peak to trough “will be far worse than 33%.”

(2) I wonder how your clients who bought homes in 2006 at prices which I'm sure you then opined were "very-well priced" feel right about now. Your comment about well-priced homes being a good investment is tautological. Current prices are far, far from being well-priced. I'm sure you disagree, like all your fellow brethren cheerleaders.

(3) Your no-brainer investment was actually a rental. You ignored the risk of price stagnation/depreciation because you drank the cool aid that home prices would never go down and that rent/price ratios don't matter. You likely still believe that "over the long run" home prices would never go down. Tell that to the poor guy who bought a Summerbrooke house for 220/sq ft in 2006; the same one that has a current value of 120/sq ft and is dropping like a stone by the minute.

(4) What makes you think that if mortgage rates substantially increase, that that itself wouldn't cause a further reduction in demand for housing which would cause a further reduction in prices? This is further evidence of your bias. All of a sudden home prices would magically become insensitive to mortgage rates. What do you think would happen to prices if mortgage rates went to 8%? I know you're smarter than that, but I can't tell whether you are being deceitful or just blinded by your emotional investment in the issue.

(5) I'll check back in 6 months and we can see who's right. I say prices down another 20% and you like Hank Paulson will be calling the bottom for the 78th time.

Posted on Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 at 9:18pm.

Steve wrote: Greg,

I don’t think you’re being fair. Like you, I am a housing bear; I think home prices will continue to drop both locally and nationally. I can give you endless reasons why real estate is not a good investment going during the near term.

With that being said, I wonder if you have been reading Joe’s blog long. If you look at his posts at least the data presentation portion tends to be very objective – especially relative to any other blogs maintained by a Realtor. Sure, the conclusions of his analysis tend to be much more optimistic than you and I. However, relative to every other Realtor’s blog, which are filled with reckless Pollyannaish predictions, Joe’s analysis is always tempered with a level of conservatism.

The thing I like most about Joe’s blog is he presents the data both good and bad, something I have never seen another Realtor do. Most will only present positive data while completely omitting anything even remotely negative. And, I am thankful for Joe’s work because there certainly is no one else out there giving us the data – good and bad -- on Tallahassee’s real estate market. Just look at this particular post – how often have you seen a Realtor show a price graph like the one in this post?

And, if you need any more evidence of Joe’s relative objectivity, just look at your two comments. Joe did not need to post your comments. He could have just deleted them just like most other Realtors do to every critical remark I have ever left on a Realtor’s blog. At least Joe is willing to openly debate the direction of the market.

What do you expect from a Realtor’s blog? Do you expect to have a similar tone as Thehousingbublbleblog.com or Patrick.net (two other blogs I read daily)? Joe is in the business of selling homes and you should expect his tone to be optimistic towards real estate. If you were in the market for a Realtor to buy, sell, or even rent a home, would you want to use someone who was overly pessimistic about the future for real estate?

As a disclaimer, I have never met Joe. So, this isn’t one of his buddies coming to his defense. I’m just a fan of his blog, even if we don’t always agree on the direction of the market.

Joe,

Keep up the good work; I appreciated. And, just so you know, I have sent many Tallahassee residents to your site. Hopefully, it will eventually pay off for you in sales. I know when I am back in the market to buy real estate, I will be contacting you (Don’t get too excited; I think Tally’s bottom is still two years off. So, it will be a while).

Thanks.

Posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 at 1:26pm.

Anna wrote: Perhaps the most comforting point I've read, Greg, is that you'll check back in the next 6 months. Please wait that long or longer. Let the rest of us have intelligent debates without emotion and attacks.

Also, your own statement that a home in Ox Bottom that once sold for $220/sq is now only worth $120/sq shows a decline of nearly 50%! Per your report Meredith Whitney predicted a 40% decline. Therefore, your own example states that we're at the bottom of the market.

Now, I'm not too naive to believe that we're at the bottom of the market, and most people, including yourself and Joe, agree. I do appreciate exact data from the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog so that I can form my own educated opinion.

Finally, one point that I think everyone overlooks is America's spending habits. We all agree that some buyers and sellers will make a move in the market no matter what is happening, e.g., job relocation, divorce decree that stipulates selling home, death in family, etc. The discretionary buyers, i,e. those who don't have to move but would like to, have been told (and rightly so) not to buy in 2007, 2008, and likely 2009. Will the average American really choose to put off what they want to purchase for 3 years? Can we trust that Americans really will wait until the right time to buy? It is my opinion that if the financial markets show more liquidity, many people who have waited to purchase a home since the beginning of 2007 will decide to make their move. And, if I'm wrong, I'm sure there will be many people to let me know...

Posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 at 3:02pm.

Tom wrote: I sense the frustration on here from people, like myself, who bought and are stuck with depreciating properties (mine bought in 2006). It's unfortunate, it hurts, and there's not a lot to be done. I certainly don't blame my agent. There are things that could have been done, but at the end of the day, he got me the property I wanted at the best possible price.

I DO blame the closing days of the Clinton administration, when Freddie and Fannie were given cart blanche freedom to administer loans. In fact, the New York Times saw the handwriting on the wall even then (Sept 30, 1999), arguing that a bailout would be required. It's sad.

Posted on Wednesday, October 8th, 2008 at 3:21pm.

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