The Real Estate Trend Is Still Towards Declining Home Sales

Posted by Joe Manausa on Friday, May 15th, 2009 at 10:32am.

I believe that the stages that the Tallahassee real estate market must go through to complete the market correction are both predetermined as well as predictable. The key is to pay attention to home inventory changes and buyer activity, as we do both daily here at the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog.

Real estate trends do not change overnight, so we should be able to see them coming. If we know what part of the cycle that we currently are working through, then we should know what the next change will look like.

Real Estate Market Forecast

It is knowing the five sequential phases in a market turn that allows us to anticipate these current and future real estate market changes.

check-box-in-tallahassee-real-estate-market-report

Home Inventory changes from a growth trend to a reduction trend.

check-box-in-tallahassee-real-estate-market-report

Home values fall at an accelerating rate.

empty-check-box-in-tallahassee-real-estate-market-report

Year over year home sales increase.

empty-check-box-in-tallahassee-real-estate-market-report

Home inventory levels reach market stability at 6 months of supply.

empty-check-box-in-tallahassee-real-estate-market-report

Home Values stop falling and begin to rise.

Real Estate Trend Continues Downward In Tallahassee

Unfortunately, we have to report that home sales declined 37% in April as compared to April of last year. The remarkable streak of 34 straight months of declines continues in Tallahassee, even while some of the larger markets nationwide are seeing year over year growth in home sales.

year-over-year-home-sales-report-tallahassee-florida

When will this streak end...it is hard to say exactly, but we will know. By monitoring the one-year trend of daily buyer activity (posted on The Market Bulletin), we will know when the buyer trend turns upward and we should be able to predict the month that will show a year-over-year increase in home sales in Tallahassee. But when we look at the real estate graph above, we are clearly in the longest continual trend ever recorded in the past 20 years, either good or bad. Even in a market with a clear trend (such as our current downward trend) to have months that oppose the trend. I suspect we need to have a few of those before we see the third phase of our real estate market turn.

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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Joe Manausa Real Estate. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
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Joe Manausa, MBA is a 26 year veteran of real estate brokerage in Tallahassee, Florida and has owned and managed his own company since 1992. He is a daily blogger with content that focuses on real estate analytics and providing his clients with a tactical advantage in today's challenging market.

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